Notes
最近半年团队主要研究 #AI 和 #RWA 赛道比较多，被问及最多的问题：‘#AI 是不是已经过了最热的“炒作期”？’，因为我们看到很多 #AI 加密项目或股票，貌似涨速有点慢或者不涨了！
我的看法是——远远没有。现在的 #AI，差不多就相当于1995年、1996年互联网的阶段。那时候大家刚开始上网，浏览器才出来没几年，亚马逊、谷歌都还没真正爆发，但趋势已经很清晰了。#AI 现在也差不多这样，刚进入加速成长期。
🧐为何这么说？
1️⃣算力依旧是瓶颈，也是最大机会，做AI要训练大模型，需要巨量的算力。美国这边有英伟达，芯片卖到断货。中国这边因为美国的出口管制，反而倒逼出一条本土产业链。比如寒武纪（Cambricon）这种公司，股价和市值都翻了好几倍。背后逻辑很简单：没有芯片，AI走不动。这就是最底层的“铲子生意”。我自己投股票的时候，最看重这种“确定性刚需”，不管AI应用做得怎么样，算力永远少不了。
2️⃣中国的“Buy China”逻辑，中美关系其实是把“双刃剑”。美国不卖顶级芯片给中国，看似是打压，但反过来成了国产替代的超级机会。没有封锁，中国的AI公司可能还在用英伟达的GPU，也不会有动力自己研发芯片。现在反而逼出了一个完整的国产生态。我在看中国半导体、算力相关公司的时候，这一点就是核心逻辑：自给自足是国家战略，市场够大，需求也刚性。
3️⃣政府是超级风投，你要看中国的模式，其实很像10年前的新能源车。那时候政府补贴电池、补贴买车，硬是把比亚迪、宁德时代推起来了。现在AI和机器人也一样，地方政府出补贴、投基金，相当于官方当“早期VC”，先给产业打地基。剩下的就交给企业家去拼执行力。作为投资人，我的判断是：政府方向决定赛道，企业家决定龙头。
投资的衡量标准，我们看一个AI或者机器人项目，最关键是两个问题：
✅它能不能真正解决痛点？比如机器人，能不能真的在家庭里帮老人、能不能在仓库里搬货，不是光好看、噱头大。
✅它有没有产品市场匹配度（PMF）？就是说，这个产品是刚需，还是锦上添花？如果只是“看上去很酷”，但没人愿意为它买单，那就不行。在AI模型上也是一样。现在模型满大街都是，但能真正跑通商业模式的，要么解决企业的需求（比如代码自动化、办公提效），要么解决消费者的需求（比如智能助手、娱乐）。我投项目时，最怕那种“炫技”型公司，看上去技术牛，但没落地场景。
长期趋势我判断，未来3-5年里，AI算力的需求会是现在的10倍甚至100倍。这意味着：
· 上游的芯片、算力基础设施公司，还是最稳的“吃肉”位置。
· 中游的大模型会越来越分化，能落地的会脱颖而出，光靠堆钱堆算力的可能会被淘汰。
· 下游的应用场景（比如机器人），现在看起来还早，但一旦找到像电动车那样的突破口，成长会非常惊人。
所以我们在 #AI 赛道的投资思路：
第一层：算力/芯片 → 确定性最强，国家战略支持，需求无限大(加密也是类似逻辑，分布式GPU算力依旧有空间)。
第二层：大模型 → 拼资源和落地场景，要慎重挑选，差距很快拉开。
第三层：应用（机器人等） → 风险大，但如果踩中龙头，可能是百倍回报。
所以我现在看AI，就像看当年的互联网和新能源车。远远没到泡沫破灭的时候，反而刚刚进入“加速跑道”。🧐
#AI 时代，👇是我们比较看好的美股 #AI 公司：
最近英伟达老板黄仁勋提到，我们仍处于人工智能的早期阶段。现阶段仍然处于超大规模企业部署阶段，属于第二阶段，如👇图。
• 第一阶段(核心基础设施)： $NVDA ， $ASML ， $AMD ， $TSM ， $AVGO ， $NBIS
• 第二阶段(超大规模企业)： $MSFT ， $META ， $GOOGL ， $AMZN
• 第三阶段(平台型)： $PLTR ， $NOW ， $TEM ， $CRWD ， $NET
• 第四阶段(应用集成)： $SPOT ， $SHOP ， $NFLX ， $TSLA ， $LMND ， $FIG
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🔸 Consumer Internet: $BABA, $AAPL, $META, $BIDU, $RBLX
🔸 Cybersecurity: $PANW, $ZS, $CRWD
🔸 Autonomous/Robotics & Power: $TSLA, $OKLO, $GEV
🔸 Semiconductors/Hardware: $NVDA, $AMD, $TSM, $AVGO, $MU, $NBIS
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#Downgrades - Dec 13, 2024
• $AMPL: KeyBanc Downgrades to Sector Weight from Overweight
• $BLD: Seaport Global Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $BOLD: Guggenheim Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $DHI: JPMorgan Downgrades to Underweight from Neutral - PT $156 (from $188)
• $EDIT: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $3 (from $11)
• $EDIT: Truist Securities Downgrades to Hold from Buy
• $EGHT: Mizuho Downgrades to Underperform from Neutral - PT $2.50 (from $2.75)
• $FOLD: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $12 (from $17)
• $HGV: Barclays Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $41 (from $44)
• $IBP: Seaport Global Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $IMCR: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $35 (from $74)
• $IMRX: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight
• $MNDY: KeyBanc Downgrades to Sector Weight from Overweight
• $NDSN: Baird Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $237 (from $294)
• $NOW: KeyBanc Downgrades to Sector Weight from Overweight
• $RHP: JPMorgan Downgrades to Underweight from Neutral - PT $100
• $RNG: Mizuho Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $42
• $TOL: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $150 (from $166)
• $VIK: Barclays Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $49
• $WFRD: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $98
• $ZI: KeyBanc Downgrades to Underweight from Sector Weight - PT $10
#Upgrades - Oct 18, 2024
$ACI: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $23 (from $22)
$BAC: Phillip Securities Upgrades to Accumulate from Neutral - PT $44
$CLW: RBC Capital Upgrades to Outperform from Sector Perform - PT $37 (from $48)
$CTBI: Raymond James Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $60
$DDOG: UBS Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $150 (from $125)
$ECL: Jefferies Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $310 (from $235)
$NOW: OTR Global Upgrades to Positive from Mixed
$TYRA: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $31
$VCTR: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Equalweight from Underweight - PT $60 (from $40)