Top Gainer Stocks: 1st-hour's after the market opens 🔥 📊 SHOP, CRM, NOW, PG, and GOOGL are climbing the charts. Highlights: 🛍️ $SHOP goes up as ChatGPT allows shoppers to buy on merchants like Shopify and Walmart. 💻 $CRM rises after Salesforce announce a $60+ Billion revenue target in 2030.

最近半年团队主要研究 #AI 和 #RWA 赛道比较多，被问及最多的问题：‘#AI 是不是已经过了最热的“炒作期”？’，因为我们看到很多 #AI 加密项目或股票，貌似涨速有点慢或者不涨了！ 我的看法是——远远没有。现在的 #AI，差不多就相当于1995年、1996年互联网的阶段。那时候大家刚开始上网，浏览器才出来没几年，亚马逊、谷歌都还没真正爆发，但趋势已经很清晰了。#AI 现在也差不多这样，刚进入加速成长期。 🧐为何这么说？ 1️⃣算力依旧是瓶颈，也是最大机会，做AI要训练大模型，需要巨量的算力。美国这边有英伟达，芯片卖到断货。中国这边因为美国的出口管制，反而倒逼出一条本土产业链。比如寒武纪（Cambricon）这种公司，股价和市值都翻了好几倍。背后逻辑很简单：没有芯片，AI走不动。这就是最底层的“铲子生意”。我自己投股票的时候，最看重这种“确定性刚需”，不管AI应用做得怎么样，算力永远少不了。 2️⃣中国的“Buy China”逻辑，中美关系其实是把“双刃剑”。美国不卖顶级芯片给中国，看似是打压，但反过来成了国产替代的超级机会。没有封锁，中国的AI公司可能还在用英伟达的GPU，也不会有动力自己研发芯片。现在反而逼出了一个完整的国产生态。我在看中国半导体、算力相关公司的时候，这一点就是核心逻辑：自给自足是国家战略，市场够大，需求也刚性。 3️⃣政府是超级风投，你要看中国的模式，其实很像10年前的新能源车。那时候政府补贴电池、补贴买车，硬是把比亚迪、宁德时代推起来了。现在AI和机器人也一样，地方政府出补贴、投基金，相当于官方当“早期VC”，先给产业打地基。剩下的就交给企业家去拼执行力。作为投资人，我的判断是：政府方向决定赛道，企业家决定龙头。 投资的衡量标准，我们看一个AI或者机器人项目，最关键是两个问题： ✅它能不能真正解决痛点？比如机器人，能不能真的在家庭里帮老人、能不能在仓库里搬货，不是光好看、噱头大。 ✅它有没有产品市场匹配度（PMF）？就是说，这个产品是刚需，还是锦上添花？如果只是“看上去很酷”，但没人愿意为它买单，那就不行。在AI模型上也是一样。现在模型满大街都是，但能真正跑通商业模式的，要么解决企业的需求（比如代码自动化、办公提效），要么解决消费者的需求（比如智能助手、娱乐）。我投项目时，最怕那种“炫技”型公司，看上去技术牛，但没落地场景。 长期趋势我判断，未来3-5年里，AI算力的需求会是现在的10倍甚至100倍。这意味着： · 上游的芯片、算力基础设施公司，还是最稳的“吃肉”位置。 · 中游的大模型会越来越分化，能落地的会脱颖而出，光靠堆钱堆算力的可能会被淘汰。 · 下游的应用场景（比如机器人），现在看起来还早，但一旦找到像电动车那样的突破口，成长会非常惊人。 所以我们在 #AI 赛道的投资思路： 第一层：算力/芯片 → 确定性最强，国家战略支持，需求无限大(加密也是类似逻辑，分布式GPU算力依旧有空间)。 第二层：大模型 → 拼资源和落地场景，要慎重挑选，差距很快拉开。 第三层：应用（机器人等） → 风险大，但如果踩中龙头，可能是百倍回报。 所以我现在看AI，就像看当年的互联网和新能源车。远远没到泡沫破灭的时候，反而刚刚进入“加速跑道”。🧐

#AI 时代，👇是我们比较看好的美股 #AI 公司： 最近英伟达老板黄仁勋提到，我们仍处于人工智能的早期阶段。现阶段仍然处于超大规模企业部署阶段，属于第二阶段，如👇图。 • 第一阶段(核心基础设施)： $NVDA ， $ASML ， $AMD ， $TSM ， $AVGO ， $NBIS • 第二阶段(超大规模企业)： $MSFT ， $META ， $GOOGL ， $AMZN • 第三阶段(平台型)： $PLTR ， $NOW ， $TEM ， $CRWD ， $NET • 第四阶段(应用集成)： $SPOT ， $SHOP ， $NFLX ， $TSLA ， $LMND ， $FIG

$SHOP 10%+ today 85c May calls @ 8.75 -> 14.00+

#Upgrades - Dec 06, 2024 • $ACN: Goldman Sachs Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $420 (from $370) • $ASAN: KeyBanc Upgrades to Sector Weight from Underweight • $BRX: BMO Capital Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $33 • $DG: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Underperform - PT $95 • $EPAM: Goldman Sachs Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $295 (from $235) • $FTI: Jefferies Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $40 (from $29) • $KC: UBS Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $12.50 (from $4.20) • $PCH: BMO Capital Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $51 • $PJT: UBS Upgrades to Neutral from Sell - PT $175 (from $130) • $PTON: UBS Upgrades to Neutral from Sell - PT $10 (from $2.50) • $PUMP: JPMorgan Upgrades to Neutral from Underweight - PT $10 • $RIG: JPMorgan Upgrades to Neutral from Underweight - PT $5 • $RSG: BMO Capital Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $238 • $SHOP: Loop Capital Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $140 • $SITE: Jefferies Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $175 (from $145) • $TKR: Jefferies Upgrades to Buy from Hold • $WSBC: Raymond James Upgrades to Strong Buy from Outperform - PT $44 (from $35) • $WY: BMO Capital Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $38

🔸 SHOPIFY- SHOPIFY MERCHANTS GOT $11.5 BLN IN SALES OVER BLACK FRIDAY-CYBER MONDAY WEEKEND - UP 24% $SHOP

#Downgrades - Nov 21, 2024 • $ADNT: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $24 (from $30) • $GRAB: China Renaissance Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $5.40 • $RBC: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $335 (from $330) • $SHOP: DZ Bank Downgrades to Sell from Hold • $TRV: Janney Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $280 • $ULTA: William Blair Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform • $WMT: DZ Bank Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $91 • $XPEV: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $12.50 (from $11.70)

#Downgrades - Nov 13, 2024 • $AE: B.Riley Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $38 (from $45) • $ANGI: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $2.50 (from $3.25) • $ANGI: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $2 (from $3.25) • $ARCH: Jefferies Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $165 (from $155) • $BCAB: H.C. Wainwright Downgrades to Neutral from Buy • $CAT: Evercore ISI Downgrades to Underperform from In Line - PT $365 (from $321) • $CCLD: Roth/MKM Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $3.50 (from $5) • $COTY: TD Cowen Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $8.50 (from $11) • $CPT: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $121 (from $120) • $DOCS: Canaccord Genuity Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $60 (from $40) • $ESAB: Evercore ISI Downgrades to Underperform from In Line - PT $122 (from $102) • $ETN: Evercore ISI Downgrades to In Line from Outperform - PT $389 (from $333) • $IP: BNP Paribas Downgrades to Underperform from Neutral - PT $48.20 • $ITW: Evercore ISI Downgrades to Underperform from In Line - PT $255 (from $246) • $MASS: Leerink Partners Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $4 • $PGNY: Truist Securities Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $19 (from $26) • $RAPT: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $2 (from $7) • $SBUX: Redburn-Atlantic Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $77 (from $84) • $SHOP: ATB Capital Markets Downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform • $SOUN: Ladenburg Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $7 • $SPOT: Phillip Securities Downgrades to Accumulate from Buy - PT $485 (from $420) • $SVRA: Evercore ISI Downgrades to In Line from Outperform - PT $5 (from $7) • $SYRS: Brookline Capital Markets Downgrades to Hold from Buy • $SYRS: H.C. Wainwright Downgrades at Neutral from Buy - PT $1 (from $6) • $SYRS: JMP Securities Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform • $SYRS: TD Cowen Downgrades to Hold from Buy • $TNK: BofA Securities Downgrades to Underperform from Neutral - PT $46 (from $51) • $WMS: Stephens Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $135

US-LISTED SHARES OF SHOPIFY UP 11.5% PREMARKET AFTER Q3 REV BEAT

$SHOP RESULTS: Q3 🔸 Revenue $2.16B, +26% y/y, EST $2.12B 🔸 Monthly recurring revenue $175M, EST $173.6M 🔸 Merchant Solutions revenue $1.55B, +26% y/y, EST $1.52B 🔸 Subscription revenue $610M, +26% y/y, EST $599M 🔸 Gross merchandise volume $69.72B, +24% y/y, EST $67.78B COMMENTARY AND CONTEXT 🔸 Sees Q4 Rev. Growing at Mid-to-High-Twenties Percentage 🔸 Sees Q4 Free Cash Flow Margin Similar to Q4 2023 🔸 Sees Q4 Revenue to Grow at A Mid-to-High-Twenties % Y/Y 🔸 Sees Q4 Opex as Percentage of Revenue 32% to 33% 🔸 Sees Q4 Gross Profit up at A Y/Y Rate Similar to Q3

#Upgrades - Sep 17, 2024 $ALRS: Raymond James Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $24 $APP: UBS Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $145 (from $100) $BANC: Raymond James Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $16 $BNTX: Jefferies Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $150 (from $96) $CURV: William Blair Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform $DCOM: Raymond James Upgrades to Strong Buy from Outperform - PT $35 (from $29) $ETR: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $138 (from $115) $GCI: Citi Upgrades to Neutral from Sell - PT $5.10 $GEV: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $300 (from $200) $HPE: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $24 (from $21) $LIVN: Baird Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $66 (from $55) $LSCC: Stifel Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $55 $NYCB: Raymond James Upgrades to Market Perform from Underperform $RLMD: Jefferies Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $13 (from $3.50) $SHOP: Redburn-Atlantic Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $99 $SNV: Raymond James Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform $TCBI: Raymond James Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform $VBTX: Raymond James Upgrades to Strong Buy from Market Perform