Notes
v神半年前打的那个nft发币了 真他妈畜生 卖了1000多e 现在开盘加1e池子 纯割子 @VitalikButerin 你在搞什么啊哥？支持这种畜生项目
🚨 MORNING BID 🚨
🔸 Bumble ( $BMBL):
Q4 rev -4.4% YoY to $261.6M (est. $260.5M).
Q1 guide: $242M-$248M (below $256.9M est.), follows weak MTCH outlook.
🔸 Canadian Tire: Selling Helly Hansen to Kontoor Brands ( $KTB) for C$1.28B ($901.2M).
🔸 IFF ( $IFF):
Q4 adj. EPS $0.97 (est. $0.81), adj. EBITDA $471M (est. $458M) on $2.8B sales (est. $2.677B).
FY guide: sales $10.6B-$10.9B (est. $11.158B), adj. EBITDA $2.0B-$2.15B (est. $2.213B).
🔸 La-Z-Boy ( $LZB):
Q3 adj. EPS $0.68 (in-line), sales $522M (est. $516.54M).
Q4 guide: sales $545M-$565M (est. $565.47M), adj. op margin 8.5%-9.5%.
🔸 Toll Brothers ( $TOL):
Q1 EPS $1.75 (est. $2.04), revs $1.86B (est. $1.906B).
Q2 guide: deliveries 2,500-2,700 units, avg. price $940K-$960K. FY deliveries 11,200-11,600, avg. price $945K-$965K.
🔸 TrueCar ( $TRUE):
Q4 loss (-$0.07) vs. est. (-$0.02), revs $46.2M (est. $47.3M).
Expects Q1 rev growth in high single digits, Q1 adj. EBITDA loss ~$5M, but strong Q2-Q4 outlook w/ growing OEM incentives.
🔸 Wolverine ( $WWW):
Q4 adj. EPS $0.42 (in-line), revs $494.7M (est. $485.74M).
Gross margin up on lower costs, inventory down 35.6% YoY to $241M.
🔸 Devon Energy ( $DVN):
Q4 EPS $1.16 (est. $1.00), revs $4.4B (est. $4.25B). Q4 oil production 398K bpd.
FY25 capex $3.8B-$4.0B (50% to Delaware Basin). FY25 prod. 805K-825K boe/d, Q1 oil 380K-386K bpd.
🔸 EQT Corp. ( $EQT):
Q4 EPS $0.69 (est. $0.49), adj. EBITDA $1.41B (est. $1.2B), revs $1.62B (est. $1.77B).
FY25 FCF $2.6B-$3.3B, net debt ~$7B.
🔸 Magnolia Oil & Gas ( $MGY):
Q4 EPS $0.44 (est. $0.45), adj. EBITDA $235.8M (est. $230.1M), revs $326.6M (est. $325.2M).
FY25 capex $460M-$490M, production +5-7%.
🔸 Matador ( $MTDR):
Q4 EPS $1.83 (est. $1.75); raises div. 25% to $1.25 annually.
Record oil production 99.8K bpd (+32% YoY).
FY25 oil prod. 120K-124K boe/d, nat gas 492M-504M cf/d.
🔸 Occidental ( $OXY):
Q4 EPS $0.80 (est. $0.70), revs $6.76B (est. $7.14B).
Hikes div. 9% to $0.24/share. Q1 prod. 1.37M-1.41M boe/d, FY25 1.385M-1.445M boe/d. Focus on debt reduction.
🔸 Shift4 ( $FOUR):
Acquiring Global Blue (GB) for $7.50/share (15% premium, ~$2.5B EV).
Q4 EPS $1.35 (est. $1.14), revs $887M (est. $1.006B).
FY25 adj. EBITDA guide: $830M-$855M (est. $864.2M).
🔸 Compass ( $COMP):
Q4 loss (-$0.08) vs. est. (-$0.07), revs $1.38B (est. $1.32B).
Q1 revs $1.35B-$1.475B (est. $1.34B), Q1 adj. EBITDA $11M-$25M.
🔸 CoStar ( $CSGP):
Q4 EPS $0.15 (est. $0.23), revs $709M (est. $703M).
FY rev +11% YoY, Q4 net income +13%, EBITDA +43%.
Approved $500M stock buyback.
🔸 XP Inc. ( $XP):
Q4 EPS $2.23 (est. $2.20), revs $4.49B (est. $4.45B).
Adj. ROAE 23.4%, adj. ROTE 29.2%.
🔸 Halozyme ( $HALO):
Q4 EPS $1.06 (est. $1.16), revs $298M (est. $288.2M).
FY25 revs $1.15B-$1.225B (est. $1.188B), adj. EBITDA $755M-$805M (est. $772.4M), adj. EPS $4.95-$5.35 (est. $4.90).
🔸 Penumbra ( $PEN):
Q4 EPS $0.97 (est. $0.90), revs $315.5M (est. $311.5M).
FY25 revs $1.34B-$1.36B (est. $1.362B), gross margin +100bps, op margin 13%-14%.
🔸 Petco ( $WOOF):
Announced three new execs to drive operational improvements, naming Sabrina Simmons as CFO.
🔸 Supernus ( $SUPN):
Shares drop after SPN-820 Phase 2b trial for treatment-resistant depression failed to meet primary endpoint.
🔸 Celanese ( $CE):
Q4 EPS $1.45 (est. $1.20), revs $2.4B (est. $2.36B).
Q1 EPS guide $0.25-$0.50 (est. $1.65) due to non-recurring costs.
Sees continued demand/pricing weakness in key markets.
🔸 Element Solutions ( $ESI):
Q4 EPS $0.35 (in-line), revs $624.2M (est. $595.8M).
🔸 Flowserve ( $FLS):
Q4 EPS $0.70 (est. $0.77), revs $1.18B (est. $1.21B)
bookings $1.2B, adj. gross margin 32.8%. Guides FY sales +5-7% (est. +8.57%)
EPS $3.10-$3.30 (est. $3.25).
🔸 Sonoco ( $SON):
Q4 EPS $1.00 (est. $1.20), revs $1.36B (est. $1.67B).
FY25 EPS $6.00-$6.20 (est. $6.40), adj. EBITDA $1.3B-$1.4B.
🔸 Arista Networks ( $ANET):
Q4 adj. EPS $0.65 (est. $0.57), revs $1.93B (est. $1.904B)
adj. gross margin 64.2%. Guides Q1 revs $1.93B-$1.97B (est. $1.907B)
adj. gross margin ~63%, adj. op margin ~44%.
🔸 Cadence Design Systems ( $CDNS):
Q4 adj. EPS $1.88 (est. $1.82), revs $1.356B (est. $1.35B).
FY25 adj. EPS $6.65-$6.75 (below est. $6.82), revs $5.14B-$5.22B (est. $5.25B)
Q4 op margin 46.0% (vs. 42.9% YoY).
🔸 MicroStrategy ( $MSTR): Offering $2B in convertible bonds due 2030 for general purposes, including Bitcoin acquisition.
🔸 Unisys ( $UIS): Q4 EPS $0.33 (est. $0.30), revs $545.4M (est. $550.93M)
Sees 2025 rev growth 0.5%-2.5%, non-GAAP op margin 6.5%-8.5%.
🔸 NetEase ( $NTES): Fears of unloading all its overseas U.S. game holdings due to rising costs, coinciding with China’s retaliation to U.S. tariffs.
🔸 Waystar ( $WAY): Files to sell 18M shares of common stock.
V 神參與投資的 Base 鏈上 Polymarket @Truemarketsorg $TRUE
詳細的差異可以參考拉麵的文章
純粹從估值來看，NFT 持有者可以瓜分 40% 的代幣，按照 0.2e 的地板價來看，估值也就 25m
同賽道的 Polymarket 總共融了 74m，大家知道估值可是能按照 5x ~ 10x 去推算 TGE 的 FDV 的
V 神參與投資的 Base 鏈上 Polymarket @Truemarketsorg $TRUE
詳細的差異可以參考拉麵的文章
純粹從估值來看，NFT 持有者可以瓜分 40% 的代幣，按照 0.2e 的地板價來看，估值也就 25m
同賽道的 Polymarket 總共融了 74m，大家知道估值可是能按照 5x ~ 10x 去推算 TGE 的 FDV 的
只能說，相信、購買、持有，與 V 神同車
自己持有一些貨準備澆給你們，快買吧
V 神 400 個、孫窺賊 400 個各種老鑽石直接鎖倉了，實際流通更少
https://t.co/0vFaej0FOM
