We’ve all heard this one before: “If I can just break even, I’m selling.” After a long time, Bitcoin finally reached the average entry level of many who bought into the Trump hype. Naturally, that’s a key level. We broke above it yesterday and today we’re seeing some selling pressure. Totally normal. ➡️ But does any of this help altcoins? Not really. Sure, I could post rockets and scream “altcoin season!” for the engagement. But the reality has been clear for over a year now. Let’s look at the flows: In just the last two days, spot ETFs saw nearly $1 billion of net inflows each day. - $381M on Monday - $912M on Tuesday - $917M on Wednesday How much of that is flowing into altcoins? Almost none. And this isn’t my opinion. It’s just how the mechanics work. ➡️ So what would actually change this? The real driver for an altcoin cycle isn’t ETF flows. It’s broader liquidity coming into the crypto space, especially through exchanges. But we haven’t seen that consistently for the last 18 months. MVRV and SOPR data have been telling the same story. I won’t get into the details here, but the signal hasn’t flipped yet. ✅ Until the data says otherwise, three things remain true: 1- Most of the new liquidity is staying in Bitcoin 2- The new wave of investors is more conservative, taking less risk 3- Long term holders are selling early, killing momentum before it builds ⚠️ And just as I was writing this, an on chain alert popped up. Heavy Coinbase outflows, likely another round of institutional buying. It aligns perfectly with the recent price action and this entire thesis. TL;DR: The money is flowing into bitcoin, not altcoins The data hasn’t flipped No real altseason until we see real liquidity hitting exchanges Are you positioned for the market we’re in, or the one you’re hoping for?