What’s NUPL signaling right now? In both 2017 and 2021, it marked the cycle tops. Now we’re back at that same setup. If what happened twice in the last 18 months happens again… where does Bitcoin turn? 1️⃣ What is NUPL, really? Let’s skip the technical definition. Right now, NUPL is at 0.57. For simplicity, assume NUPL = 0.50 and BTC market cap = $2T. That implies: Around $1T has flowed into the network The entire market is up ~100% unrealized gains 2️⃣ So what happened recently? Twice in the past year - post-ETF and post-Trump hype NUPL hit 0.60 and then pulled back. Why? Because risk appetite wasn’t strong enough. Early buyers didn’t wait for a 3-4x. They took profits fast. That’s the defining trait of this cycle so far. 3️⃣ Why? Wall Street and corporates. There’s a key distinction here. Wall Street isn’t buying BTC for themselves. They’re routing ETF inflows to resell to clients. So the real risk sits with the buyers. Meanwhile, corporate buyers (like MicroStrategy or Tesla) hold Bitcoin on their own balance sheet. Totally different game. Wall Street is happy with +150%. Saylor & Co? Not selling at all. If we turn again from here? ✅ We could top out around $127K, based on on-chain behavior. That’s not TA. It’s blockchain data. To break past that level with strength, two things need to change: Retail has to return Risk-on mindset has to grow So far, neither has happened. ETF hype and political narratives brought in flows - but not sticky new demand. And the big players started distributing early. Unless that shifts, this cycle might play out differently than people expect. Long-term holders still aren’t distributing (see chart). But when they do, it won’t be quiet...