According to ARK’s Q1 2026 report, Bitcoin held by “conviction buyers” increased by 69% this quarter. From 2.13M BTC to 3.60M BTC. The highest level since 2020. And this happened while the market was weak. That is the part people should pay attention to. Price was down around 22%. Sentiment was terrible. Fear was everywhere. A lot of people were watching the chart and thinking the same thing they always think during ugly periods: Maybe this time is different. But onchain, a different group was doing the opposite. They were not selling. They were adding. Around 1.47M BTC moved into the hands of conviction buyers during the quarter. That tells you something about the structure of this market. There are basically two layers now. One layer watches the screen, reacts to volatility, gets shaken out by fear and tries to time every move. The other layer does not seem to care much about short-term noise. They accumulate when liquidity appears. And the second layer is getting larger. You can also see the same dynamic from the institutional side. Strategy alone bought around 85,000 BTC in Q1. Miners produce roughly 450 BTC per day. At different points, institutions were absorbing more than 1,000 BTC per day. That is more than new supply coming into the market. At the same time, exchange reserves have been falling toward levels we have not seen since 2019. So the simple picture is this: available supply is getting tighter, while the strongest buyers are still not behaving like they are done. That does not mean price has to go up in a straight line. Bitcoin can still drop. Macro can still get ugly. Geopolitics can still shock the market. And leverage can always create forced selling. But structurally, this is not the same market as a few years ago. The buyers are different. The supply profile is different. The macro backdrop is different. The US is sitting on massive debt, geopolitical risk keeps rising, and global uncertainty is not exactly disappearing. In that environment, someone quietly accumulated another 1.47M BTC while everyone else was arguing about fear. That does not feel random to me. It feels like positioning.
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Disclaimer: The above content reflects only the author's opinion and does not represent any stance of CoinNX, nor does it constitute any investment advice related to CoinNX.

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