I think the more important question here is not the war itself, but the type of market structure BTC entered the event with. Was Bitcoin already inside a strong trend when the conflict started? Or was the market already losing momentum and showing signs of exhaustion beforehand? That distinction matters a lot. Because if you look at the 60 days leading into the event, the current structure does not really resemble a market in full expansion mode. Momentum was already fading and the market was starting to weaken before the geopolitical shock arrived. That’s why the current setup probably looks closer to the 2014 Crimea annexation, 2022 Ukraine invasion and 2020 Soleimani period than people realize. On the chart: → left side = 60 days before the event → middle = beginning of the war / geopolitical event → right side = price action up to today The dashed extensions show how those historical periods continued afterward from roughly the same point we are currently at today. Of course no historical analogue is perfect. But market context before the event usually matters much more than the headline itself.