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Numerous short squeezes going on in low caps listed on @binance futures
$nkn $magic $voxel $alpaca
Careful if you have shorts opened in these. Some of them are < $10M or even < $5M
And start looking for potential setups
is this the first native crypto app that lets you buy stocks & ETFs onchain?
seems 1:1 backed offchain + SEC compliant + TradFi liquidity
didn't know this was an option already. Surprised with all the noise that Ondo was making and there's a small app already offering it lol
powered by @DinariGlobal for tokenized RWAs, app is @massdotmoney
is there any other alternative out there to try out as well?
CPI estimated at 2.5%
Last time we had a 2.5% print was in Oct’24, before it started to trend upwards again.
Even if it comes below 2.8% it will confirm a downtrend from the 3.0% peak in Feb’25, likely caused by tariffs frontrunning.
The FED changed the tonne in Dec’24 FOMC and was right to pause into what started to be an uncertain situation of inflation becoming sticky, tariffs, trade wars, etc.
If CPI comes at 2.5%, at a moment that deals on tariffs are happening, it should reduce a lot of pressure on inflation increase expectations.
Good thoughts here
1. If USDCNH goes down, it means China is not further devaluating the yuan and likely reversing the decision, which means that negotiations are more likely than further escalation.
Remember one of the things Bessent asked is them not further devaluing cause that’s a tax on others and basically exports deflation to the rest of the world.
Paying attention to the currency may be a good way to try to anticipate what’s going to happen.
2. I agree that betting on a deal offers a more favorable R:R than betting on further escalation, simply based on:
• current market positioning
• price response yesterday
• shift in policy / tonne (admin scaled back, now paying attention to stock and bond markets)
• and higher probabilities of a deal vs further escalation (because that leads to eventual mutual destruction)
Still, tariffs have not been removed and given anything can happen with this admin, I don’t think uncertainty is over yet. But market is looking more positive compared to a few days ago, so focusing your attention on looking for longs will pay off more than being short here.
The best edge you can have right now is to increase your time horizon, have patience, and understand that everything will be fine eventually.
Trying to catch bottoms and immediately make big money short-term is going to go against you.
Regardless of whether you understand the situation or not (probably not), you’ll be fine if you start looking to buy solid positions in a methodological and relaxed way. That means to have a plan, not doing a all-in buy and pray.
I advocate for a barbell of 20/80 of buying peak fear + be reactionary to a change.
1. Peak fear moments and things breaking have proven to be profitable over the years.
Despite numerous calls for this time is different and the world and US system is blowing up, that's simply engagement bait, and it will probably be just fine. No, the US isn’t going down as the first superpower because Trump wanted shoes to be made in the US.
You risk going a little bit lower but if you can hold your positions (like BTC), it can be good value in some months. And if you’re lucky and get a mechanical bounce, you can enjoy some short-term profits.
Simply be strategic, buy at key levels (whether price-wise or event-wise) with money that makes you be comfortable.
2. With that said, this situation cannot be solved by magic, price, or even time (maybe a lot of time). It really needs a catalyst like deals, a shift in policy, or intervention.
So you don’t need to risk your chips even more, you can simply wait for that to happen. You risk not buying the bottom but who cares? At this point you shouldn’t be focused on optimizing every dollar cause that will only lead to more mistakes.
Markets top because things aren’t as good as you think. And they also bottom because things aren’t (at least forever) as bad as you think.
If used wisely, time and patience are your friends.
There’s currently a liquidity event going on, as people speculate someone is blowing up and that’s what’s causing the systemic forced selling of bonds pushing yields up.
Whether that’s Japan or China, someone has to absorb it, assuming the Admin keeps putting pressure on markets.
If the FED were to respond, I don’t think it would focus on rates. This isn’t a problem about borrowing becoming expensive or inflation expectations quickly growing—it’s about trust in the system and a liquidity vacuum that needs filling before the flywheel spins further out of control.
But by who?
These are the main buyers of bonds:
1. The FED
2. US commercial banks
3. Foreigners (central banks, oil exporters, etc)
4. MMFs, pension funds, insurance funds
And only 2 of them are price-insensitive buyers. You guessed it right: the Fed (via QE) and US banks.
Although these are constraint by the current SLR requirement, which forces big banks to hold a certain amount of capital against all assets, including Treasuries.
If we have to guess, I think an SLR exemption is more likely in the short term than full-blown QE, because it:
• addresses (at least partially? temporarily?) the liquidity problem without pumping reserves into the system like QE would.
• is more about deregulation than monetary policy, making it easier to justify politically: "it isn’t stimulus, it’s ensuring liquidity". It aligns with current administration proposals.
• was already done in march 2020 and it worked
• is less market-disruptive than QE, which might further increase inflation expectations
• maintains credibility, as Powell has said in numerous occasions that QE would only be used when rates = 0
Maybe this time it isn’t even called "SLR exemption" and they come up with a new name (they love this), so pay attention to the language and understand what it actually means.
QT fully stopped and SLR exemption enabled to boost market stability and liquidity absorption + pause on rates to maintain credibility about inflation mandate and independence from the Government, with forward-guidance that Fed will do everything in its power to maintain a proper functioning of the credit markets.
If BTC closes below $74k it will be the first time it loses the weekly supertrend since the market bottomed in late 2022 after FTX collapsed. Indeed a full bull market.
You can see the supertrend as a Volatility-Adjusted Moving Average.
But you can also see it as a very solid HTF support. Quite a similar situation now vs. pre-summer 2021.
With that said, I don’t think that pain will be as hard and prolonged as 2022 because this is a political issue, and politicians need to be liked. Maybe not for a specific moment, but they do long-term.
Unlike them, the FED is independent, they are appointment by The President and confirmed by The Senate. They cannot be easily fired, and certainly not due to policy disagreements. They have to do what needs to be done, whether they’re liked or not, and that’s why they’re independent. Of course it’s more nuanced than that with pressure from the Government, Treasury, and the elite, but it didn’t bothered them to crush markets in 2022 during a prolonged period of time. Nasdaq went down almost 40%.
Point is the Admin cannot tolerate as much pressure and if small businesses need to close, unemployment raises, and wealth is reduced significantly, Trump’s popularity will be seriously harmed. Although you never know with this guy, and mid-terms are still far from here.
It’s hard to establish a signal (at least better than big unemployment spikes) but this key difference gives a framework in terms of pain tolerance and time duration.
The reason they’re crushing the markets is to reduce both bond yields and inflation by force — and it's working.
Unlikely that FED comes to save our bags to counteract, they might even be happy. And when they do it can be totally reactionary which is far from what happened in Sep’24 and ineffective to pump markets short-term.
Only thing that would push it imo is a big spike in unemployment. American wealth was already halved in 2022, it can happen again. But when unemployment rises unexpectedly (correlated to credit stress), that's what no one can afford—neither the FED or the Admin—and we can actually talk about QE or YCC to save the markets.
