The best edge you can have right now is to increase your time horizon, have patience, and understand that everything will be fine eventually. Trying to catch bottoms and immediately make big money short-term is going to go against you. Regardless of whether you understand the situation or not (probably not), you’ll be fine if you start looking to buy solid positions in a methodological and relaxed way. That means to have a plan, not doing a all-in buy and pray. I advocate for a barbell of 20/80 of buying peak fear + be reactionary to a change. 1. Peak fear moments and things breaking have proven to be profitable over the years. Despite numerous calls for this time is different and the world and US system is blowing up, that's simply engagement bait, and it will probably be just fine. No, the US isn’t going down as the first superpower because Trump wanted shoes to be made in the US. You risk going a little bit lower but if you can hold your positions (like BTC), it can be good value in some months. And if you’re lucky and get a mechanical bounce, you can enjoy some short-term profits. Simply be strategic, buy at key levels (whether price-wise or event-wise) with money that makes you be comfortable. 2. With that said, this situation cannot be solved by magic, price, or even time (maybe a lot of time). It really needs a catalyst like deals, a shift in policy, or intervention. So you don’t need to risk your chips even more, you can simply wait for that to happen. You risk not buying the bottom but who cares? At this point you shouldn’t be focused on optimizing every dollar cause that will only lead to more mistakes. Markets top because things aren’t as good as you think. And they also bottom because things aren’t (at least forever) as bad as you think. If used wisely, time and patience are your friends.
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