CPI estimated at 2.5%
Last time we had a 2.5% print was in Oct’24, before it started to trend upwards again.
Even if it comes below 2.8% it will confirm a downtrend from the 3.0% peak in Feb’25, likely caused by tariffs frontrunning.
The FED changed the tonne in Dec’24 FOMC and was right to pause into what started to be an uncertain situation of inflation becoming sticky, tariffs, trade wars, etc.
If CPI comes at 2.5%, at a moment that deals on tariffs are happening, it should reduce a lot of pressure on inflation increase expectations.

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