去年12月太空经济板块可以说是中美共振了，美股太空经济几家主力基本上都翻倍了。心头好小火箭RKLB表现也很亮眼。过去一个月对RKLB来说绝对是业务上的超级月：1、拿到了美国太空发展局超过8亿美金，18颗卫星订单。这些卫星还配备卫星配备Rocket Lab的StarLite防护传感器（可防御定向能量威胁），并扩展到向其他承包商供应传感器； 2、同时还拿到加拿大、日本航天机构的新合同； 3、25年全年完成21次Electron火箭发射，年度100%任务成功率（全球小型火箭最活跃）。包括12月为iQPS发射SAR卫星（这是iQPS的第7颗，未来计划5次更多）。 4、中性火箭中子星Neutron进展：首飞仍目标2026年中（Q1运抵Wallops发射台，资格测试中）。Hungry Hippo可重复使用整流罩已完成资格测试； 拿到太空发展局的合同意味着RKLB正式跻身为最大的国防太空承包商之一；如果26年中中子星发射成功，意味着RKLB成功从小型火箭发射升级到中性火箭发射。 美股太空经济股票，有好几只在链上美股平台@MSX_CN 上都能交易，可以关注起来https://t.co/SwrikLq3oN

中美太空资源争夺白热化，这两天一条新闻值得关注，中国在去年12月正式向国际电信联盟（ITU）提交20.3万颗低轨卫星申报，涵盖14个星座，仅两大核心星座CTC-1与CTC-2就各达9.6万余颗，规模相当于美国星链申报总量的近5倍。 本次申报主体包括无线电创新院、中国移动、垣信卫星等机构。无线电创新院于2025年12月29日提交两个近10万颗卫星的巨型星座申请，并于次日（12月30日）完成河北雄安新区注册登记，成为中国无线电管理技术领域首家新型研发机构。 战略意图： 国际电信联盟（ITU）是太空的“规则制定者”，核心规矩就一条：“先申报、先发射、先占用”。低轨（距离地球300-2000公里）是太空里的“黄金地段”，信号快、延迟低，未来6G通信、军事指挥都离不开它，就像城市里的核心停车位，占一个少一个。 老马的星链动手更早：截至2025年底，在轨卫星快到1万颗，占了全球低轨卫星的2/3，还申报了4.2万颗，把好位置占得差不多了 中国此举旨在抢占低轨卫星频轨资源，应对国际竞争。目前全球低轨资源遵循“先占先得”规则，中国通过大规模申报锁定资源。 当然ITU审批通过后并不是一劳永逸，根据ITU规则，申报单位需在7年内发射首颗卫星，第9年完成10%部署，第12年完成50%部署，第14年完成全部部署。 中国现在大规模申报意味着从卫星制造到火箭发射，全产业链都已准备就绪，这是有明确路线图的国家工程，绝不是虚张声势。 所以说太空资源争夺已是白热化

物理AI的一大步，CES上波士顿动力发布的全新电驱Atlas最大亮点：1、360度旋转关节、56个自由度，机器人头部、躯干和四肢都能360°旋转，完全没有“正面”和“背面”的区别，运动效率高于人类，可以说是对人形概念的一次重构。 2、灵巧手的大进步，看Atlas的演示已经能很灵活地拿起很多细小的零部件，水上的灵活度相比之前和其他机器人大大提高。 3、与谷歌DeepMind达成了战略合作，在把谷歌Gemini Robotics基础模型和新型Atlas机器人进行深度集成和联合研究。这能够让任何形状和尺寸的机器人感知、推理、使用工具并与人类互动，它们可以解决各种复杂的现实世界任务——即使是那些它们未经训练的任务 4、已经开始大规模量产，首批Atlas机器人的量产部署计划已排满，预计将于2026年交付给现代汽车的机器人元工厂应用中心（RMAC）和谷歌DeepMind，该公司计划在2027年初再新增客户。

美股机器人产业地图，川普现在把东大的产业政策学的太到位了。11月末刚签署了AI创世纪计划，现在又开始谋划推动机器人产业的发展。看报道商务部长Lutnick最近一直在与机器人行业的CEO们会面,白宫正在考虑发布一项关于机器人技术的行政令，交通部也正准备宣布成立一个机器人工作组，可能在年底前公布。 为什么要川普推动机器人产业发展： 1）机器人是AI想向物理世界的延伸的抓手，未来AI的载体线上是Agent，线下就是bot； 2）用机器人替代人工是大势所趋，劳动效率和成本考量； 3）机器人技术直接应用于国防，如无人地面/空中/水下车辆和自主系统； 4）更重要是与中国的竞争，事实上当下中国才是全球机器人产业最强者。中国在工业机器人部署上领先全球（23年安装量占世界一半以上，达180万台，是美国的四倍），并计划到2027年主导人形机器人市场。美国担心在机器人硬件和组件上依赖中国（如无人机和电动车市场的先例），因此白宫正制定国家机器人战略，确保“战略独立”。而且机器人产业链上六七成环节都在中国，从这个角度看美国振兴机器人产业任重道远，但又不得不做！ 看到这位https://t.co/iEaXtFPeAg梳理的美股机器人产业地图，搬过来。机器人技术正悄然渗透到经济的各个领域： 1. $PLTR 和 $PATH 是整个车队的交通控制器，而$NVDA 、 $AVGO和$QCOM是让机器人感知和行动的引擎和神经系统。 2. $AVAV 、 $ONDS 、 $RCAT 和 $UMAC 正在构建无人机机队，这些无人机机队将为$LMT 、 $RTX和$GD运行的自主防御网络提供动力。 3. $TSLA 、 $HON 和 $TER 驱动工业机器人，实现装配线和重型制造的自动化。 4. $GOOGL 、 $AMZN 和$MSFT 提供连接每台机器的 AI 数据层，而$ROK和$ZBRA提供保持工厂生产线/仓库运转的控制器、扫描仪和移动机器人。 5. $MBLY 、 $LIDR 、 $LAZR 和$INVZ 提供感知堆栈，使机器人能够看到世界并导航。 6. $ISRG 、 $PRCT 、 $SYK和$MDT带来了手术机器人，正在重塑手术室。 7. $RR 、 $OII 和$FARO将机器人推向水下、现场和面向客户的服务角色。 8. $AMZN 部署了数十万个仓库机器人来移动和拣选货物，而$SYM和$SERV则制造了为履行和最后一公里零售物流提供支持的自主移动机器人。 个人看法，在美股确定性的高应该还是特斯拉，老马正在全力以赴推动机器人业务进展。其他onds，rr也值得关注。大家看好美股机器人产业里那些票，欢迎一起讨论下。 上面聊的美股机器人股票，有好几只 在链上美股平台@MSX_CN 上都能交易，可以关注起来https://t.co/SwrikLq3oN

收藏一下，人形机器人相关股票是未来3-5年重要机会

MARKET UPDATE: CONSUMER 🔸 Autos ($GM, $F, $STLA, $TSLA): Trump plans 25% tariffs on foreign cars/parts starting Thursday. He told NBC he "couldn’t care less" if automakers raise prices. 🔸 Harley-Davidson ( $HOG): Warns EU’s potential 50% retaliatory tariff could push prices to extreme levels. ENERGY, INDUSTRIALS & MATERIALS 🔸 FTC Solar ( $FTCI): Q4 adj. EPS loss (-$0.80) vs. est. (-$0.84); revenue $13.2M vs. est. $11.61M; Q1 rev. outlook ($18M-$20M) vs. consensus $23.47M. 🔸 Honeywell ( $HON): Plans to take Quantinuum public by 2026-2027, market conditions permitting. 🔸 U.S. Steel ( $X): Downgraded to Market Perform at BMO; Steel Dynamics (STLD): Upgraded to Outperform, seen benefiting from Trump's tariffs. FINANCIALS 🔸 Cannae ( $CNNE): Plans to use $460M from Dun & Bradstreet sale for buybacks, dividends, and debt reduction. 🔸 LPL Financial ( $LPLA): Acquiring Commonwealth Financial for ~$2.7B in cash (2,900 advisors, $285B AUM). 🔸 PNC Financial ( $PNC): Upgraded to Buy at HSBC. HEALTHCARE 🔸 RFK Jr.: Doubling HHS layoffs to 20,000, consolidating divisions from 28 to 15, renaming it "Administration for a Healthy America ( $AHA)." 🔸 Waters Corp. ( $WAT): Upgraded to Overweight at KeyBanc ($460 target), citing strength in pharma/biotech manufacturing. TECH, MEDIA & TELECOM 🔸 xAI & X Merger: xAI acquires X in an all-stock deal, valuing xAI at $80B and X at $33B. The merger integrates AI expertise with X’s distribution and data. 🔸 Semiconductors: Renesas, Sumco, and Tokyo Electron among Japan’s biggest losers as Nikkei 225 slumps. Foxconn and TSMC also fell in Taiwan.

MORNING RECAP Tesla ( $TSLA): China-made EV sales dropped 4.3% y/y to 78,856 in November. Month-over-month increase of 15.5% for Model 3 and Model Y deliveries. Kroger ( $KR): Upgraded to Buy from Hold by Jefferies, target raised to $73 from $54. Downgraded by BMO Capital, target unchanged at $60. Live Nation Entertainment ( $LYV): Launched $1B in convertible senior notes due 2030. Axon (AXON): Upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley; target raised to $700 from $500. Crane Company (CR): Agreed to sell engineered materials segment for $227M to KPS Capital Partners, LP. Forecasts Q4 adjusted EPS from continuing operations at $1.10-$1.25. Donaldson (DCI): Q1 adjusted EPS $0.83, slightly above estimate of $0.82; Q1 revenue $900.1M vs. $892.43M expected. Maintains FY25 EPS guidance at $3.56-$3.72; expects revenue growth of 2%-6%. FedEx ( $FDX): Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein; target reduced to $316 from $337. General Motors ( $GM): Non-binding agreement to sell stake in Ultium Cells LLC plant in Lansing to LG Energy Solutions. Honeywell ( $HON): Signed agreement with Bombardier for next-gen aviation tech; updated 2024 outlook. Joby Aviation Inc ( $JOBY): CFO Matthew Field to resign effective December 13, 2024. Rayonier ( $RYN): Authorized $300M share repurchase; announced special dividend of $1.80 per share. United States Steel ( $X): Shares fell after Trump's comments on reviving U.S. Steel and opposing Nippon Steel's acquisition. Aflac ( $AFL): Quarterly dividend increased by 16% to $0.58 per share. CleanSpark Inc. ( $CLSK): FY revenue at $378.9M, below estimates of $397.32M. Adjusted EBITDA at $245.8M, significantly above estimates of $141.44M. Regional Management Corp ( $RM): Announced a $30M stock repurchase program. State Street ( $STT): Upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform by Keefe Bruyette; target price raised to $120. PTC Therapeutics ( $PTCT): Upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform by RBC Capital; target price increased to $63 from $39, citing transformative deal with Novartis. TransMedics ( $TMDX): Narrowed FY24 revenue guidance to $428M-$432M from $425M-$445M. Announced new CFO, Gerardo Hernandez, replacing Stephen Gordon. Vaxart ( $VXRT): Completed enrollment for sentinel cohort in phase 2B study of its COVID-19 oral vaccine candidate. Microchip Technology ( $MCHP): Shares fell after lowering December 2024 revenue guidance to about $1.025B. Announced closure of Tempe wafer fabrication facility (Fab 2). Microsoft ( $MSFT): Facing a £1 billion dispute in the U.K. over cloud software licensing practices. AT&T ( $T): Authorized $10B in share repurchases. Raised FY adjusted EPS guidance to $2.20-$2.25. Maintained free cash flow and capital expenditure forecasts. Credo Technology ( $CRDO): Q2 revenue $72.0M, above estimates; EPS $0.07 vs. $0.05 expected. Forecasts Q3 gross margin between 60.6%-62.6%; revenue guidance $115M-$125M. Bill Holdings ( $BILL): Offering $1.0B in convertible senior notes due 2030. Ingram Micro ( $INGM): To reduce workforce by 850 associates. IonQ ( $IONQ): Launched IonQ Quantum OS and IonQ Hybrid Services suite to enhance quantum computing utility. Seagate Technologies ( $STX): Expects lower production output for fiscal Q3 2025, impacting revenue by up to $200M. Zscaler ( $ZS): Q1 adjusted EPS $0.77, above $0.63 estimate; revenue $627.955M vs. $606.19M expected. Provided Q2 and FY revenue and EPS guidance, both exceeding consensus estimates.

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL SHARES JUMP 9.2% PREMARKET AFTER REPORT ELLIOTT AMASSES $5 BLN-PLUS STAKE IN CO

$HON - ELLIOTT IS SAID TO AMASS A $5 BILLION-PLUS STAKE IN HONEYWELL ELLIOTT IS SAID TO PUSH HONEYWELL TO CONSIDER BREAKING UP

#Downgrades - Oct 10, 2024 $ALTM: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $5.85 (from $4.25) $ALTM: Raymond James Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform $AMT: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $230 (from $245) $AZUL: Seaport Global Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy $BP: Scotiabank Downgrades to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform - PT $36 (from $42) $CG: CFRA Downgrades to Sell from Hold - PT $45 $CRUS: Barclays Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $120 (from $140) $FA: Wolfe Research Downgrades to Peerperform from Outperform $HII: Vertical Research Partners Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $275 $HII: Wolfe Research Downgrades to Peerperform from Outperform $HON: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $235 (from $225) $HUBB: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $454 (from $385) $HXL: Vertical Research Partners Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $65 $LEU: Roth/MKM Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $62 (from $55) $LULU: CFRA Downgrades to Hold from Strong Buy - PT $280 $NTR: UBS Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $51 (from $66) $OGN: CFRA Downgrades to Sell from Hold - PT $16 $PEP: TD Cowen Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $183 (from $190) $PYPL: Bernstein Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $80 (from $75) $SAR: Ladenburg Thalmann Downgrades to Neutral from Buy $SWKS: Barclays Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $87 (from $115)

#Upgrades - Oct 09, 2024 $AFRM: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Equalweight from Underweight - PT $37 (from $20) $HD: Loop Capital Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $460 $HON: CFRA Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $235 $INTR: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $8.50 (from $7.50). $LOW: Loop Capital Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $30 $LPLA: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $285 (from $235) $LUV: Jefferies Upgrades to Hold from Underperform - PT $32 (from $24) $MSCI: Redburn-Atlantic Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $680 $RJF: JMP Securities Upgrades to Market Outperform from Market Perform - PT $146 $SAIA: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Outperform from Peerperform $VLO: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $165 (from $172) $VNET: HSBC Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $5.20

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