Notes
MARKET UPDATE:
CONSUMER
🔸 Autos ($GM, $F, $STLA, $TSLA): Trump plans 25% tariffs on foreign cars/parts starting Thursday. He told NBC he "couldn’t care less" if automakers raise prices.
🔸 Harley-Davidson ( $HOG): Warns EU’s potential 50% retaliatory tariff could push prices to extreme levels.
ENERGY, INDUSTRIALS & MATERIALS
🔸 FTC Solar ( $FTCI): Q4 adj. EPS loss (-$0.80) vs. est. (-$0.84); revenue $13.2M vs. est. $11.61M; Q1 rev. outlook ($18M-$20M) vs. consensus $23.47M.
🔸 Honeywell ( $HON): Plans to take Quantinuum public by 2026-2027, market conditions permitting.
🔸 U.S. Steel ( $X): Downgraded to Market Perform at BMO; Steel Dynamics (STLD): Upgraded to Outperform, seen benefiting from Trump's tariffs.
FINANCIALS
🔸 Cannae ( $CNNE): Plans to use $460M from Dun & Bradstreet sale for buybacks, dividends, and debt reduction.
🔸 LPL Financial ( $LPLA): Acquiring Commonwealth Financial for ~$2.7B in cash (2,900 advisors, $285B AUM).
🔸 PNC Financial ( $PNC): Upgraded to Buy at HSBC.
HEALTHCARE
🔸 RFK Jr.: Doubling HHS layoffs to 20,000, consolidating divisions from 28 to 15, renaming it "Administration for a Healthy America ( $AHA)."
🔸 Waters Corp. ( $WAT): Upgraded to Overweight at KeyBanc ($460 target), citing strength in pharma/biotech manufacturing.
TECH, MEDIA & TELECOM
🔸 xAI & X Merger: xAI acquires X in an all-stock deal, valuing xAI at $80B and X at $33B. The merger integrates AI expertise with X’s distribution and data.
🔸 Semiconductors: Renesas, Sumco, and Tokyo Electron among Japan’s biggest losers as Nikkei 225 slumps. Foxconn and TSMC also fell in Taiwan.
MORNING RECAP
Tesla ( $TSLA): China-made EV sales dropped 4.3% y/y to 78,856 in November.
Month-over-month increase of 15.5% for Model 3 and Model Y deliveries.
Kroger ( $KR): Upgraded to Buy from Hold by Jefferies, target raised to $73 from $54.
Downgraded by BMO Capital, target unchanged at $60.
Live Nation Entertainment ( $LYV): Launched $1B in convertible senior notes due 2030.
Axon (AXON): Upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley; target raised to $700 from $500.
Crane Company (CR): Agreed to sell engineered materials segment for $227M to KPS Capital Partners, LP. Forecasts Q4 adjusted EPS from continuing operations at $1.10-$1.25.
Donaldson (DCI):
Q1 adjusted EPS $0.83, slightly above estimate of $0.82; Q1 revenue $900.1M vs. $892.43M expected.
Maintains FY25 EPS guidance at $3.56-$3.72; expects revenue growth of 2%-6%.
FedEx ( $FDX): Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein; target reduced to $316 from $337.
General Motors ( $GM): Non-binding agreement to sell stake in Ultium Cells LLC plant in Lansing to LG Energy Solutions.
Honeywell ( $HON): Signed agreement with Bombardier for next-gen aviation tech; updated 2024 outlook.
Joby Aviation Inc ( $JOBY): CFO Matthew Field to resign effective December 13, 2024.
Rayonier ( $RYN): Authorized $300M share repurchase; announced special dividend of $1.80 per share.
United States Steel ( $X): Shares fell after Trump's comments on reviving U.S. Steel and opposing Nippon Steel's acquisition.
Aflac ( $AFL): Quarterly dividend increased by 16% to $0.58 per share.
CleanSpark Inc. ( $CLSK): FY revenue at $378.9M, below estimates of $397.32M. Adjusted EBITDA at $245.8M, significantly above estimates of $141.44M.
Regional Management Corp ( $RM): Announced a $30M stock repurchase program.
State Street ( $STT): Upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform by Keefe Bruyette; target price raised to $120.
PTC Therapeutics ( $PTCT): Upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform by RBC Capital; target price increased to $63 from $39, citing transformative deal with Novartis.
TransMedics ( $TMDX): Narrowed FY24 revenue guidance to $428M-$432M from $425M-$445M. Announced new CFO, Gerardo Hernandez, replacing Stephen Gordon.
Vaxart ( $VXRT): Completed enrollment for sentinel cohort in phase 2B study of its COVID-19 oral vaccine candidate.
Microchip Technology ( $MCHP): Shares fell after lowering December 2024 revenue guidance to about $1.025B. Announced closure of Tempe wafer fabrication facility (Fab 2).
Microsoft ( $MSFT): Facing a £1 billion dispute in the U.K. over cloud software licensing practices.
AT&T ( $T): Authorized $10B in share repurchases.
Raised FY adjusted EPS guidance to $2.20-$2.25.
Maintained free cash flow and capital expenditure forecasts.
Credo Technology ( $CRDO): Q2 revenue $72.0M, above estimates; EPS $0.07 vs. $0.05 expected.
Forecasts Q3 gross margin between 60.6%-62.6%; revenue guidance $115M-$125M.
Bill Holdings ( $BILL): Offering $1.0B in convertible senior notes due 2030.
Ingram Micro ( $INGM): To reduce workforce by 850 associates.
IonQ ( $IONQ): Launched IonQ Quantum OS and IonQ Hybrid Services suite to enhance quantum computing utility.
Seagate Technologies ( $STX): Expects lower production output for fiscal Q3 2025, impacting revenue by up to $200M.
Zscaler ( $ZS): Q1 adjusted EPS $0.77, above $0.63 estimate; revenue $627.955M vs. $606.19M expected.
Provided Q2 and FY revenue and EPS guidance, both exceeding consensus estimates.
#Downgrades - Oct 10, 2024
$ALTM: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $5.85 (from $4.25)
$ALTM: Raymond James Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform
$AMT: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $230 (from $245)
$AZUL: Seaport Global Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
$BP: Scotiabank Downgrades to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform - PT $36 (from $42)
$CG: CFRA Downgrades to Sell from Hold - PT $45
$CRUS: Barclays Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $120 (from $140)
$FA: Wolfe Research Downgrades to Peerperform from Outperform
$HII: Vertical Research Partners Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $275
$HII: Wolfe Research Downgrades to Peerperform from Outperform
$HON: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $235 (from $225)
$HUBB: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $454 (from $385)
$HXL: Vertical Research Partners Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $65
$LEU: Roth/MKM Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $62 (from $55)
$LULU: CFRA Downgrades to Hold from Strong Buy - PT $280
$NTR: UBS Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $51 (from $66)
$OGN: CFRA Downgrades to Sell from Hold - PT $16
$PEP: TD Cowen Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $183 (from $190)
$PYPL: Bernstein Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $80 (from $75)
$SAR: Ladenburg Thalmann Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
$SWKS: Barclays Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $87 (from $115)
#Upgrades - Oct 09, 2024
$AFRM: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Equalweight from Underweight - PT $37 (from $20)
$HD: Loop Capital Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $460
$HON: CFRA Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $235
$INTR: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $8.50 (from $7.50).
$LOW: Loop Capital Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $30
$LPLA: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $285 (from $235)
$LUV: Jefferies Upgrades to Hold from Underperform - PT $32 (from $24)
$MSCI: Redburn-Atlantic Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $680
$RJF: JMP Securities Upgrades to Market Outperform from Market Perform - PT $146
$SAIA: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Outperform from Peerperform
$VLO: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $165 (from $172)
$VNET: HSBC Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $5.20
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