Notes
PREMKT
🔸 $XPEV: -11.68%
🔸 $MSTR: -9.99%
🔸 $BABA: -7.52%
🔸 $TSLA: -7.15%
🔸 $NIO: -6.79%
🔸 $NVDA: -6.35%
🔸 $AMD: -4.40%
🔸 $APPL: -4.23%
🔸 $INTC: -3.88%
🔸 $META: -3.71%
🔸 $AMZN: -3.12%
🔸 $GOOGL: -2.69%
🔸 $BA: -2.42%
🔸 $NFLX: -2.36%
🔸 $MSFT: -2.07%
PREMKT
🔸 $XPEV: -14.20%
🔸 $BABA: -11.45%
🔸 $MSTR: -10.73%
🔸 $NIO: -9.25%
🔸 $TSLA: -8.59%
🔸 $NVDA: -7.05%
🔸 $AMD: -6.02%
🔸 $META: -5.19%
🔸 $INTC: -4.33%
🔸 $AMZN: -4.27%
🔸 $BA: -4.20%
🔸 $NFLX: -3.89%
🔸 $APPL: -3.80%
🔸 $GOOGL: -3.70%
🔸 $MSFT: -3.62%
Premkt
$VIX: 38
$BABA: -8.29%
$JD: -7.77%
$XPEV: -7.49%
$AMZN: -5.40%
$AMD: -5.29%
$INTC: -5.22%
$TSLA: -5.13%
$AAPL: -4.73%
$NIO: -4.55%
$NKE: -4.41%
$MSFT: -4.38%
$META: -4.25%
$RIVN: -3.82%
$NVDA: -3.80%
$GOOGL: -3.07%
$AMC: -2.27%
MARKET UPDATES:
CONSUMER:
🔸 $DG upgraded to Overweight (BofA).
🔸 Macau casinos ($WYNN, $LVS, $MLCO, $MGM): Gaming revenue +0.8% YoY.
🔸 $LI: March deliveries 36,674 (+26.5% YoY).
🔸 $NIO: March deliveries 15,039 (+14% MoM).
🔸 $PVH: Q4 EPS $3.27 (beat), revenue -4.8% YoY.
🔸 $TSLA: Denmark sales -65.6% YoY.
🔸 $ULTA: Upgraded to Buy, price target raised to $423.
ENERGY & INDUSTRIALS:
🔸 $AAL, $DAL, $LUV: Downgraded (Jefferies).
🔸 Oil: Brent stabilizes after Trump’s Russia comments.
🔸 $CVX: Sells East Texas gas assets ($1.2B+ value).
🔸 $EE: 7M-share secondary offering priced at $26.50.
FINANCIALS:
🔸 $LPLA: 4.7M-share secondary offering at $320.
🔸 $V: $375M escrow deposit, reducing Class B shares.
🔸 $WRB: Downgraded (BofA).
HEALTHCARE:
🔸 $JNJ: $10B talc settlement rejected by U.S. judge.
🔸 Drugmakers: Lobby Trump to phase in pharma tariffs.
TECH & MEDIA:
🔸 $LYV, $SEAT: Fall after Trump’s executive order on ticket pricing.
🔸 $PRGS: Q1 EPS $1.31 (beat), raises full-year guidance.
🔸 $SPIR: Q4 EPS loss ($2.21), weak Q1 outlook.
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
AUTOS:
🔸 GM & Ford drop as Trump imposes 25% import tax on foreign cars (effective April 3); European & Asian automakers also down.
🔸 S&P Changes: Cava ( $CAVA) replaces Altair ( $ALTR) in S&P MidCap 400 (March 31) after Siemens acquires Altair.
🔸 Crypto: GameStop ( $GME) plans $1.3B convertible notes offering to buy Bitcoin.
EARNINGS:
🔸 MillerKnoll ( $MLKN): Q3 EPS $0.44 in line, revenue $876.2M (miss); Q4 guide below estimates.
🔸 Nio ( $NIO): Raises $450M via share placement for EV development.
🔸 Petco ( $WOOF): Q4 EBITDA beats, but weak Q1 & FY guidance.
🔸 Steelcase ( $SCS): Q4 EPS beats; Q1 revenue & EPS guidance above estimates.
INDUSTRIALS & MATERIALS:
🔸 Chemours ( $CC) upgraded at Mizuho;
🔸 Liberty Energy ( $LBRT) upgraded at Morgan Stanley.
🔸 HB Fuller ( $FUL) beats Q1 EPS, guides FY revenue lower.
FINANCIALS:
🔸 Jefferies ( $JEF) Q4 EPS misses; cites challenging capital markets.
HEALTHCARE:
🔸 Medicaid overpaid insurers ( $CI, $HUM, $UNH, $ELV), per WSJ.
🔸 Nkarta ( $NKTX): Q4 EPS beats, cash runway to 2029.
🔸 Soleno ( $SLNO): FDA approves Vykat XR for genetic disorder.
🔸 Zentalis ( $ZNTL): Files mixed shelf offering up to $250M.
TECH & MEDIA:
🔸 $AMD downgraded at Jefferies (AI concerns, competition).
🔸 S&P Changes: Angi ( $ANGI) replaces ODP in SmallCap 600.
🔸 3D Systems ( $DDD): Q4 EPS misses, weak FY guidance.
🔸 Concentrix ( $CNXC): Q1 EPS & revenue beat, reiterates FY outlook.
🔸 OpenAI nears $40B funding at $300B valuation (Bloomberg).
🔸 Verint ( $VRNT): Q4 EPS & revenue miss, weak FY guidance.
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY:
CONSUMER:
🔸 Colgate ( $CL): New $5B buyback, dividend to $0.52.
🔸 $NCLH: Upgraded to Equal Weight (Morgan Stanley).
🔸 Lennar ( $LEN): Q1 EPS $2.14 (est. $1.73), rev $7.63B (est. $7.49B); Q2 orders 22.5k-23.5k, deliveries 19.5k-20.5k.
🔸 Nike ( $NKE): Q3 EPS $0.54 (est. $0.28), rev $11.3B (est. $11.03B); guides Q4 rev down mid-teens.
🔸 $NIO: Q4 rev $2.7B (est. $2.79B), EV deliveries up 45%; Q1 guide: 41k-43k vehicles, rev $1.69B-$1.76B (est. $2.48B).
🔸 Torrid ( $CURV): Q4 sales -6.1% y/y; guides Q1 sales $264M-$274M (est. $279M), EBITDA below estimates.
🔸 Target ( $TGT): Files $1B note offering due 2035.
Energy/Industrials/Materials:
🔸 FedEx ( $FDX): Q3 EPS $4.51 (miss), rev $22.2B (beat); cuts FY25 guidance.
🔸 Nucor ( $NUE): Q1 EPS guide $0.50-$0.60 (est. $1.09); sees lower steel product prices.
🔸 Planet Labs ( $PL): Q4 loss -$0.08 (est. -$0.02), rev $61.6M; Q1 guide below est.
🔸 U.S. Steel ( $X): Q1 EBITDA $125M (in line), EPS loss guided larger than est.
🔸 BP ( $BP): Elliott pushes for cost cuts, possible board changes (Reuters).
Healthcare:
🔸 Assembly Bio ( $ASMB): Files $250M mixed shelf.
🔸 Editas ( $EDIT): CFO stepping down.
🔸 Foghorn ( $FHTX): Files $100M shelf.
🔸 J&J ( $JNJ): Plans $55B investment in U.S. manufacturing/research.
🔸 Maravai ( $MRVI): Guides Q1 rev $43M-$45M (est. $63M).
🔸 Vor Bio ( $VOR): Files $350M shelf.
Tech/Media/Telecom:
🔸 Micron ( $MU): Q2 EPS $1.56 (beat), rev $8.05B; Q3 guide above est.
🔸 Luminar ( $LAZR): Sees slower Q1, FY25 rev growth 10%-20%.
🔸 Quantum ( $QUBT): Q4 loss -$0.47 (miss), rev $62k; chip foundry launch in 2025.
🔸 Super Micro ( $SMCI): Upgraded to Neutral (JPM), price target raised to $45.
MORNING BID
🔸 Apple ( $AAPL) lost an appeal in Germany, facing tighter regulations after a long market debate.
🔸 Baidu ( $BIDU) rises on reports Tesla (TSLA) will launch Full Self-Driving (FSD) in China this year, partnering with Baidu. Free FSD trials run March 17–April 16.
🔸 Getty Images ( $GETY) Q4 EPS: $0.06 (est. $0.04); adj. EBITDA: $80.6M (est. $74M); FY25 revenue guidance: $918–955M (est. $955M).
🔸 Alphabet ( $GOOGL) is in advanced talks to buy cybersecurity firm Wiz for ~$30B, per WSJ; a deal could finalize soon.
🔸 Lucid ( $LCID) upgraded to equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
🔸 Masterbrand ( $MBC) adds $50M share buyback.
🔸 Nio ( $NIO) partners with CATL for battery swap network, using CATL’s Choco-Swap tech in Firefly models.
🔸 Toronto ends Tesla ( $TSLA) taxi/ride-share incentives over U.S. trade tensions.
🔸 Audi ( $VWAGY) may raise prices to offset U.S. tariffs.
🔸 Xiaomi ( $XIACY) raises 2025 EV target to 350,000 units; Q4 revenue up 48% to 109B yuan, beating estimates.
I hope everybody had a nice week. Great to see the reactions we did as a lot of impulse signals triggered where we expected them to(when the least were expecting it once again)💪Lots to unpack and dive into this weekend
Subscriber Agenda
Video: Why did miners fade into the close?
Charts:
New Impulse- #BTC LTF potential paths, $MARA, $RIOT, $CLSK, $IREN, $WULF, $CIFR, $SMLR, $XRP, $LINK, $LTC, $HOOD, $QQQ, $IWM, $SPY, $MSTR, $ETH, $DOGE
Ongoing Corrective- $TSLA, $PLTR, $SOFI, $MBLY, $MU, $PYPL, $CELH, $UPST(some of these names made big moves this week but I'm not sold corrections are over)
Correction Nearing Completion?- $CGC, $SQ, $NIO, $JD, $AMC, $LMND
Subscriber Requests- $XLM, $RUNE
DAILY RECAP
**BYD Co. ( $BYDDF)** reported a 67.8% y/y increase in November vehicle sales, reaching 506,804 units compared to 301,903 last year. Year-to-date sales hit 3.76M units, up from 2.68M last year.
**Gap ( $GAP)** received an upgrade to overweight from neutral by JPMorgan after a CEO and CFO meeting.
**Li Auto Inc. ( $LI)** delivered 48,740 vehicles in November 2024, a y/y increase of 18.8%, with a 2024 total of 441,995 and cumulative deliveries at 1,075,359.
**NIO Inc. ( $NIO)** saw a 28.9% y/y rise in November deliveries to 20,575 vehicles, split between its NIO and ONVO brands.
**Stellantis ( $STLA)** announced CEO Carlos Tavares' resignation, effective immediately, with a new CEO search set to conclude in 2025's first half.
**XPeng Inc. ( $XPEV)** delivered 30,895 Smart EVs in November, up 54% y/y and 29% m/m, with strong sales of the MONA M03 and P7+.
**Core Scientific Inc. ( $CORZ)** plans to issue $500M in convertible senior notes maturing in 2031.
**IREN Limited ( $IREN)** boosted its self-mining capacity by 33% to 28 EH/s with new substation energization.
**LendingClub ( $LC)** was downgraded to neutral by JPMorgan due to fintech sector concerns.
**Mara Holdings ( $MARA)** is set to offer $700M in zero-coupon convertible senior notes privately.
**Toast ( $TOST)** received a downgrade to Neutral from Goldman Sachs, citing high valuation and visibility issues.
**Upstart Holdings ( $UPST)** was downgraded to underweight by JP Morgan.
**Bausch + Lomb ( $BLCO)** was downgraded to Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley.
**Nevro ( $NVRO)** saw a downgrade to Underweight by Morgan Stanley.
**Tandem Diabetes ( $TNDM)** got an upgrade to Overweight from Morgan Stanley.
**Cloudflare ( $NET)** was upgraded to overweight by Morgan Stanley, optimistic about future growth.
**SentinelOne ( $S)** was downgraded to equal weight by Morgan Stanley, due to cybersecurity sector concerns.
**U.S. to implement new export restrictions on Monday targeting China's semiconductor sector**, affecting companies like Naura Technology Group, potentially impacting shares of $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC.
#Downgrades - Nov 25, 2024
• $ABX: CIBC Downgrades to Neutral from Outperformer
• $AJG: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $313
• $CYH: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $2.50 (from $5)
• $DESP: TD Cowen Downgrades to Sell from Buy - PT $14 (from $12)
• $EXFY: JMP Securities Downgrades to Market Perform from Market Outperform
• $EXP: Loop Capital Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $315
• $FIVE: Telsey Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $95 (from $102)
• $HCA: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $320 (from $400)
• $HCA: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $320 (from $400)
• $MTB: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $230 (from $220)
• $MYNZ: H.C. Wainwright Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $NIO: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $3.90 (from $4.80)
• $NMRK: Wolfe Research Downgrades to Peerperform from Outperform
• $RRR: Mizuho Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $44 (from $57)
• $SDHC: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $36 (from $41)
• $SEM: Benchmark Downgrades to Hold from Buy
• $SQ: BMO Capital Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $100 (from $94)
• $THC: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $150 (from $205)
Earnings Week Ahead
Tuesday 19th, 2024
• Ticker: $XPENG
• Company: XPeng Inc
• Market Cap: 12.9 billion USD
• EST Time: 05:30 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: -0.24 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 1.37 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: -0.77 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 5.66 billion USD
• Ticker: $LOW
• Company: Lowe's Companies Inc
• Market Cap: 153.4 billion USD
• EST Time: 06:00 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 2.82 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 19.94 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 11.82 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 82.99 billion USD
• Ticker: $J
• Company: Jacobs Engineering Group Inc
• Market Cap: 17.5 billion USD
• EST Time: 06:40 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 1.54 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 2.37 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 6.98 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 8.24 billion USD
• Ticker: $MDT
• Company: Medtronic PLC
• Market Cap: 110.3 billion USD
• EST Time: 06:45 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 1.25 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 8.27 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 5.45 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 33.62 billion USD
• Ticker: $WMT
• Company: Walmart Inc
• Market Cap: 679 billion USD
• EST Time: 07:00 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 0.53 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 167.72 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 2.45 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 678.25 billion USD
• Ticker: $KEYS
• Company: Keysight Technologies Inc
• Market Cap: 26.7 billion USD
• EST Time: 16:05 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 1.57 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 1.20 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 6.18 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 4.95 billion USD
Wednesday 20th, 2024
• Ticker: $NIO
• Company: Nio Inc
• Market Cap: 9.2 billion USD
• EST Time: 05:30 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: -0.30 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 2.69 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: -1.17 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 10.2 billion USD
• Ticker: $TGT
• Company: Target Corp
• Market Cap: 70.7 billion USD
• EST Time: 06:30 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 2.30 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 25.9 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 9.55 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 106.71 billion USD
• Ticker: $TJX
• Company: TJX Companies Inc
• Market Cap: 135.2 billion USD
• EST Time: 07:30 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 1.09 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 13.95 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 4.17 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 56.2 billion USD
• Ticker: $PANW
• Company: Palo Alto Networks Inc
• Market Cap: 129.1 billion USD
• EST Time: 16:05 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 1.48 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 2.12 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 6.27 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 9.13 billion USD
• Ticker: $NVDA
• Company: NVIDIA Corp
• Market Cap: 360.9 billion USD
• EST Time: 16:20 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 0.75 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 33.12 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 2.86 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 126.9 billion USD
• Ticker: $SQM
• Company: Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA
• Market Cap: 10.6 billion USD
• EST Time: 20:15 EST (previous day)
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 0.66 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 1.09 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: -0.56 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 4.69 billion USD
Wednesday 21th, 2024
• Ticker: $BIDU
• Company: Baidu Inc
• Market Cap: 29.5 billion USD
• EST Time: 05:00 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 2.43 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 4.6 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 10.94 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 18.6 billion USD
• Ticker: $DE
• Company: Deere & Co
• Market Cap: 108 billion USD
• EST Time: 06:30 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 3.89 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 9.3 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 24.89 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 45.3 billion USD
• Ticker: $WMG
• Company: Warner Music Group Corp
• Market Cap: 17.3 billion USD
• EST Time: 07:30 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 0.28 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 1.59 billion USD
• Ticker: $GAP
• Company: Gap Inc
• Market Cap: 8.3 billion USD
• Reporting Time: After Market Close (AMC)
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 0.58 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 3.81 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 1.87 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 14.96 billion USD
• Ticker: $ROST
• Company: Ross Stores Inc
• Market Cap: 47.2 billion USD
• EST Time: 16:00 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 1.40 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 5.17 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 6.13 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 21.36 billion USD
• Ticker: $NTAP
• Company: NetApp Inc
• Market Cap: 24.2 billion USD
• EST Time: 16:00 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 1.78 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 1.64 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 7.10 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 6.6 billion USD
• Ticker: $INTU
• Company: Intuit Inc
• Market Cap: 196.4 billion USD
• EST Time: 16:00 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 2.35 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 3.14 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 19.34 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 18.27 billion USD
• Ticker: $CPRT
• Company: Copart Inc
• Market Cap: 55.2 billion USD
• EST Time: 16:30 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 0.37 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 1.09 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 1.55 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 4.56 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 1.08 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 6.4 billion USD

#Upgrades - Sep 06, 2024
$AMRX: JPMorgan Upgrades to Neutral from Underweight - PT $9
$CARR: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Peerperform from Underperform
$COIN: Barclays Upgrades to Equalweight from Underweight - PT $169 (from $206)
$ETN: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Peerperform from Underperform
$FTV: Mizuho Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $90 (from $80)
$HOOD: Barclays Upgrades to Equalweight from Underweight - PT $20 (from $18)
$HUBB: Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $441 (from $431)
$ITCI: Piper Sandler Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $92 (from $68)
$NIO: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $8 (from $5.30)
$OMAB: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $77 (from $82)
$X: Exane BNP Paribas Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral
依靠高精度地图和人为硬编码的规则做出来的自动驾驶 L2 解决方案,面临类似所有做题家都无法避免的结局:
1. 遇到新情况,没有高精度地图指引或者路上没有清晰标志的时候就可能卡壳。
2. 因为和其它做题家是同样的套路,最后大家竞相杀价,都不赚钱。