我们在2月15日，提示了清仓美股，注意风险。当前需要耐心等待巴菲特的出手，他往往是最精准的猎手，如同08年！ 目前从各项经济指标来看，美国衰退大概率避免不了，贸易战不会短时间停止，就像打德州扑克一样，沉没成本太大，互相已经损失了上万亿的经济重创，只能一直加注下去，最后赢者通吃。今天高盛最新的报告预测，对美元十分悲观，2025年GDP预期增长为0，通胀将会大幅上升，降息可能性渺茫。 团队做了两张图表，供大家参考，一张是08年金融危机的情况，雷曼兄弟破产，仅仅是行情正式下跌的开始，如同我们现在一样，而巴菲特在08年的两次出手，尤其是救GE，可谓抄底十分精准，很快我们将会收到Q1 伯克希尔的财报，便能知晓巴菲特是否出手。 一张图是各种衰退情况下的模拟预测走势，并于历史上重大金融事件的重叠情况，大概率我们现在还在下跌的初期阶段，不要过早的把子弹打完，一定要保留好现金流和足够的子弹。🧐

ETFs were Liquidity Release Valves as we have seen in volatility spikes in the past. They're still passing stress tests. This is the titles of my note from Tuesday.

ETF flows a little lighter overall, only +$3b net as a team altho still +$25b for past 5 days. Check out $VOO, again with a monster haul, $2.3b, now nearly $10b for week and $44b on year. Unreal. Also $TQQQ with ANOTHER billion, as degens keep degenning..

Speaking of BlackRock, congrats to $IVV which just passed $SPY to become the second largest ETF after $VOO. Get used to this order, $VOO, $IVV, $SPY. It will be this way for a LONG time imo. h/t @etfcom

巴菲特牛逼，早就提示了风险🧐 巴菲特用一个极小的仓位变化，告诉了一些善于观察的聪明投资者，他担忧的地方！⚠️ 巴菲特是一位慈祥可爱的小老头，他的金融口碑能如此优秀，跟他的品格息息相关！🫡

Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF, $VOO, has overtaken State Street's SPDR S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, to become the world's largest ETF by assets under management, with $VOO now holding $632 billion compared to $SPY's $630 billion

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) has finally supplanted SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as world’s largest ETF… Entirely possible iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) catches SPY this year as well. Fun fact: these three ETFs alone account for *17%* of ETF industry assets (out of 4,000+ ETFs).

巴菲特的公司伯克希尔，清仓了 $SPY 和 $VOO 持仓！这是标普500指数 ETF！ 看来巴菲特也觉得美股太疯狂了！目前巴菲特主要持仓为现金奶牛股！这跟中国银行股，中国神华，长江电力逻辑一致！其实本质都是抄作业，美国版和中国版！😂

BREAKING: Warren Buffet updated his portfolio. As soon as his filing comes in, we update his full positions on Unusual Whales. Get it live and first! He bought $OXY $SIRI $BRSN $DPX, sold out of $VOO, $SPY, and $ULTA completely

Equities pulled in a massive $700B over the last year, with core funds like $VOO and $IVV seeing significant inflows. @Vetta_Fi's @kirstenchang16 explains why plain vanilla ETFs are in high demand—and the record-setting momentum driving them. Plus, @CambriaFunds' @MebFaber dives

Yo @michaelbatnick & @awealthofcs. On your Animal spirits pod this week you asked where the money was coming from for $VOO's record. Obviously its nuanced but a lot of it is definitely just coming from mutual funds. Even Vanguard's own MFs (Bar charts are semi-annual flow data)

HISTORIC: $VOO has broken the all-time annual inflow record for an ETF w/ $50.9b and IT'S STILL JULY. Unreal. Now of course, it could see outflows and un-break record but this Vanguard we talking about = 99% chance it hoovers up more cash Pac-Man style. Legit shot at $100b IMO.