Notes
橙子晚间解读6.5
ADP就业远低预期，川普喊话降息！大漂亮法案引川马撕破脸，币市迎利好：摩根大通加杠杆ETF，Circle IPO爆火！币安小币种计划启动，$INIT $ICP $FIL等天王山寨获扶持，市场何去何从？ #加密 #比特币 #山寨币”
先说宏观，昨晚老美公布了几个数据，第一是5月ADP就业数据，结果显示就业人数仅新增3.7w人，比预期的11w人少了很多，这个直接激发的川普的被动，当场喊话鲍威尔让他立刻降息，说人家欧洲今年已经降息9次了，你真是太磨叽了；
第二个宏观数据是5月ISM服务业PMI近一年来首次萎缩，需求大跌，这表明美国可能会经历一段非常缓慢的增长和高通胀时期，算是小利空数据；第三个是美联储褐皮书显示经济有所下降，关税正在对成本的价格构成上行压力。整体看这几个数据对美联储降息节奏的影响都不大，adp低于预期这种事儿经常发生，关键还得看非农就业数据，至于川子的喊话，估计鲍威尔都自动屏蔽了，不影响节奏，cme给的预测数据依然是9月降息，年底前降息2-3次。
然后说川普和马斯克因为大漂亮法案彻底撕破脸的事儿，首先说这个法案对币市来说是利好的，因为加密是非常吃市场放水量的，几乎可以认为只要政府放水，加密就必会上涨，过去几年美国政府的巨量支出和利息就是加密行业上涨的助推器，所以说这个大漂亮法案以及川普昨晚提到的要取消债务上限，实际上都是在放水，可能川普在上台前跟马斯克的想法是一致的，支持doge精简政府开支，但是上台后发现现实和理想是相反的，政府如果大力支出，中期选举就没人支持，据说川普需要大漂亮法案所带来的资金来笼络议员，之前川普已经筹集6亿准备用在中期选举上，计划筹集10亿，没有这笔钱支持川普的议员就无法连任，川普的政策就很难执行，说到底就是川普现在更需要现实的大漂亮法案而不是理想主义的doge，所以川马也就撕破脸了，不过马斯克连发25条推文抨击想必川普都没想到，这个可能是因为川普撤销了马斯克提名的nasa局长所致，估计很快斯克就要辞去川普顾问职位了，和戊戌变法一样，马斯克变法也就百十来天就完蛋了。
昨晚市场还有一些好消息，首先是摩根大通计划允许客户使用比特币ETF作为贷款抵押品，这相当于合规的给ETF加杠杆了，加密美股套娃模式开启；然后是Circle的首次公开募股超额认购超过 25 倍，股票在纽约证券交易所以每股 31 美元完成 IPO，超出原预期定价区间（24-26 美元），筹资 11 亿美元，这个火爆程度在IPO市场是不常见的，说明市场对未来稳定币市场的发展及其看好，genius法案基本上板上钉钉了，这也让稳定币板块成为今年最热的板块，$ena $mkr $aave $crv $fxs 等等都值得关注；
昨天香港财库局将发表第二份发展虚拟资产政策宣言，这个宣言主要是针对虚拟资产衍生品交易的，未来可能会看到合约交易在香港合规化；另外俄罗斯莫斯科交易所推出比特币期货交易；美国财政部宣布启动创纪录的 100 亿美元美债回购操作，被市场视为精简版 QE；美国M2货币供应量已达21.86万亿美元，创历史新高；Robinhood有望本周五被纳入标普500指数。
最后说市场，昨晚大饼和以太坊的ETF都保持了资金流入状态，整体上机构对加密的兴趣还在，虽然大盘走势一般般，我觉得这个单纯是被川普吓的，这货昨天说和中国谈判不顺利，然后欧盟、加拿大这边也准备反制，所以不排除90天缓冲期后，这哥几个都没谈妥，然后关税回到4月2号水平，那么市场就炸了，这也是现在大资金不轻易拉盘的原因；
不过ETH最近还是挺强的，V神昨天下午居然加仓ETH了，真是活久见，以太坊基金会昨晚还公布新的财政政策，计划五年内将运营支出降至5%长期基准，看起来EF要终结每月卖100eth的节奏了，这对币价绝对是利好；
整体上今天山寨表现都比较差，因为大盘不稳，山寨资金流动性是有问题的，就连币安新币板块，最近几个上的现货很多单日交易量都低于500w，这在前几周是不可能发生的，现在币安现货交易量还不如alpha，另外币安昨晚又出现了几个断头铡走势的项目，比如 $dego 直接腰斩，$dexe 走势也差不多，这几个项目应该都出自同一操盘手，包括之前的 $om $act $ip $wct ，应该都是利用合约开多控盘，市场流动性起来后，直接现货砸盘，强行退出套现，所以最近走势和市场反着来的，且流动性、市值都比较弱的项目要小心了；
另外昨天币安还推出了小币种流动性提升计划，首批项目有 $init $icp $a $hyper $parti $kernel $cfx $w $kmno $iotx $ondo $ton $fil $wct $baby $sxt $syrup $sto ，仔细观察你会发现这些都不是所谓的小市值山寨，基本都是天王项目，只不过流动性不足而已，这也算币安变相扶持了，算是个不错的板块， 后续可以关注。
🚀 $A(Prev. $EOS) Airdrop+ Still Ongoing!
Deposit or trade $A on MEXC to share a 30,000 $USDT reward pool!
👥 Up to 200 $USDT Referral Bonus: No extra registration needed, just share your referral link & let them trade.
🎁 10 $USDT per qualified referral. First come, first served!
👇 Join now:
https://t.co/MUpNHUgWa4
#MEXCxA
$A (Vaulta) CFDs are now available in the App 🙌
📈 Go long or short with up to 20x leverage on CFDs, and potentially profit if your prediction is right
Start trading 👇
@Vaulta_
🪂 Maximize your $A Airdrop with @Vaulta_ and #MEXC
🎉 Celebrate the $EOS → $A swap and grab your share of the prize pool:
👉 Deposit to share 10,000 $USDT
👉 Trade Spot/Futures to share 15,000 $USDT
👉 Invite friends to share $5,000 $USDT
⬇️ Trade $A now and win big
#MEXCxA
#MEXC has launched a massive trading event to celebrate the $EOS → $A rebrand @Vaulta_. But oops, I forgot how big the prize pool is
🥹 Can you remind me?
⬇️ Drop your answer in the comments. Also include your MEXC UID and tag #MEXC
🎁 10 lucky winners who answer correctly will share a $100 prize pool.
⏰ Now ～ June 8
🙏 Could you help me out?
⭐️ Hint:
https://t.co/dp1chXvI7w
#MEXCxA
$A 现在愿景转型成半去中心化的web3银行（金融）底层基础设施。
受限于EOS时期造成的声誉困扰。需要通过业务层面扎扎实实的增长来自证，而非仅仅是PR（嘴炮）。
若自证成功，$A 取得 10X+ 的价格增长似乎是个比较保守的概念。
最近 $A 和复星财富、渣打银行达成了战略合作，复星财富和渣打银行都有着明显的港资（或者说受中资影响）背景。巧合的是，EOS当年也是明确的中资做局，浓浓的中国血统。看起来，$A 有希望扮演中资（类官方）在加密领域重拾话语权的工具人。
关键还是观察它的业务数据增长情况。
我一直在等三浪！@Vaulta_
(利益披露：本人持有 $A ，以上言论不能作为你的投资依据）
Trending this week on #OKX:
❇️ Listed: $HUMA $SOPH $A $KAMINO Spot
❇️ Released: Our 31st PoR Report
❇️ Launched: Babylon Bitcoin Staking
❇️ Published: The Future of Blockchain Applications report w/ @Blockworks_
🚨 Trade $A(prev. $EOS) on #MEXC Futures to Win Big!
🎯 Be among the first 50 users to reach $300,000+ in $A Futures volume
💰 Share a 10,000 $USDT bonus pool, up to $1,900 bonus/user based on your volume
⬇️ Join the $A event now:
https://t.co/MUpNHUgWa4
#MEXC #MEXCxA @Vaulta_
🎉 The EOS (EOS) Token Swap and Rebranding to Vaulta (A) has been completed for users
✅ $EOS has been reissued as $A to holders in a 1:1 ratio
✅ Trade, deposit and withdraw $A in the App and Exchange
@Vaulta_
Vaulta ($A) is listed on the App 🔔
Purchase $A easily with USD, EUR, and 20+ fiat currencies.
Download the App to trade #A now!
👉
For more details 👉
@Vaulta_
🚨 Trade $A(prev. $EOS) on #MEXC Spot to Win Big!
🎯 All Users who trade $A with ≥ $1,000 volume
🎁 5,000 $USDT prize pool, rewards based on your volume (max 500 USDT/user)
⬇️ Start trading $A now:
#MEXC #MEXCxA @Vaulta_
Join $CETUS, $SOPH, $A Futures Contest!🚀
Trade & Share $20,000 HTX
Claim $3 in HTX
Ends June 4th
Go:
@CetusProtocol @sophon
📣 EOS → A Slogan Challenge!
With $EOS swapping to @Vaulta_ / $A, it’s time to get creative! Can you come up with the perfect slogan to mark this big change?
How to Join:
1️⃣ Comment your best “EOS to A” slogan
2️⃣ Include your MEXC UID and tag #MEXC
3️⃣ Follow @MEXC_Official and @Vaulta_
🏆 Top 5 entries will win $20 prizes each
⏳ Now ～ June 5
Let your creativity shine, and help shape the future of $A!
#MEXCxA
🪂 Maximize your $A Airdrop with @Vaulta_ and #MEXC
🎉 Celebrate the $EOS → $A swap and grab your share of the prize pool:
👉 Deposit to share 10,000 $USDT
👉 Trade Spot/Futures to share 15,000 $USDT
👉 Invite friends to share $5,000 $USDT
⬇️ Trade $A now and win big:
https://t.co/IQg1m3KaZd
#MEXCxA
🪂 $A (prev. $EOS) Airdrop+ Online NOW
🔹 $A | @Vaulta_
🎁 Reward Pool: 30,000 $USDT
👇 Join Now
👇 Trade $A on #MEXC
#MEXCxA
Trump's World Liberty(@worldlibertyfi) spent 3M $USDT to buy 3.64M $EOS via PancakeSwap on BSC and spent 3M $USDT to buy 3.75M $A via 1DEX on exSat Network today.
EOS (EOS) has rebranded to Vaulta (A).
MORNING BID
🔸 Nvidia ( $NVDA):
• Q4 adj. EPS $0.89 (est. $0.84)
• revs $39.33B (est. $38.05B)
• Data center revs $35.6B (+93%)
• Auto $570M (+103%)
• Gaming $2.5B (-11%)
• Q1 revs $43B ±2% (est. $41.78B).
🔸 Amazon ( $AMZN): Debuted Ocelot, its first quantum computing chip.
🔸 Snowflake ( $SNOW):
• Q4 EPS $0.30 (est. $0.18)
• revs $986.8M (+28%, est. $956.26M)
• Q1 product revs guidance $955M-$960M (est. $962.6M); expanded Microsoft partnership.
🔸 Salesforce ( $CRM)
• Q4 adj. EPS $2.78 (est. $2.61)
• revs $9.99B (missed est. $10.04B)
• Q1 guidance below consensus: EPS $2.53-$2.55, revs $9.71B-$9.76B.
🔸 https://t.co/dPTowbRrks ( $AI):
• Q3 EPS -$0.12 (est. -$0.25)
• revs $98.8M (+26%, est. $98.1M)
• Q4 revs guidance $103.6M-$113.6M (est. $108.6M).
🔸 Magnite ( $MGNI)
Q4 adj. EPS $0.34 (est. $0.36)
revs $194M (est. $184.3M)
FY adj. EBITDA guidance mid-teens % (est. +12.8%).
🔸 Nutanix ( $NTNX)
Q2 adj. EPS $0.56 (est. $0.47)
revs $654.7M (est. $641.86M)
Q3 revs guidance $620M-$630M (est. $594.39M).
🔸 eBay ( $EBAY)
Q4 adj. EPS $1.25 (est. $1.20)
revs $2.6B (est. $2.58B)
GMV $19.3B (+4%)
Q1 adj. EPS guidance $1.32-$1.36 (est. $1.33)
revs $2.52B-$2.56B (est. $2.59B)
GMV $18.3B-$18.6B.
🔸 Paramount ( $PARA): Q4 revs $7.98B (est. $8.1B); Paramount+ added 5.6M subs (est. 2.58M).
🔸 Pure Storage ( $PSTG): Q4 EPS $0.45 (est. $0.42), revs $879.8M (est. $869.19M); FY revs guidance $3.515B (est. $3.52B).
🔸 Synopsys ( $SNPS): Q1 EPS $3.03 (est. $2.79), revs $1.46B (est. $1.45B); FY EPS guidance $14.88-$14.96 (est. $14.89).
🔸 TaskUs ( $TASK): Q4 EPS $0.31 (est. $0.34), revs $274.2M (est. $268.8M); FY adj. EBITDA margin ~21%.
🔸 TKO Group ( $TKO): Q4 EPS $0.28 (est. $0.21), revs $642.2M (est. $604M); FY adj. EBITDA $1.35B-$1.39B (FY24: $1.25B).
🔸 Norwegian Cruise Line ( $NCLH): Q4 adj. EPS $0.26 (est. $0.11), revs $2.11B (in line); Q1 Net Yield expected to rise ~0.5% y/y (constant currency).
🔸 Urban Outfitters ( $URBN): Q4 adj. EPS $1.04 (est. $0.94), revs $1.64B (+10%, est. $1.61B); Retail segment sales +6.3%, driven by digital and store growth.
🔸 Agilent ( $A): Q1 adj. EPS $1.31 (est. $1.27), revs $1.68B (est. $1.67B); Q2 guidance below estimates; FY25 revs cut to $6.68B-$6.76B (est. $6.82B).
🔸 CareDx ( $CDNA): Q4 adj. EPS $0.18 (est. $0.15), revs $86.6M (est. $84.56M); FY25 revs guidance $365M-$375M (est. $370.02M); Testing services revs +37% y/y.
🔸 Catalyst Pharma ( $CPRX): Q4 EPS $0.70 (est. $0.55), revs $141.8M (+28%, est. $134.2M); FY revs guidance $545M-$565M (est. $558.1M).
🔸 Outset Medical ( $OM): Filed $100M mixed securities shelf.
🔸 Sarepta ( $SRPT): Q4 adj. EPS $1.90 (in line), revs $658.4M (est. $627.58M).
🔸 Teladoc ( $TDOC): Q4 EPS -$0.28 (est. -$0.24), revs $640.49M (est. $639.55M); FY revs and EBITDA guidance below estimates.
🔸 Tandem Diabetes ( $TNDM): Q4 EPS $0.01 (est. -$0.23), revs $282.6M (est. $251.98M); FY revs guidance $997M-$1.007B (est. $1.008B).
🔸 Universal Health ( $UHS): Q4 adj. EPS $4.92 (est. $4.18), revs $4.11B (est. $4.01B); FY revs and EBITDA guidance above estimates.
