Notes
苹果真牛逼。
$AAPL Q4 RESULTS & OUTLOOK
Results:
• Revenue: $102.47B vs. $102.24B est.
• EPS: $1.85 vs. $1.77 est.
• iPhone: $49.03B | iPad: $6.95B | Mac: $8.73B
• Services: $28.75B | Wearables: $9.01B
• Greater China: $14.49B vs. $16.24B est.
Outlook (Q1):
• Revenue growth: 10–12% YoY (vs. 6.6% est.)
• iPhone sales: double-digit growth (vs. 9.8% est.)
• Ongoing supply constraints on some iPhone 16/17 models
Notes:
• China Q4 weakness tied to iPhone Air launch delay
• Dividend: $0.26/share
• CEO Cook expects holiday iPhone sales to top forecasts
$COIN Q3 EARNINGS PREVIEW
• Release: After close, Oct. 30 | Call: 5:30 PM ET
• Estimates: EPS $1.11 ($0.77–$1.54)
• Revenue: $1.80B
• FY EPS: $8.10
• FY Revenue: $7.37B
• Trends: 30-day EPS revisions +0.1% (5 up, 8 down)
• Market: Short interest 5.07%, implied move ±6.8%
• Consensus: Buy | Price Target: $391
$AAPL Q3 EARNINGS PREVIEW
• Release: After close, Oct. 30 | Call: 5:00 PM ET
• Estimates: EPS $1.77 ($1.59–$1.83)
• Revenue: $102.24B
• FY EPS: $7.38 | FY Revenue: $414.82B
• Trends: 30-day EPS revisions +2.1% (11 up, 0 down)
• Market: Short interest 0.74%, implied move ±3.0%
• Consensus: Buy | Price Target: $257
$AMZN Q3 EARNINGS PREVIEW
• Release: After close, Oct. 30 | Call: 5:00 PM ET
• Estimates: EPS $1.57 ($1.18–$1.97)
• Revenue: $177.75B
• FY EPS: $6.72 | FY Revenue: $709.17B
• Trends: 30-day EPS revisions +3.1% (8 up, 2 down)
• Market: Short interest 0.7%, implied move ±6.0%
• Consensus: Buy | Price Target: $267
$MSTR Q3 EARNINGS PREVIEW
• Release: After close, Oct. 30 | Call: 5:00 PM ET
• Estimates: EPS $8.15 (range –$0.11 to $31.90)
• Revenue: $118.43M
• FY EPS: $41.59 | FY Revenue: $460.37M
• Market: Short interest 8.84%, implied move ±5.3%
• Consensus: Buy | Price Target: $541
$AAPL - JEFFERIES: IPHONE DEMAND PICKING UP IN CHINA
Jefferies analyst Edison Lee says iPhone demand in China is recovering, with lead times for iPhone 17 and 17 Air nearly zero. Early shipment data shows 19% year-over-year unit growth, challenging previous negative outlooks.
However, aggressive pricing and lower resale premiums may pressure margins in 2026 despite strong volume growth.
$AAPL - UBS: IPHONE PROMOTIONS BOOST DEMAND, BUT APPLE VALUATION HIGH
UBS analyst David Vogt kept a Neutral rating and $220 price target on Apple. He noted iPhone demand rose due to promotions in China, India, and the U.S., but older models sold less, and average selling prices didn’t increase. With shares now ~32x FY26 EPS, he sees limited upside, especially given Apple’s modest on-device AI.
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$AAPL - IPHONE AIR DEMAND DISAPPOINTS, SUPPLIERS CUT PRODUCTION: MING-CHI KUO
Weak demand for the iPhone Air has prompted suppliers to slash shipments and capacity by over 80% by early 2026, with some parts ending production by late 2025. The move signals that Pro and standard iPhones already meet high-end demand, leaving little room for new variants — much like the failed mini, Plus, and now Air models
$AAPL - ANALYST: APPLE INC. STOCK LOOKS EXPENSIVE
KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brandon Nispel kept a Sector Weight rating on Apple, saying its valuation looks stretched despite strong September data.
Spending rose 17% month over month but fell 15% year over year, showing slowing momentum. Nispel called it “the most bearish” data vs. carrier and survey trends.
KeyBanc still expects Apple to beat iPhone targets in Q4 and guide in line, with FY26 growth driven by higher ASPs. The firm raised FY25–26 revenue estimates by up to 2.2% but kept a neutral view, citing lofty expectations and limited upside.
$AAPL - GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS IPHONE-DRIVEN Q4 BEAT FOR APPLE
Goldman Sachs expects Apple to surpass Q4 earnings and revenue estimates, driven by strong iPhone 17 sales and steady Mac demand from the PC refresh cycle. Analyst Michael Ng anticipates continued iPhone strength into fiscal 2026, supported by U.S. carrier competition and the upcoming iPhone 18 foldable. Goldman maintains a Buy rating and a $279 price target ahead of earnings.






























