Notes
下周又是比较重要的宏观数据和重要公司财报季，你要知道5月初就要公布美联储议息会议的情况了(4月没有)，目前很多分析师认为5月将会开始今年第一次降息，结果大概率就在下周数据里面。
•JOLTS 职位空缺——周二
劳动力市场景气度的领先指标，反映美国职位空缺数量变化。
• 消费者信心指数——周二
由会议委员会（Conference Board）发布，衡量消费者对经济前景的预期情绪。
• ADP 就业人数——周三
民间部门新增就业岗位数据，通常作为官方非农数据的前瞻参考。
• 第一季度 GDP 初值——周三
美国经济增长速度的初步评估，市场高度关注是否出现增长放缓迹象。
• 核心PCE物价指数数据——周三
美联储最偏好的通胀指标，直接影响未来利率决策预期。
• 微软 $MSFT 财报——周三
科技巨头微软发布季度财报，市场关注其AI、云计算业务增长情况。
• Meta平台 $META 财报——周三
社交媒体巨头Meta发布季度财报，重点关注广告收入及AI投入。
• 初请失业金人数——周四
反映美国劳动力市场流动性的最新数据。
• ISM制造业PMI——周四
制造业景气度指标，50以上代表扩张，50以下代表收缩。
• 苹果 $AAPL 财报——周四
全球最大科技公司之一苹果发布财报，关注硬件销量与服务收入表现。
• 亚马逊 $AMZN 财报——周四
电子商务和云计算巨头亚马逊发布财报，AWS（云服务）增长尤受瞩目。
•美国就业报告（非农就业数据）——周五
重点数据，涵盖新增就业岗位、失业率、薪资增长等，影响市场对美联储政策预期。
📊下周是数据与财报双重密集发布周，重点关注：
• GDP与PCE通胀数据 → 影响对经济增长与通胀趋势的判断
• 非农就业数据 → 影响未来货币政策路径
• 科技巨头财报 → 可能引发市场整体风险偏好变化
请保持关注，合理控制仓位，谨慎应对市场波动。🧐
PREMKT
🔸 $AAPL | +4.97%
🔸 $PTON | +4.12%
🔸 $INTC | +3.19%
🔸 $BABA | +2.53%
🔸 $AMD | +2.29%
🔸 $NVDA | +1.70%
🔸 $NFLX | +1.58%
🔸 $MSFT | +1.55%
🔸 $SNAP | +1.51%
🔸 $META | +1.50%
🔸 $AMZN | +1.15%
🔸 $TSLA | +0.99%
🔸 $DIS | +0.90%
🔸 $GOOGL | +0.90%
PREMKT
🔸 $XPEV: -11.68%
🔸 $MSTR: -9.99%
🔸 $BABA: -7.52%
🔸 $TSLA: -7.15%
🔸 $NIO: -6.79%
🔸 $NVDA: -6.35%
🔸 $AMD: -4.40%
🔸 $APPL: -4.23%
🔸 $INTC: -3.88%
🔸 $META: -3.71%
🔸 $AMZN: -3.12%
🔸 $GOOGL: -2.69%
🔸 $BA: -2.42%
🔸 $NFLX: -2.36%
🔸 $MSFT: -2.07%
PREMKT
🔸 $XPEV: -14.20%
🔸 $BABA: -11.45%
🔸 $MSTR: -10.73%
🔸 $NIO: -9.25%
🔸 $TSLA: -8.59%
🔸 $NVDA: -7.05%
🔸 $AMD: -6.02%
🔸 $META: -5.19%
🔸 $INTC: -4.33%
🔸 $AMZN: -4.27%
🔸 $BA: -4.20%
🔸 $NFLX: -3.89%
🔸 $APPL: -3.80%
🔸 $GOOGL: -3.70%
🔸 $MSFT: -3.62%
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
TECH, MEDIA & TELECOM
🔸 Big Tech ( $AAPL, $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $NVDA): Lower as China imposes 34% tariffs on U.S. goods in response to U.S. tariffs.
🔸 China stocks ( $BABA, $BIDU, $PDD, $JD, $SINA, $NTES): Trading sharply lower.
🔸 EU vs. "X": Possible $1B fine for disinformation law violations.
🔸 Five9 ( $FIVN): Q1 EPS, revenue in line or better than guidance; 4% workforce reduction.
CONSUMER
🔸 Booking Holdings ( $BKNG): Upgraded to Buy (BTIG), target $5,500.
🔸 Guess ( $GES): Q4 adj. EPS $1.48 (est. $1.40), revenue $932.3M (+4.6% y/y, est. $912.3M). Gross margin 44.1% (vs. 45.4%). 2026 revenue forecast +3.9%-6.2%, EPS $1.32-$1.76 (est. $2.07). Alberto Toni named CFO. Plans to close unprofitable stores.
🔸 Kraft Heinz ( $KHC): Downgraded to Sell (Citigroup), target cut to $27 due to sales growth concerns.
ENERGY, INDUSTRIALS & MATERIALS
🔸 ExxonMobil ( $XOM): Q1 earnings impact: Energy products (-$0.3B to -$0.7B), upstream (liquids/gas: $0.0B to -$0.4B), chemicals (-$0.1B to $0.1B), specialty (-$0.3B to -$0.1B).
🔸 Matador Resources ( $MTDR): Selling Eagle Ford assets, board reviewing stock repurchase.
🔸 Shell ( $SHEL): Selling 16.125% Colonial Enterprises stake to Brookfield (BIP) for $1.45B.
FINANCIALS
🔸 Cboe ( $CBOE): Q1 options volume 1.1B contracts, March ADV 18.8M (record).
🔸 Franklin Resources (BEN): March AUM $1.53T (Feb: $1.57T), $4B net outflows.
🔸 Progressive ( $PGR): Downgraded to Neutral (Bank of America), target cut to $287 from $300.
HEALTHCARE
🔸 LifeCore ( $LFCR): Q3 EPS -$0.47 (est. -$0.15), revs $35.2M (est. $33.23M). FY guidance: revs $126.5M-$130M, adj. EBITDA $19M-$21M.
🔸 Simulations Plus ( $SLP): Q2 adj. EPS $0.31 (est. $0.12), revs $22.4M (est. $21.9M). FY guidance: revs $90M-$93M, adj. EPS $1.07-$1.20 (est. $0.47).
Premkt
$VIX: 38
$BABA: -8.29%
$JD: -7.77%
$XPEV: -7.49%
$AMZN: -5.40%
$AMD: -5.29%
$INTC: -5.22%
$TSLA: -5.13%
$AAPL: -4.73%
$NIO: -4.55%
$NKE: -4.41%
$MSFT: -4.38%
$META: -4.25%
$RIVN: -3.82%
$NVDA: -3.80%
$GOOGL: -3.07%
$AMC: -2.27%
MARKET UPDATES
CONSUMER
🔸 $BSET: Q1 EPS $0.21 (est. $0.03), rev $82.2M (est. $79.62M).
🔸 $LCID: Q1 production 2,212 vehicles, 600+ in transit; delivered 3,109; files to sell $1B in notes; guides Q1 revs $232M-$236M (est. $256.3M).
🔸 $LYFT: Downgraded to Underperform at BofA, tgt cut to $10.50.
🔸 $NKE, $ADDYY: Shares drop on new 46% Vietnam tariff (impacting AEO, W).
🔸 $RH: Q4 revs $812.4M (est. $829.6M), EPS $1.58 (est. $1.91); guides FY25 rev growth 10%-13%; warns of tariff risks.
🔸 $ROST, $TJX: Upgraded to Buy at Citi; tariffs boost off-price retail inventory.
ENERGY, INDUSTRIALS & MATERIALS
🔸 $BALL, $CCK: Potential impact from new 25% tariff on canned beer, aluminum.
🔸 $EMN: Upgraded to Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $105 (+18% upside).
🔸 $LSTR: Q1 EPS cut to $0.90-$0.95 (prior $1.05-$1.25) due to supply chain fraud.
🔸 $MSM: Q2 EPS $0.72 in line, revs $891.72M (est. $908.3M).
🔸 $PCAR: CFO Harrie Schippers to retire; Brice Poplawski promoted.
FINANCIALS
🔸 $RGP: Q3 adj. EBITDA $1.7M (est. -$0.5M), revs $129.4M (est. $130M).
HEALTHCARE
🔸 $RXST: Cuts FY25 rev view to $160M-$175M (prior $185M-$197M).
🔸 $SRNA: Files for $100M mixed shelf.
🔸 Drugmakers ($AZN, $SNY, $NVO): Spared from Trump tariffs, benefiting exporters.
🔸 Medical Devices ($DXCM, $GHHC, $BSX, $ABT): Under pressure due to new tariffs (34% China, 20% EU).
TECH, MEDIA & TELECOM
🔸 $MSFT: Pausing data center projects, impacting VRT, CRWV, ETN, SMCI, DELL, VST, SMR, OKLO, NRG, CEG.
🔸 $GCT: Increases buyback by $16M.
🔸 $PDD: Investing $13B over three years to support merchants.
🔸 $PENG: Q2 EPS $0.52 (est. $0.38), sales $366M (+29% y/y, est. $345.1M).
Market Updates:
🔸 American Eagle ( $AEO) adds 50M shares to buyback; Q4 revs $1.6B (est. $1.6B); Q1 off to slow start; sees FY25 revs declining low-single digits (est. +2.97%).
🔸 Calavo Growers ( $CVGW) Q1 adj. EPS $0.33 (est. $0.29); revs +21% y/y to $154.39M (est. $161.55M); says Mexico tariffs won’t significantly impact operations.
🔸 Tesla ( $TSLA) partners with Baidu ( $BIDU) to enhance ADAS in China (Reuters).
🔸 Adobe ( $ADBE) Q1 adj. EPS $5.08 (est. $4.97), revs $5.71B (est. $5.66B); reaffirms FY25 targets; Q2 revs guidance $5.77B-$5.82B (est. $5.8B).
🔸 Intel ( $INTC) appoints Lip-Bu Tan as CEO, replacing interim co-CEOs.
🔸 SentinelOne ( $S) Q4 EPS (-$0.22) (est. -$0.21); revs +29% y/y to $225.5M (est. $222.33M); FY26 revs guidance $1.007B-$1.012B (est. $1.03B).
🔸 UiPath ( $PATH) Q4 adj. EPS $0.26 (est. $0.20); revs +4.5% y/y to $423.6M (est. $424.9M); Q1 revs guidance $330M-$335M (est. $367.4M).
🔸 Marvell ( $MRVL) files mixed securities shelf.
🔸 Microsoft ( $MSFT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson.
🔸 Phreesia ( $PHR) Q4 EPS (-$0.11) (est. $0.11); revs $109.7M (est. $108.9M); maintains FY26 revs $472M-$482M, adj. EBITDA outlook.
🔸 Dentsply Sirona ( $XRAY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham.
🔸 Berry ( $BRY) Q4 adj. EPS $0.21 (est. $0.15), revs $187.79M (est. $173M); Q4 production +5% QoQ, +1% YoY; FY25 production 24.8-26 MBoe/d (93% oil); capex $110M-$120M.
🔸 Cummins ( $CMI), Paccar (PCAR) shares down as EPA moves to reverse EV rules; Jefferies sees downside risk if 2027 prebuy doesn’t happen.
🔸 Freight Car ( $RAIL) Q4 revs $137.7M (est. $152.02M); sees FY25 railcar deliveries 4,500-4,900, revs $530M-$595M; Q4 gross margin 15.3% (vs. 9.6% y/y).
🔸 Murphy Oil ( $MUR) acquires FPSO vessels in Gulf of Mexico; cuts annual costs by $60M, reaffirms 2025 capex.
🔸 Sunnova ( $NOVA) exploring restructuring, possible bankruptcy; holds $8.5B in debt (WSJ).
自由落体了，3.11黑色星期二载入史册
自由落体了，BTC已经跌破77000，ETH马上要跌破1800，SOL要破110了，前阵子红火一下的LTC快跌破80了，熊市就这么迅雷不及掩耳地来了！我昨天说气氛是，反弹快跑，看来没错，每一次反弹都是逃生止损的机会，不信邪，就要死。过去1小时ETH爆仓5697万美元，超过BTC爆仓金额。Coinglass 数据显示，过去 1 小时全网爆仓 1.64 亿美元，其中 ETH 爆仓金额 5687 万美元，BTC 爆仓金额为 4612 万美元。
小韭菜被爆了，某巨鲸也不好受，5小时前一位巨鲸因仓位濒临清算卖出2.58万枚 ETH，亏损达3,175万美元！但是现在看，他5小时前的果断行为还是对的。
这位巨鲸因避免仓位清算而在 5 小时前以 1,853 的价格卖出 2.58 万枚 ETH，换得 4781 万 USDT 用于偿还杠杆借款。该巨鲸此前通过循环贷杠杆做多 ETH，于 2024 年 7 月以 3,084 的均价买入这些 ETH。这笔交易导致他仅在杠杆购买的 ETH 上亏损高达 3,175 万。
ETH 价格的下跌促使一些杠杆做多 ETH 的巨鲸仓位濒临清算，不得不卖出 ETH 来降低仓位清算线，而这些卖出行为进一步加剧了 ETH 的下跌。
DeFi TVL已回吐特朗普当选美国总统以来所有涨幅
自 2024 年 11 月特朗普当选美国总统以来，DeFi 协议中锁定的加密货币总价值（TVL）已完全回吐了此前的涨幅。分析师 Miles Deutscher 指出，自美国大选以来，DeFi TVL 在 12 月 17 日一度飙升至 1380 亿美元，但到 3 月 10 日已回落至 926 亿美元。DefiLlama 数据显示，以太坊的 TVL 已从周期高点下跌了 450 亿美元。尽管行业出现了积极的发展，例如美国推出现货 ETF 以及特朗普签署建立战略比特币储备的行政命令，但以太坊在 2021 年 11 月创下的 4787 美元历史高点至今未被突破。
分析师：比特币当前盘整期可能会演变为中期熊市
3 月 11 日，YouHodler 市场主管 Ruslan Lienkha 指出，去年比特币的盘整阶段曾持续数月（甚至长达半年），然后才迎来下一波上涨。不过，他认为当前的市场环境更为复杂。
「美国股市的悲观情绪占据上风，对美国可能出现经济衰退的担忧也在加剧。」Lienkha 表示，「鉴于这些因素，当前的盘整期可能会演变为中期熊市。」
但 Lienkha 指出：「尽管比特币未来有可能演变为避险资产，但目前投资者仍将其视为高风险资产，往往比传统金融市场对市场情绪变化反应更为剧烈。」
雪上加霜，开曼群岛新法规拟4月1日生效，将要求加密托管和交易公司获得许可，这对加密世界来讲，避风港又少了一处。
根据 2025 年 4 月 1 日生效的更新法规《虚拟资产服务提供商（修正案）条例》，开曼群岛将要求加密货币托管和交易公司获得许可才能运营，已经在该国运营的公司必须在 2025 年 6 月 29 日之前提交申请，详细说明资产安全措施和运营细节，据悉 Coinbase、Binance 和 Bitwise 等主要加密货币公司已经在开曼群岛获得许可，而 Sui Foundation 等一些公司已在那里设立总部。
昨晚，美股科技板块全面下跌，“7巨头”市值较近期高点缩水逾3万亿美元
据 solidintel 监测，美股科技板块全面下跌，“7 巨头”市值较近期高点缩水逾 3 万亿美元：
Strategy $MSTR ：-14％；
特斯拉 $TSLA ：-8％；
Palantir $PLTR ：-7％；
Alphabet $GOOGL ：-5％；
Broadcom $AVGO ：下跌 5%；
Meta $META ：-4％；
英伟达 $NVDA ：-4%；
亚马逊 $AMZN ：-3%；
Netflix $NFLX: -3 %；
微软 $MSFT ：-2％
一时间真是四面楚歌，伏尸百万，流血千里，哀鸿遍野！3.11，有一个黑暗的日子载入币圈史册。
当初在10万以上时，那么多人拍大腿没有买7万的比特币，现在可以买了，大家还买吗？要不要做空？谁来给一个答案？
$BTC #BTC #ETH
本文首发币安广场： https://t.co/ljyelCHPpi
Free fall, 3.11 Black Tuesday goes down in history
Free fall, BTC has fallen below 77,000, ETH is about to fall below 1,800, SOL is about to break 110, LTC, which was popular a while ago, is about to fall below 80, and the bear market has come so fast! I said yesterday that the atmosphere is to rebound and run, and it seems to be right. Every rebound is an opportunity to escape and stop loss. If you don't believe in it, you will die. In the past hour, ETH liquidated 56.97 million US dollars, exceeding the amount of BTC liquidation. Coinglass data shows that in the past hour, the entire network liquidated 164 million US dollars, of which ETH liquidated 56.87 million US dollars and BTC liquidated 46.12 million US dollars.
The small leeks were liquidated, and a giant whale was not feeling well. 5 hours ago, a giant whale sold 25,800 ETH because his position was on the verge of liquidation, with a loss of 31.75 million US dollars! But now it seems that his decisive behavior 5 hours ago was still right.
This whale sold 25,800 ETH at 1,853 5 hours ago to avoid position liquidation, in exchange for 47.81 million USDT to repay leveraged loans. The whale had previously leveraged long ETH through revolving loans and bought these ETH at an average price of 3,084 in July 2024. This transaction caused him to lose up to 31.75 million on leveraged ETH alone.
The decline in ETH prices has prompted some whales who are leveraged long ETH to be on the verge of liquidation, and they have to sell ETH to lower the position liquidation line, and these selling behaviors have further exacerbated the decline of ETH.
DeFi TVL has given up all gains since Trump was elected as the US President
Since Trump was elected as the US President in November 2024, the total value of cryptocurrencies locked in DeFi protocols (TVL) has completely given up its previous gains. Analyst Miles Deutscher noted that since the US election, DeFi TVL surged to $138 billion on December 17, but fell back to $92.6 billion by March 10. DefiLlama data shows that Ethereum's TVL has fallen by $45 billion from its cyclical high. Despite positive developments in the industry, such as the launch of spot ETFs in the United States and Trump's executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, Ethereum's all-time high of $4,787 in November 2021 has not been broken so far.
Analyst: Bitcoin's current consolidation period may evolve into a medium-term bear market
On March 11, YouHodler Market Director Ruslan Lienkha pointed out that Bitcoin's consolidation phase lasted for several months (even up to half a year) before the next wave of increases. However, he believes that the current market environment is more complicated.
"Pessimism in the U.S. stock market is prevailing, and concerns about a possible U.S. recession are also growing," Lienkha said. "Given these factors, the current consolidation period could evolve into a medium-term bear market."
But Lienkha pointed out: "Although Bitcoin has the potential to evolve into a safe-haven asset in the future, investors currently still view it as a high-risk asset, which tends to react more violently to changes in market sentiment than traditional financial markets."
To make matters worse, new regulations in the Cayman Islands are scheduled to take effect on April 1, which will require crypto custody and trading companies to obtain licenses, which is one less safe haven for the crypto world.
According to the updated regulations, the Virtual Asset Service Providers (Amendment) Regulations, which will take effect on April 1, 2025, the Cayman Islands will require cryptocurrency custody and trading companies to obtain licenses before they can operate. Companies already operating in the country must submit applications by June 29, 2025, detailing asset security measures and operational details. It is reported that major cryptocurrency companies such as Coinbase, Binance and Bitwise have already obtained licenses in the Cayman Islands, and some companies such as Sui Foundation have established headquarters there.
Last night, the U.S. tech sector fell across the board, and the market value of the "Big 7" shrunk by more than $3 trillion from its recent highs
According to solidintel monitoring, the U.S. tech sector fell across the board, and the market value of the "Big 7" shrunk by more than $3 trillion from its recent highs:
Strategy $MSTR: -14%;
Tesla $TSLA: -8%;
Palantir $PLTR: -7%;
Alphabet $GOOGL: -5%;
Broadcom $AVGO: down 5%;
Meta $META: -4%;
Nvidia $NVDA: -4%;
Amazon $AMZN: -3%;
Netflix $NFLX: -3%;
Microsoft $MSFT: -2%
For a while, it was really surrounded by enemies, with millions of corpses, thousands of miles of blood, and wailing everywhere! 3.11, there was a dark day recorded in the history of the currency circle
When the price was over 100,000, many people didn't buy 70,000 Bitcoin. Now you can buy it, will you still buy it? Do you want to short it? Who can give an answer? @Agent_SunLumi
This article was first published on Binance Square: https://t.co/ljyelCHPpi
This is inexcusable.
Representative Fallon has said on cutting food stamps: "We have a message for those kind of folks: If you're able-bodied and you want to milk the taxpayer, those days are over. Get off the couch, stop eating the Cheetos, stop buying the medical marijuana and watching television. You're actually gonna contribute now."
But look at his unusual trading.
Pat Fallon sits on subcommittee responsible for DoD software contracts + cybersecurity.
In 2021, he sold up to $250,000 in $MSFT right before JEDI contract cancellation in June.
Microsoft, $MSFT, dropped as a result of the cancellation.
Unusual.
MORNING BID
🔸 Apple ( $AAPL) plans to invest $500B in the U.S. over 4 years, boosting AI, silicon engineering, and skills development, including a new Houston facility for Apple Intelligence servers and 20,000 R&D jobs.
🔸 Disney’s ( $DIS) “Captain America: Brave New World” topped box office in week 2 with $28.2M, down from $100M debut over 4 days in week 1.
🔸 Microsoft ( $MSFT) is canceling U.S. datacenter leases, possibly signaling excess AI capacity, per TD Cowen; also claims a quantum computing breakthrough, but physicists doubt it, per WSJ.
🔸 Twilio ( $TWLO) upgraded to overweight from equal-weight by Morgan Stanley, citing strong execution for growth and margins.
🔸 Alibaba ( $BABA) plans to invest $52B in AI and cloud infrastructure over 3 years, surpassing its last decade’s spending.
🔸 Domino’s ( $DPZ) Q4: EPS $4.89 (est. $4.90), revenue $1.44B (est. $1.47B), comp store sales up 0.4% (est. 1.63%), international comps up 2.7%; dividend raised 15% to $1.74/share, gross margin steady at 39.2%.
🔸 Nike ( $NKE) upgraded to Buy from Hold by Jefferies, citing a strong recovery in the next 2 years.
🔸 Target Hospitality ( $TH) notified that the U.S. government will end its Pecos Children’s Center agreement, effective around Feb 21, 2025.
🔸 Wingstop ( $WING) upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Guggenheim.
🔸 CF Industries ( $CF) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform by Bank America, PT $84, seen as fairly priced with balanced risk/reward after selloff.
🔸 Newmont ( $NEM) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight by JPMorgan.
🔸 Westlake Chemical ( $WLK) Q4: EPS $0.06 (est. $1.08), sales $2.84B (est. $2.97B), operating income $66M (-9.6% y/y), EBITDA $416M (+6.7% y/y, est. $524.5M).
🔸 Berkshire Hathaway ( $BRK.B) Q4 EPS $13,695 (vs. $26,043 last year); 2024 investment gains: $3.1B after-tax in Q4, $79.6B full year; 2023: $330M Q4 loss, $3.6B full-year gain; no stock buybacks in Q4.
Equitable Holdings ( $EQH) offers to buy up to 46M AllianceBernstein ($AB) units at $38.50 each, totaling $1.8B, a 7.8% premium over Feb 21 closing price.
🔸 NMI Holdings ( $NMIH) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform by Keefe Bruyette.
🔸 BioCryst ( $BCRX): ORLADEYO trial shows positive results for kids aged 2-12 with hereditary angioedema; real-world studies confirm significant attack rate drops in patients with C1-INH deficiency and normal C1-INH.
🔸 Summit Therapeutics ($SMMT) teams up with Pfizer ($PFE) to test ivonescimab with Pfizer’s cancer therapies ( ADCs) across tumor types; Summit supplies the drug, Pfizer runs the studies.