Notes
$PYPL Q1 RESULTS & GUIDANCE:
Q1 Results:
🔸 Adj. EPS: $1.33 (vs. est. $1.16; up from $1.08 y/y)
🔸 Payment volume: $417.2B (+3.3% y/y; est. $419.2B)
🔸 Venmo: $75.9B (+9.6% y/y)
🔸 Net revenue: $7.79B (+1.2% y/y; est. $7.85B)
🔸 Transaction margin dollars: $3.72B (+7.4%; est. $3.62B)
🔸 Payment transactions: 6.05B (–7.1%; est. 6.67B)
🔸 Active accounts: 436M (+2.1%; est. 434M)
Q2 Guidance:
🔸 Adj. EPS: $1.29–$1.31 (est. $1.22)
🔸 Transaction margin dollars: $3.75B–$3.80B (est. $3.74B)
Full-Year Guidance (Unchanged):
🔸 Adj. EPS: $4.95–$5.10 (est. $5.02)
🔸 Transaction margin dollars: $15.2B–$15.4B (est. $15.22B)
🔸 Free cash flow: $6B–$7B (est. $6.74B)
🔸 Capex: ~$1B (est. $919M)
I hope everybody had a nice week. Great to see the reactions we did as a lot of impulse signals triggered where we expected them to(when the least were expecting it once again)💪Lots to unpack and dive into this weekend
Subscriber Agenda
Video: Why did miners fade into the close?
Charts:
New Impulse- #BTC LTF potential paths, $MARA, $RIOT, $CLSK, $IREN, $WULF, $CIFR, $SMLR, $XRP, $LINK, $LTC, $HOOD, $QQQ, $IWM, $SPY, $MSTR, $ETH, $DOGE
Ongoing Corrective- $TSLA, $PLTR, $SOFI, $MBLY, $MU, $PYPL, $CELH, $UPST(some of these names made big moves this week but I'm not sold corrections are over)
Correction Nearing Completion?- $CGC, $SQ, $NIO, $JD, $AMC, $LMND
Subscriber Requests- $XLM, $RUNE
#Upgrades - Dec 13, 2024
• $CAH: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Equal Weight from Underweight - PT $127 (from $101)
• $CCS: JPMorgan Upgrades to Neutral from Underweight - PT $97 (from $110)
• $CIEN: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $95 (from $70)
• $CNC: UBS Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $80 (from $79)
• $CRM: KeyBanc Upgrades to Overweight from Sector Weight - PT $440
• $GIS: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $80 (from $78)
• $GLPI: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $54 (from $49)
• $NCLH: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $32 (from $28)
• $PENN: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $27 (from $19)
• $PTCT: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $67
• $PTEN: Goldman Sachs Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $10
• $PYPL: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Outperform from Peerperform - PT $107
• $RHI: Truist Securities Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $90
• $SGMO: Truist Securities Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $7
• $SRE: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $98 (from $85)
• $TASK: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $21 (from $18)
• $UPBD: Stephens Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $38
• $UPST: Needham Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $100
• $VAC: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $116 (from $97)
• $VNOM: KeyBanc Upgrades to Overweight from Sector Weight - PT $62
🔸 $RITM - RITHM CAPITAL SHARES UP 1.5% PREMARKET AFTER Q3 RESULTS
🔸 $MCD - MCDONALD'S SHARES FALL ABOUT 1% PREMARKET AFTER Q3 GLOBAL SALES FALL MORE THAN EXPECTED
🔸 $PYPL - PAYPAL SHARES DOWN 4.5% PREMARKET AFTER CO FORECASTS Q4 REVENUE BELOW ESTIMATES
🔸 $BOOT - BOOT BARN HOLDINGS SHARES DOWN 5.7% PREMARKET AFTER Q3 PROFIT FORECAST MISS, CEO CHANGE
🔸 $NARI - INARI SHARES UP 8.1% PREMARKET AFTER CO RAISES FY2024 REVENUE FORECAST
🔸 $JBLU - JETBLUE AIRWAYS SHARES DOWN 5% PREMARKET AFTER RESULTS
🔸 $CROX - CROCS SHARES DOWN 8.4% PREMARKET AFTER Q4 PROFIT FORECAST BELOW ESTIMATES
🔸 $AMT - AMERICAN TOWER SHARES DOWN 3.1% PREMARKET AFTER Q3 RESULTS
🔸 $MAS - SHARES OF MASCO DOWN ABOUT 2% PREMARKET AFTER Q3 REVENUE MISS
$PYPL RESULTS: Q3
🔸 ADJ EPS $1.20 vs. $0.98 y/y, EST $1.07
🔸 Total payment volume $422.64B, +9% y/y, EST $421.64B
🔸 Transaction margin dollars $3.65B
🔸 Payment transactions 6.63B, +5.7% y/y, EST 6.83B
🔸 Active customer accounts 432M, +0.9% y/y, EST 429.42M
🔸 Net revenue $7.85B, +5.8% y/y, EST $7.88B
🔸 Transaction revenue $7.07B, +6.2% y/y, EST $7.13B
🔸 Other value added services revenue $780M, +2.1% y/y, EST $746.9M
🔸 US net revenue $4.52B, +6.1% y/y, EST $4.43B
🔸 International net revenue $3.33B, +5.3% y/y, EST $3.44B
🔸 ADJ operating income $1.48B, EST $1.38B
🔸 ADJ operating margin 18.8% vs. 16.9% y/y, EST 18.6%
🔸 Total operating expenses $6.46B, +3.3% y/y, EST $6.6B
🔸 ADJ free cash flow $1.54B, F/Y GUIDANCE
🔸 Still sees share buyback $6B, - Still sees free cash flow about $6B
#Downgrades - Oct 10, 2024
$ALTM: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $5.85 (from $4.25)
$ALTM: Raymond James Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform
$AMT: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $230 (from $245)
$AZUL: Seaport Global Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
$BP: Scotiabank Downgrades to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform - PT $36 (from $42)
$CG: CFRA Downgrades to Sell from Hold - PT $45
$CRUS: Barclays Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $120 (from $140)
$FA: Wolfe Research Downgrades to Peerperform from Outperform
$HII: Vertical Research Partners Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $275
$HII: Wolfe Research Downgrades to Peerperform from Outperform
$HON: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $235 (from $225)
$HUBB: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $454 (from $385)
$HXL: Vertical Research Partners Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $65
$LEU: Roth/MKM Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $62 (from $55)
$LULU: CFRA Downgrades to Hold from Strong Buy - PT $280
$NTR: UBS Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $51 (from $66)
$OGN: CFRA Downgrades to Sell from Hold - PT $16
$PEP: TD Cowen Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $183 (from $190)
$PYPL: Bernstein Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $80 (from $75)
$SAR: Ladenburg Thalmann Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
$SWKS: Barclays Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $87 (from $115)
$PYPL - PAYPAL COMPLETES ITS FIRST BUSINESS TRANSACTION USING STABLECOIN
PayPal Holdings Inc. completed its first business payment using its proprietary stablecoin as a way to demonstrate how digital currencies can be used to improve often-clunky commercial transactions.
https://t.co/iyvP4DcBDZ
$PYPL RESULTS: Q2
🔸Total payment volume $416.81B, +11% y/y, EST $417.27B
🔸Net revenue $7.89B, +8.2% y/y, EST $7.82B
🔸Transaction revenue $7.15B, +9.1% y/y, EST $7.08B
🔸Other value added services revenue $732M, +0.1% y/y, EST $726.3M
🔸US net revenue $4.55B, +8.1% y/y, EST $4.46B
🔸International net revenue $3.34B, +8.4% y/y, EST $3.36B
🔸Transaction margin dollars $3.61B, +7.8% y/y
🔸Total operating expenses $6.56B, +6.6% y/y, EST $6.71B
🔸ADJ operating income $1.46B, EST $1.31B
🔸ADJ EPS $1.19, EST $1.00
🔸Free cash flow $1.37B
🔸ADJ free cash flow $1.14B, EST $1.06B
🔸Active customer accounts 429M, -0.5% y/y, EST 427.47M
🔸Payment transactions 6.58B, +8.3% y/y, EST 6.76B
F/Y GUIDANCE
🔸Sees share buyback $6B, saw at least $5B
🔸Sees free cash flow about $6B, saw about $5B