Notes
Republican Tim Moore disclosed numerous stock trades.
A lot of these are very well timed trades.
For example, he sold a ton of $F Ford and $HOG Harley-Davidson, BEFORE tariff news and auto tariffs effecting these companies, causing them to collapse.
He also seems to be day trading with $TNA a 3x leveraged ETF, as well as YieldMax $SMCI option income etf $SMCY.
Unusual.
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY:
Energy, Industrials, Materials:
🔸 James Hardie ( $JHX.AX) to buy AZEK for $8.75B; AZEK shareholders get $56.88/share.
🔸 FedEx ( $FDX) upgraded to Buy at Jefferies; price target cut to $275.
🔸 Japan's steel output fell 8.5% YoY in Feb, lowest since July 2020.
Financials:
🔸 Ally Financial ( $ALLY) on 90-day catalyst watch at Citigroup.
🔸 Bitcoin up 3% to ~$88K; crypto firms return to India.
🔸 Fifth Third ( $FITB) files mixed shelf offering.
🔸 IRS expects $500B revenue loss as taxpayers skip filings.
Healthcare:
🔸 Bayer ( $BAYRY) ordered to pay $2.1B over Roundup cancer case; plans appeal.
🔸 TOMS Capital pushes for changes at Kenvue ( $KVUE).
🔸 23andMe ( $ME) files for Chapter 11; CEO Anne Wojcicki resigns.
Tech, Media, Telecom:
🔸 Ant Group uses Chinese chips for AI training, cutting costs 20%.
🔸 Super Micro ( $SMCI) downgraded to Sell at Goldman; target cut to $32.
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY:
CONSUMER:
🔸 Colgate ( $CL): New $5B buyback, dividend to $0.52.
🔸 $NCLH: Upgraded to Equal Weight (Morgan Stanley).
🔸 Lennar ( $LEN): Q1 EPS $2.14 (est. $1.73), rev $7.63B (est. $7.49B); Q2 orders 22.5k-23.5k, deliveries 19.5k-20.5k.
🔸 Nike ( $NKE): Q3 EPS $0.54 (est. $0.28), rev $11.3B (est. $11.03B); guides Q4 rev down mid-teens.
🔸 $NIO: Q4 rev $2.7B (est. $2.79B), EV deliveries up 45%; Q1 guide: 41k-43k vehicles, rev $1.69B-$1.76B (est. $2.48B).
🔸 Torrid ( $CURV): Q4 sales -6.1% y/y; guides Q1 sales $264M-$274M (est. $279M), EBITDA below estimates.
🔸 Target ( $TGT): Files $1B note offering due 2035.
Energy/Industrials/Materials:
🔸 FedEx ( $FDX): Q3 EPS $4.51 (miss), rev $22.2B (beat); cuts FY25 guidance.
🔸 Nucor ( $NUE): Q1 EPS guide $0.50-$0.60 (est. $1.09); sees lower steel product prices.
🔸 Planet Labs ( $PL): Q4 loss -$0.08 (est. -$0.02), rev $61.6M; Q1 guide below est.
🔸 U.S. Steel ( $X): Q1 EBITDA $125M (in line), EPS loss guided larger than est.
🔸 BP ( $BP): Elliott pushes for cost cuts, possible board changes (Reuters).
Healthcare:
🔸 Assembly Bio ( $ASMB): Files $250M mixed shelf.
🔸 Editas ( $EDIT): CFO stepping down.
🔸 Foghorn ( $FHTX): Files $100M shelf.
🔸 J&J ( $JNJ): Plans $55B investment in U.S. manufacturing/research.
🔸 Maravai ( $MRVI): Guides Q1 rev $43M-$45M (est. $63M).
🔸 Vor Bio ( $VOR): Files $350M shelf.
Tech/Media/Telecom:
🔸 Micron ( $MU): Q2 EPS $1.56 (beat), rev $8.05B; Q3 guide above est.
🔸 Luminar ( $LAZR): Sees slower Q1, FY25 rev growth 10%-20%.
🔸 Quantum ( $QUBT): Q4 loss -$0.47 (miss), rev $62k; chip foundry launch in 2025.
🔸 Super Micro ( $SMCI): Upgraded to Neutral (JPM), price target raised to $45.
Super Micro Computer $SMCI is up 21% after filing updated financials.
$SMCI has a very active options market.
Today, traders were net bullish by 45%, with a flurry of calls in the final minutes of trading.
You can see traders bought $50 calls expiring (10% OTM) in two days throughout the day today, with most activity right at close.
Grouped across 5 minute intervals shows a mixed close however, with slightly bullish lean by traders into close.
You can get full breakdowns of any option activity, set up alerts for last minute buys , and more at Unusual Whales!
$SMCI $NVDA
U.S. PROMPTS NVIDIA, SUPERMICRO PROBE INTO HOW CHIPS ENDED UP IN CHINA- THE INFORMATION
COMMERCE DEPARTMENT RECENTLY ASKED NVIDIA TO LOOK INTO SMUGGLING OF ITS CHIPS TO CHINA OVER THE PAST YEAR- THE INFORMATION
NVIDIA ASKED BIG DISTRIBUTORS LIKE SUPERMICRO AND DELL TO DO SPOT CHECKS OF THEIR CUSTOMERS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA- THE INFORMATION
MOVING UP
$GAP surged 5% after an upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by JP Morgan, with a new price target of $30. They revised their FY25 EPS to $2.30 and FY26 EPS to $2.53, expecting revenue growth and margin expansion.
$INTC rose 2% on CEO Pat Gelsinger's retirement announcement. David Zinsner and Michelle Johnston Holthaus are appointed interim Co-CEOs, with Frank Yeary as Interim Executive Chair while a permanent successor is sought.
$NBIS soared 16% after securing $700M through a private placement involving NVDA, planning to issue 33.33M Class A shares at $21/share.
$NVCR jumped 30% following successful trial results where its cancer therapy, combined with chemotherapy, extended pancreatic cancer patient survival from 14.16 to 16.20 months on average.
$PTCT climbed 14% after licensing its experimental Huntington's Disease drug, PTC518, to a Novartis unit for up to $2.9B, with $1B upfront.
$SMCI increased 14% after confirming no need to restate financials, with no evidence of shipping incomplete products to boost quarterly revenue.
$TNDM went up 6% after an upgrade to Overweight from Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley, with a $45 price target, citing undervalued stock and potential in type-2 diabetes market expansion.
$TSLA gained 2% with Stifel maintaining its Buy rating, raising the target to $411, praising Tesla's broader market vision beyond just being an automaker. Additionally, Roth MKM upgraded TSLA to Buy, setting a $380 target, highlighting potential catalysts for value increase.
MOVING DOWN
$CORZ drops 5% on news of a $500M convertible senior notes offer for 2031.
$NU falls 5%, hit by Citigroup's downgrade to Sell, citing profit-taking despite strong growth in Brazil.
$PCG slides 5% after announcing $2.4B in stock offerings.
$STLA tumbles 8% following CEO Carlos Tavares' sudden resignation after nearly four years.
$UPST plunges 11%, downgraded to Underweight at JP Morgan, with caution advised on fintech at current valuations.
MORNING RECAP
• $LOW Q3: EPS $2.89 (beat consensus $2.81), sales $20.2B (beat consensus $19.92B); Q3 comp sales -1.1% due to weak DIY demand, offset by storm sales and growth in Pro and online. Revised full-year outlook: sales $83B-$83.5B, EPS $11.80-$11.90.
• $ADM: Q3 profit fell due to weak North American crush margins; Nutrition segment expects better Q4 but not as high as Q3 2024.
• $CTRN: Appointed Ken Seipel as CEO; Q3 sales $179.1M, comp sales up 5.7%.
• $WEN: Ken Cook appointed as CFO, effective December 2, 2024.
• $XPEV: Q3 revenue $1.39B, above estimates; EPS loss of $1.90, worse than expected $1.71 loss. Q4 revenue forecast at $2.09B-$2.21B; launched P7+ sedan.
• $ACM increases buyback to $1B; Q4 EPS $1.27, revenue $4.11B, slightly below consensus. FY25 EPS forecast $5.00-$5.20.
• $AMCR to acquire $BERY in $8.4B stock deal at a 10% premium.
• $AVAV acquiring BlueHalo in $4.1B stock deal.
Oil prices dip as Johan Sverdrup field restarts post-outage.
• $ERII launches $50M stock repurchase.
• $NPSCY engages with $X stakeholders to push for $15B acquisition.
• $SYAXF to merge with $PLL in an all-stock deal, valuing the new entity at $623M.
• $SYM Q4 operating income exceeds expectations; sets Q1 revenue guidance at $495-515M.
U.S. defense stocks rise following Russia's updated nuclear policy and threats.
• $DOC ups 2024 FFO guidance to $1.80-$1.82, citing strong portfolio performance.
• $INCY stock drops after pausing a phase 2 study due to preclinical findings.
• $MDT Q2 revenue up 5.2% to $8.4B, raises FY25 EPS outlook slightly.
• $OMCL issues $150M in convertible senior notes.
• $SYRE plans to offer $200M in common stock and warrants.
• $AMD: Darla Smith resigns as Chief Accounting Officer on November 15.
• $GOOGL stock declines as DOJ plans to demand the sale of Chrome browser.
• $INTC: Efforts to distribute manufacturing grants under the Chips Act are stalled, with most of the $39B yet to be disbursed.
• $MSTR aims to raise $1.75B through convertible senior notes.
• $MCHP: Ganesh Moorthy retires; Steve Sanghi appointed as interim CEO.
• $SMCI stock rises after appointing BDO USA as auditor and seeking Nasdaq compliance extension
Stock Gainers Brief:
• $CVS: +3%; added four new board members, including Larry Robbins from Glenview Capital, expanding to 16 members; upgraded by Wells Fargo.
• $FOUR: +4%; to join S&P MidCap 400 in place of RCM on November 20.
• $HOOD: +6%; upgraded to Buy by Needham due to expected benefits from Trump's policy changes at SEC.
• $LBRT: +2%; stock up with Chris Wright, a fracking advocate, nominated for Energy Secretary.
• $MBI: +10%; upgraded to Outperform by KBW with a new $9 target after favorable legal and earnings news.
• $SMCI: +9%; plans to meet Nasdaq compliance requirements for continued listing.
• $TSLA: +8%; due to Trump team's interest in autonomous vehicle regulations.
• $WOLF: +5%; CEO Gregg Lowe ousted, Thomas Werner steps in as Executive Chairman during CEO search.
Stock Laggards Brief:
• $BIIB: -1%; downgraded to Hold by Needham, with no expected upside in the next year.
• $CMAX: -55%; filed for bankruptcy with $693M in debt, $390M in assets.
• $LLY: -4%; continues to decline with other obesity/healthcare stocks.
• $MARA: -6%; issuing $700M in convertible notes.
• $NGNE: -35%; halted development of high-dose gene therapy due to serious side effect.
• $PLTR: -9%; despite being a top S&P performer YTD, sees significant drop.
• $UBER & $LYFT: -6%; both affected by news of potential regulations for autonomous vehicles.
MORNING RECAP
• $TSLA +8% pre-market on report of Trump's team prioritizing self-driving vehicle regulations.
• $BG approved $500M more for stock buybacks.
• $F faces recall investigation for 112,567 vehicles due to seat belt issues.
• $GIS prepares for mixed securities offering.
• $SAVE files for bankruptcy due to financial losses.
• $LBRT shares up as Chris Wright, its CEO and fracking advocate, is named Energy Secretary by Trump.
• Trump's efficiency drive to slash federal contractor rates, led by Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk.
• Oil prices decline due to ample global supply and weak demand outlook from China.
• Manulife's CEO Roy Gori to retire in May 2025.
• $MARA plans to offer $700M in convertible notes.
• $HOODupgraded to Buy by Needham, target $40.
• Shift4 Payments to join S&P MidCap 400, replacing RCM, effective Nov 20. R1 RCM acquisition by TowerBrook and CD&R set for Nov 19.
• $BIIB downgraded to Hold by Needham with no expected upside in the next year.
• $CVS upgraded to Overweight by Wells Fargo, target price now $66.
• $CVS to add four new board members including Larry Robbins from Glenview Capital.
• $NVDA faces overheating issues with its Blackwell GPUs in server setups.
• $ALAB gets Buy rating from Citigroup with $120 target.
• $MPWR upgraded to Buy after stock drop.
• $SMCI aims to submit Nasdaq compliance plan.
• $WBD settles NBA lawsuit, extends partnership for 10+ years.
RECAP
• $CAVA: Q3 EPS $0.15, above expectations of $0.11; sales up 39% to $243.8M; FY guidance for restaurant comp sales at 12.5%, up from 8.5-9.5%, and EBITDA at $123M. Plans to increase restaurant openings and margins.
• $FLUT: Q3 adjusted EBITDA up 74% to $450M; revenue up 27% to $3.25B; raised full-year forecasts for EBITDA and revenue, expecting 35% profit increase.
• $CART: Q3 EPS $0.42 vs. $0.22 est.; revenue $852M vs. $844M est.; Q4 EBITDA guidance $230M-$240M, below estimate; increased buyback program by $250M.
• $LNW: Q3 net income $64M, less than $100.7M expected; revenue $817M, slightly below $821.21M; continues double-digit revenue growth.
• $RIVN: Formed JV with Volkswagen for tech development, with VW investing up to $5.8B by 2027.
• $SAVE: Shares fell -60% due to bankruptcy filing rumors, currently negotiating with creditors.
• $TSLA: Recalling 2,431 Cybertrucks due to potential power loss issues, marking the sixth recall this year.
• $MODG: Q3 EPS loss at -$0.02, better than -$0.16 expected; revenue $1.01B, above $983M forecast; adjusted full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance downwards.
• $OXY: Q3 adj EPS $1.00, above $0.74 expected; production rose 15.7% to 1.41 Mboepd due to CrownRock acquisition, despite lower prices; Q4 production expected at 1.43-1.47 Mboepd.
• $RKLB: Q3 EPS ($0.10) vs. ($0.11) est., with revenues at $104.8M vs. $102.3M est.; Q4 revenue guidance $125-135M, with a new multi-launch deal for Neutron.
• $DHT: Q3 EPS $0.22, topping $0.20 estimate; adjusted EBITDA $70.4M vs. $66.4M expected, on slightly lower than expected adjusted revenues of $92.64M.
• $AB): Reported a 2% drop in AUM to $793B in October 2024 from $806B due to market downturn, with no net inflows or outflows.
• $MARA: Q3 revenue increased by 34% to $131.6M, missing the forecast of $137.5M.
• $PAY: Q3 EPS was $0.15 compared to $0.09 expected; revenue hit $231.6M against $190.6M estimated. They foresee Q4 revenue at $215M-$220M and FY24 at $829M-$834M, both above consensus.
• $RKT: Q3 adjusted EPS met estimates at $0.08; adjusted EBITDA was $286M, above the $272.33M expected, with revenues at $1.323B, beating the forecast. They anticipate a drop in Q4 revenue to $1.05-1.2B.
• $WULF: Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $6M, below the $11.2M prediction, with revenues at $27.1M, not meeting the $34.28M estimate.
• $AMGN: Clarified no link between MariTide use and bone density changes, despite earlier reports of potential loss. The company remains confident in the drug's future.
• $ICUI: Q3 adjusted EPS $1.59 vs $1.25 expected; revenue $589.131M vs $574.7M forecast, with a gross margin of 34.8%. FY guidance raised for EPS and EBITDA.
• $NTRA: Q3 EPS ($0.26) vs ($0.57) expected, revenue $439.8M vs $361.45M; FY revenue guidance set at $1.61-1.64B, above consensus.
• $PGNY: Q3 EPS $0.11, below $0.13 expected; revenue $286.625M vs $296.88M; full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance below market expectations.
• $SGMO: Q3 EPS $0.04, better than ($0.03) expected; revenue $49.41M vs $17.94M forecast. Adjusted annual operating expenses expected to be $125-145M.
• $SYRS: Shares dropped -80% after the SELECT-MDS-1 trial for tamibarotene failed to meet its primary endpoint, leading to discontinuation of the study.
• $DOX: Q4 adjusted EPS $1.70, matching expectations, with revenue at $1.264B, slightly above the $1.263B estimate.
• $PLUS: Q2 adjusted EPS $1.36, below $1.39 expected; revenue $515.2M vs $576.5M forecast. Full-year sales guidance unchanged, but adjusted EBITDA expected at $195-205M.
• $IAS: Q3 EPS $0.10 vs $0.07 expected, with revenue at $133.528M and a gross margin of 80%. Q4 revenue and EBITDA guidance were both below expectations.
• $SOUN: Q3 adjusted EPS ($0.04) vs ($0.07) expected; revenue $25.1M, above $23.02M estimate. Set FY24 and FY25 revenue targets.
• $SWKS: Q4 adjusted EPS $1.55 vs $1.52, revenue $1.025B, nearly matching estimates. Q1 guidance for revenue and EPS below expectations.
• $SPOT: Q3 revenue growth of 19% to €3.99B missed the €4.02B estimate; profit margin improved. Q4 revenue guidance below expectations but operating income and MAUs on target.
• $SMCI: Announced delay in filing Q3 2024 quarterly report due to ongoing issues with the annual report.
• $ZI: Q3 adjusted EPS $0.28, surpassing the $0.22 estimate; revenue $303.6M vs $299.38M. Q4 revenue guidance in line with estimates, but EPS slightly below consensus.
