Notes
最近半年团队主要研究 #AI 和 #RWA 赛道比较多，被问及最多的问题：‘#AI 是不是已经过了最热的“炒作期”？’，因为我们看到很多 #AI 加密项目或股票，貌似涨速有点慢或者不涨了！
我的看法是——远远没有。现在的 #AI，差不多就相当于1995年、1996年互联网的阶段。那时候大家刚开始上网，浏览器才出来没几年，亚马逊、谷歌都还没真正爆发，但趋势已经很清晰了。#AI 现在也差不多这样，刚进入加速成长期。
🧐为何这么说？
1️⃣算力依旧是瓶颈，也是最大机会，做AI要训练大模型，需要巨量的算力。美国这边有英伟达，芯片卖到断货。中国这边因为美国的出口管制，反而倒逼出一条本土产业链。比如寒武纪（Cambricon）这种公司，股价和市值都翻了好几倍。背后逻辑很简单：没有芯片，AI走不动。这就是最底层的“铲子生意”。我自己投股票的时候，最看重这种“确定性刚需”，不管AI应用做得怎么样，算力永远少不了。
2️⃣中国的“Buy China”逻辑，中美关系其实是把“双刃剑”。美国不卖顶级芯片给中国，看似是打压，但反过来成了国产替代的超级机会。没有封锁，中国的AI公司可能还在用英伟达的GPU，也不会有动力自己研发芯片。现在反而逼出了一个完整的国产生态。我在看中国半导体、算力相关公司的时候，这一点就是核心逻辑：自给自足是国家战略，市场够大，需求也刚性。
3️⃣政府是超级风投，你要看中国的模式，其实很像10年前的新能源车。那时候政府补贴电池、补贴买车，硬是把比亚迪、宁德时代推起来了。现在AI和机器人也一样，地方政府出补贴、投基金，相当于官方当“早期VC”，先给产业打地基。剩下的就交给企业家去拼执行力。作为投资人，我的判断是：政府方向决定赛道，企业家决定龙头。
投资的衡量标准，我们看一个AI或者机器人项目，最关键是两个问题：
✅它能不能真正解决痛点？比如机器人，能不能真的在家庭里帮老人、能不能在仓库里搬货，不是光好看、噱头大。
✅它有没有产品市场匹配度（PMF）？就是说，这个产品是刚需，还是锦上添花？如果只是“看上去很酷”，但没人愿意为它买单，那就不行。在AI模型上也是一样。现在模型满大街都是，但能真正跑通商业模式的，要么解决企业的需求（比如代码自动化、办公提效），要么解决消费者的需求（比如智能助手、娱乐）。我投项目时，最怕那种“炫技”型公司，看上去技术牛，但没落地场景。
长期趋势我判断，未来3-5年里，AI算力的需求会是现在的10倍甚至100倍。这意味着：
· 上游的芯片、算力基础设施公司，还是最稳的“吃肉”位置。
· 中游的大模型会越来越分化，能落地的会脱颖而出，光靠堆钱堆算力的可能会被淘汰。
· 下游的应用场景（比如机器人），现在看起来还早，但一旦找到像电动车那样的突破口，成长会非常惊人。
所以我们在 #AI 赛道的投资思路：
第一层：算力/芯片 → 确定性最强，国家战略支持，需求无限大(加密也是类似逻辑，分布式GPU算力依旧有空间)。
第二层：大模型 → 拼资源和落地场景，要慎重挑选，差距很快拉开。
第三层：应用（机器人等） → 风险大，但如果踩中龙头，可能是百倍回报。
所以我现在看AI，就像看当年的互联网和新能源车。远远没到泡沫破灭的时候，反而刚刚进入“加速跑道”。🧐
#AI 时代，👇是我们比较看好的美股 #AI 公司：
最近英伟达老板黄仁勋提到，我们仍处于人工智能的早期阶段。现阶段仍然处于超大规模企业部署阶段，属于第二阶段，如👇图。
• 第一阶段(核心基础设施)： $NVDA ， $ASML ， $AMD ， $TSM ， $AVGO ， $NBIS
• 第二阶段(超大规模企业)： $MSFT ， $META ， $GOOGL ， $AMZN
• 第三阶段(平台型)： $PLTR ， $NOW ， $TEM ， $CRWD ， $NET
• 第四阶段(应用集成)： $SPOT ， $SHOP ， $NFLX ， $TSLA ， $LMND ， $FIG
🚀 24H Top 5 Gainers on #KuCoin (June 11, 2025)
1. $HOME (@defidotapp) - $0.032 (+540%)
2. $RESOLV (@ResolvLabs) - $0.36 (+265%)
3. $ZEX (@ZetaMarkets) - $0.092 (+112%)
4. $WAXL (@axelar) - $0.49 (+48%)
5. $SPOT (@Defispot) - $0.0006 (+39%)
#Ku24hour
如果你看好 @bonk_fun 平台代币的后续的话，目前的代币我总结一下(刚出来几个小时还没活过一天的暂时不列入)：
第一梯队 $Hosico #USELESS
第二梯队 #LetsBONK
第三梯队 $SPOT $GOD $CHACHA $BONKAI
重点关注 @theunipcs @TheOnlyNom @SolportTom @iamkadense @bonk_fun @bonk_inu
.@bonk_fun 最近躁得不行，连续出金狗， $HOSICO #USELESS $SPOT $GOD ，如果不想错过下一个100X，记得关注@theunipcs @SolportTom @TheOnlyNom @iamkadense @bonk_inu
@bonk_fun is on fire recently! if u don't want miss next 100X，follow @theunipcs @SolportTom @TheOnlyNom @theunipcs
.@bonk_fun 最近躁得不行，连续出金狗， $HOSICO #USELESS $SPOT $GOD ，如果不想错过下一个100X，记得关注@theunipcs @SolportTom @TheOnlyNom @iamkadense @bonk_inu
@bonk_fun is on fire recently! if u don't want miss next 100X，follow @theunipcs @SolportTom @TheOnlyNom @theunipcs @bonk_inu @iamkadense
🚀 24H Top 5 Gainers on #KuCoin (May 8, 2025)
1. $KAITO (@KaitoAI) - $1.44 (+40%)
2. $DUCK (@Duck_Chain) - $0.0031 (+28%)
3. $SPOT (@Defispot) - $0.00046 (+24%)
4. $MOG (@mogcoin) - $0.0000008 (+23%)
5. $CTI (@ClinTexCTi) - $0.005 (+20%)
#Ku24hour
🚀 24H Top 5 Gainers on #KuCoin (May 6, 2025)
1. $WLTH (@joincommonwlth) - $0.0066 (+179%)
2. $DOMIN (@Domin_Network) - $0.0052 (+72%)
3. $KIMA (@KimaNetwork) - $0.113 (+67%)
4. $SPOT (@Defispot) - $0.0005 (+41%)
5. $PARTI (@ParticleNtwrk) - $0.304 (+30%)
#Ku24hour
🚨Thank you for the flow that caught my attention on $SPOT @unusual_whales
It's not just big flow that makes you loads of money!
These tiny orders caught my eye, causing me to check out the other BTO put volume coming in. I got a+1,770% gain in 2 days w/ the 575p I took🙏
Do you know that @realDonaldTrump has a Robot Dog named $Spot ? @RoboDog_Spot
CA:
4yaJWpNob51GCKRGdfczxzs5hUhy6NBdjbARxN9cpump
RECAP
• $CAVA: Q3 EPS $0.15, above expectations of $0.11; sales up 39% to $243.8M; FY guidance for restaurant comp sales at 12.5%, up from 8.5-9.5%, and EBITDA at $123M. Plans to increase restaurant openings and margins.
• $FLUT: Q3 adjusted EBITDA up 74% to $450M; revenue up 27% to $3.25B; raised full-year forecasts for EBITDA and revenue, expecting 35% profit increase.
• $CART: Q3 EPS $0.42 vs. $0.22 est.; revenue $852M vs. $844M est.; Q4 EBITDA guidance $230M-$240M, below estimate; increased buyback program by $250M.
• $LNW: Q3 net income $64M, less than $100.7M expected; revenue $817M, slightly below $821.21M; continues double-digit revenue growth.
• $RIVN: Formed JV with Volkswagen for tech development, with VW investing up to $5.8B by 2027.
• $SAVE: Shares fell -60% due to bankruptcy filing rumors, currently negotiating with creditors.
• $TSLA: Recalling 2,431 Cybertrucks due to potential power loss issues, marking the sixth recall this year.
• $MODG: Q3 EPS loss at -$0.02, better than -$0.16 expected; revenue $1.01B, above $983M forecast; adjusted full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance downwards.
• $OXY: Q3 adj EPS $1.00, above $0.74 expected; production rose 15.7% to 1.41 Mboepd due to CrownRock acquisition, despite lower prices; Q4 production expected at 1.43-1.47 Mboepd.
• $RKLB: Q3 EPS ($0.10) vs. ($0.11) est., with revenues at $104.8M vs. $102.3M est.; Q4 revenue guidance $125-135M, with a new multi-launch deal for Neutron.
• $DHT: Q3 EPS $0.22, topping $0.20 estimate; adjusted EBITDA $70.4M vs. $66.4M expected, on slightly lower than expected adjusted revenues of $92.64M.
• $AB): Reported a 2% drop in AUM to $793B in October 2024 from $806B due to market downturn, with no net inflows or outflows.
• $MARA: Q3 revenue increased by 34% to $131.6M, missing the forecast of $137.5M.
• $PAY: Q3 EPS was $0.15 compared to $0.09 expected; revenue hit $231.6M against $190.6M estimated. They foresee Q4 revenue at $215M-$220M and FY24 at $829M-$834M, both above consensus.
• $RKT: Q3 adjusted EPS met estimates at $0.08; adjusted EBITDA was $286M, above the $272.33M expected, with revenues at $1.323B, beating the forecast. They anticipate a drop in Q4 revenue to $1.05-1.2B.
• $WULF: Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $6M, below the $11.2M prediction, with revenues at $27.1M, not meeting the $34.28M estimate.
• $AMGN: Clarified no link between MariTide use and bone density changes, despite earlier reports of potential loss. The company remains confident in the drug's future.
• $ICUI: Q3 adjusted EPS $1.59 vs $1.25 expected; revenue $589.131M vs $574.7M forecast, with a gross margin of 34.8%. FY guidance raised for EPS and EBITDA.
• $NTRA: Q3 EPS ($0.26) vs ($0.57) expected, revenue $439.8M vs $361.45M; FY revenue guidance set at $1.61-1.64B, above consensus.
• $PGNY: Q3 EPS $0.11, below $0.13 expected; revenue $286.625M vs $296.88M; full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance below market expectations.
• $SGMO: Q3 EPS $0.04, better than ($0.03) expected; revenue $49.41M vs $17.94M forecast. Adjusted annual operating expenses expected to be $125-145M.
• $SYRS: Shares dropped -80% after the SELECT-MDS-1 trial for tamibarotene failed to meet its primary endpoint, leading to discontinuation of the study.
• $DOX: Q4 adjusted EPS $1.70, matching expectations, with revenue at $1.264B, slightly above the $1.263B estimate.
• $PLUS: Q2 adjusted EPS $1.36, below $1.39 expected; revenue $515.2M vs $576.5M forecast. Full-year sales guidance unchanged, but adjusted EBITDA expected at $195-205M.
• $IAS: Q3 EPS $0.10 vs $0.07 expected, with revenue at $133.528M and a gross margin of 80%. Q4 revenue and EBITDA guidance were both below expectations.
• $SOUN: Q3 adjusted EPS ($0.04) vs ($0.07) expected; revenue $25.1M, above $23.02M estimate. Set FY24 and FY25 revenue targets.
• $SWKS: Q4 adjusted EPS $1.55 vs $1.52, revenue $1.025B, nearly matching estimates. Q1 guidance for revenue and EPS below expectations.
• $SPOT: Q3 revenue growth of 19% to €3.99B missed the €4.02B estimate; profit margin improved. Q4 revenue guidance below expectations but operating income and MAUs on target.
• $SMCI: Announced delay in filing Q3 2024 quarterly report due to ongoing issues with the annual report.
• $ZI: Q3 adjusted EPS $0.28, surpassing the $0.22 estimate; revenue $303.6M vs $299.38M. Q4 revenue guidance in line with estimates, but EPS slightly below consensus.
#Downgrades - Nov 13, 2024
• $AE: B.Riley Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $38 (from $45)
• $ANGI: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $2.50 (from $3.25)
• $ANGI: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $2 (from $3.25)
• $ARCH: Jefferies Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $165 (from $155)
• $BCAB: H.C. Wainwright Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $CAT: Evercore ISI Downgrades to Underperform from In Line - PT $365 (from $321)
• $CCLD: Roth/MKM Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $3.50 (from $5)
• $COTY: TD Cowen Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $8.50 (from $11)
• $CPT: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $121 (from $120)
• $DOCS: Canaccord Genuity Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $60 (from $40)
• $ESAB: Evercore ISI Downgrades to Underperform from In Line - PT $122 (from $102)
• $ETN: Evercore ISI Downgrades to In Line from Outperform - PT $389 (from $333)
• $IP: BNP Paribas Downgrades to Underperform from Neutral - PT $48.20
• $ITW: Evercore ISI Downgrades to Underperform from In Line - PT $255 (from $246)
• $MASS: Leerink Partners Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $4
• $PGNY: Truist Securities Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $19 (from $26)
• $RAPT: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $2 (from $7)
• $SBUX: Redburn-Atlantic Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $77 (from $84)
• $SHOP: ATB Capital Markets Downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform
• $SOUN: Ladenburg Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $7
• $SPOT: Phillip Securities Downgrades to Accumulate from Buy - PT $485 (from $420)
• $SVRA: Evercore ISI Downgrades to In Line from Outperform - PT $5 (from $7)
• $SYRS: Brookline Capital Markets Downgrades to Hold from Buy
• $SYRS: H.C. Wainwright Downgrades at Neutral from Buy - PT $1 (from $6)
• $SYRS: JMP Securities Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform
• $SYRS: TD Cowen Downgrades to Hold from Buy
• $TNK: BofA Securities Downgrades to Underperform from Neutral - PT $46 (from $51)
• $WMS: Stephens Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $135
$EEFI flywheel is getting started. No mentions on timeline yet.
Study the mechanics
Study inflation resistant stable coins
Study @asymmetryfin
Study the backers
And u will understand why.
$SPOT & $AMPL
If u wonder why $EEFI is going up, read this. Its all maths. Current Ampl price 1.31.
👇🏻
Seems like the flywheel is getting started for $EEFI and people try to front run the inevitable pump once $AMPL truly takes off.
Big wallets buying in already:
0x49Ec0bb2272E77Be9c3295C9fc12EF989696F590
Personally, @base has been one of the most dissapointing executions ever.
One of the most anticipated launches failed (FT). Farcaster is the only one in crypto space to compete with web2 social platforms though.
Low-tier memes where they just put 'blue' versions on whatever mascot (talking about base native memes).
Not supporting legit projects by listing / endorsing at official twitter. Only with Miggles? Lol. No DeFi / utility etc. Why not supporting $SPOT as a stable coin currency for example?
Failed marketing where they just try to extract attention from @jessepollak.
I am going to give it some time and if no substantial change, will see it as a loss and move on.
Hopefully this tweet will mark the bottom.
Nothing changed for me. Still holding these. Time will tell.
Great developments for all of them:
$FP: Gameplay 2.0 end of month, airdrop & referreal campaign soon, base smart wallet release, metrics up price oversold. Actively playing myself too, its really good.
$PEAS: LVF being audited, expecting utility coins to make a come back.
$EEFI: $AMPL / $SPOT getting traction, Brian Armstrong publicly shilling.
#PEPECOIN / #BasedAI: currently cyanet testnet, mainnet soon with release of the brains.
$QUIL: 2.0 release expected July 20th. Smart contract release.
$NPC: Massive run, now consolidating, Elon tweeted about NPC this week 3 times. Political debates heating up. A lot of things happening in the back ground too.
https://t.co/U3Mf2vDjLe
