Notes
最近半年团队主要研究 #AI 和 #RWA 赛道比较多,被问及最多的问题:‘#AI 是不是已经过了最热的“炒作期”?’,因为我们看到很多 #AI 加密项目或股票,貌似涨速有点慢或者不涨了!
我的看法是——远远没有。现在的 #AI,差不多就相当于1995年、1996年互联网的阶段。那时候大家刚开始上网,浏览器才出来没几年,亚马逊、谷歌都还没真正爆发,但趋势已经很清晰了。#AI 现在也差不多这样,刚进入加速成长期。
🧐为何这么说?
1️⃣算力依旧是瓶颈,也是最大机会,做AI要训练大模型,需要巨量的算力。美国这边有英伟达,芯片卖到断货。中国这边因为美国的出口管制,反而倒逼出一条本土产业链。比如寒武纪(Cambricon)这种公司,股价和市值都翻了好几倍。背后逻辑很简单:没有芯片,AI走不动。这就是最底层的“铲子生意”。我自己投股票的时候,最看重这种“确定性刚需”,不管AI应用做得怎么样,算力永远少不了。
2️⃣中国的“Buy China”逻辑,中美关系其实是把“双刃剑”。美国不卖顶级芯片给中国,看似是打压,但反过来成了国产替代的超级机会。没有封锁,中国的AI公司可能还在用英伟达的GPU,也不会有动力自己研发芯片。现在反而逼出了一个完整的国产生态。我在看中国半导体、算力相关公司的时候,这一点就是核心逻辑:自给自足是国家战略,市场够大,需求也刚性。
3️⃣政府是超级风投,你要看中国的模式,其实很像10年前的新能源车。那时候政府补贴电池、补贴买车,硬是把比亚迪、宁德时代推起来了。现在AI和机器人也一样,地方政府出补贴、投基金,相当于官方当“早期VC”,先给产业打地基。剩下的就交给企业家去拼执行力。作为投资人,我的判断是:政府方向决定赛道,企业家决定龙头。
投资的衡量标准,我们看一个AI或者机器人项目,最关键是两个问题:
✅它能不能真正解决痛点?比如机器人,能不能真的在家庭里帮老人、能不能在仓库里搬货,不是光好看、噱头大。
✅它有没有产品市场匹配度(PMF)?就是说,这个产品是刚需,还是锦上添花?如果只是“看上去很酷”,但没人愿意为它买单,那就不行。在AI模型上也是一样。现在模型满大街都是,但能真正跑通商业模式的,要么解决企业的需求(比如代码自动化、办公提效),要么解决消费者的需求(比如智能助手、娱乐)。我投项目时,最怕那种“炫技”型公司,看上去技术牛,但没落地场景。
长期趋势我判断,未来3-5年里,AI算力的需求会是现在的10倍甚至100倍。这意味着:
· 上游的芯片、算力基础设施公司,还是最稳的“吃肉”位置。
· 中游的大模型会越来越分化,能落地的会脱颖而出,光靠堆钱堆算力的可能会被淘汰。
· 下游的应用场景(比如机器人),现在看起来还早,但一旦找到像电动车那样的突破口,成长会非常惊人。
所以我们在 #AI 赛道的投资思路:
第一层:算力/芯片 → 确定性最强,国家战略支持,需求无限大(加密也是类似逻辑,分布式GPU算力依旧有空间)。
第二层:大模型 → 拼资源和落地场景,要慎重挑选,差距很快拉开。
第三层:应用(机器人等) → 风险大,但如果踩中龙头,可能是百倍回报。
所以我现在看AI,就像看当年的互联网和新能源车。远远没到泡沫破灭的时候,反而刚刚进入“加速跑道”。🧐
#AI 时代,👇是我们比较看好的美股 #AI 公司:
最近英伟达老板黄仁勋提到,我们仍处于人工智能的早期阶段。现阶段仍然处于超大规模企业部署阶段,属于第二阶段,如👇图。
• 第一阶段(核心基础设施): $NVDA , $ASML , $AMD , $TSM , $AVGO , $NBIS
• 第二阶段(超大规模企业): $MSFT , $META , $GOOGL , $AMZN
• 第三阶段(平台型): $PLTR , $NOW , $TEM , $CRWD , $NET
• 第四阶段(应用集成): $SPOT , $SHOP , $NFLX , $TSLA , $LMND , $FIG

SECTOR NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
TECH/MEDIA/TELECOM:
🔸 Netflix ( $NFLX): Beats Q1 earnings; strong Q2 guidance.
🔸 Nvidia ( $NVDA): Down 3% on Huawei AI chip shipment news.
🔸 Cognizant ( $CTSH)/DocuSign ( $DOCU): Expand partnership.
🔸 Disney ( $DIS): Upgraded to Outperform at Wolfe Research; $112 target.
🔸 Tempus AI ( $TEM): Initiated with Buy at BTIG; $60 target.
CONSUMER:
🔸 Amazon ( $AMZN): Downgraded at Raymond James; price target cut to $195 from $275.
🔸 QXO: Extends $124.35/share tender offer for Beacon Roofing (BECN).
🔸 Tesla ( $TSLA): Affordable car launch delayed; low-cost Model Y production to begin in U.S.
ENERGY/INDUSTRIALS/MATERIALS:
🔸 Boeing ( $BA): Returning rejected 737 Max jets from China to U.S.
🔸 Cosco Shipping: Warns U.S. tariffs on Chinese ships threaten global trade.
🔸 EU: Eases methane rules to avoid gas-related trade clash with U.S.
FINANCIALS:
🔸 Capital One ( $COF): Gets approval to acquire Discover (DFS), becoming top U.S. credit card lender.
🔸 Comerica ( $CMA): Beats Q1 estimates; EPS $1.25 vs est. $1.18.
🔸 Global Payments ( $GPN): Downgraded at Jefferies; target cut to $75.
🔸 Independent Bank ( $INDB): Misses Q1 EPS; raises dividend by 4%.
HEALTHCARE:
🔸 Pacira ( $PCRX): Approves $300M stock buyback.
🔸 Regeneron ( $REGN)/Sanofi (SNY): FDA approves Dupixent for chronic hives in patients 12+.
📢 行情回暖---TEM幸运盲盒盛大开启!🎉
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- 免费盲盒券×2,使用次数翻倍!🎟🎟
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📅 活动时间:2025.03.04 – 2025.03.31
快来试试手气,大奖等你拿!🍀💎
更多详情🚪 https://t.co/YEXU7HLUon

📢 行情回暖---TEM幸运盲盒盛大开启!🎉
iPhone、Galaxy手机、金条、比特币等你来抢!
🎁 开盲盒赢豪礼,就差你了!
- 玩3次以上,就有机会抽中 智能手机!📱
- 零手续费!充币、提币、兑换全都免费!💰
- 免费盲盒券×2,使用次数翻倍!🎟🎟
- 新用户注册,直接空投7枚 $TEM 代币!🎊
📅 活动时间:2025.03.04 – 2025.03.31
快来试试手气,大奖等你拿!🍀💎
更多详情🚪 https://t.co/ivepfciTOu

#Downgrades - Feb 25, 2025
• $AB: TD Cowen Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $38.50 (from $38)
• $CIVI: KeyBanc Downgrades to Sector Weight from Overweight
• $FPI: Lucid Capital Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $12.50 (from $13)
• $HIMS: Nephron Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $40
• $LILA: Barclays Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $6.50 (from $8)
• $O: BNP Paribas Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $61
• $TEM: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $55 (from $50)
Good night to everyone:
Look at this.
Nancy Pelosi and husband exercised their Nvidia, $NVDA, calls last month for millions in profit, exercing their 500 call options for Nvidia on Dec. 20 that had a strike price of $12, selling those exercised shares for +200% profit.
Today, $NVDA was down 17%.
She also bought $VST, $TEM, $GOOGL, $AMZN calls, but $VST is now below her buying.


Good morning to everyone:
Everything you need to know on The Rundown podcast by @public
TOP MARKET HEADLINES
* Trump buys time for TikTok with executive order
* FDA approves $JNJ's nasal spray for depression
* Nancy Pelosi buys $TEM call options
* $AAPL gets rare downgrade to Underperform
https://t.co/j8Xgw4tOd0
#Downgrades - Nov 11, 2024
• $AGL: JMP Securities Downgrades to Market Perform from Market Outperform
• $ALTM: Scotiabank Downgrades to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform - PT $5.85
• $ARDX: H.C. Wainwright Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $5.50
• $ATMU: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $45 (from $42)
• $BLMN: Raymond James Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform
• $CBT: JPMorgan Downgrades to Underweight from Neutral - PT $105
• $CE: BMO Capital Downgrades to Underperform from Market Perform - PT $76 (from $138)
• $CE: UBS Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $97 (from $161)
• $GCMG: TD Cowen Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $15.50
• $IMCR: Mizuho Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $38 (from $72)
• $MRK: Daiwa Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform
• $NOV: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $18 (from $21)
• $NRDY: JPMorgan Downgrades to Underweight from Neutral
• $NVR: Seaport Global Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $PRA: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $18
• $RVTY: Nephron Downgrades to Sell from Sell - PT $105
• $SMAR: Guggenheim Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $TDW: Raymond James Downgrades to Outperform from Strong Buy - PT $102 (from $131)
• $TEM: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $65 (from $45)
• $VALE: UBS Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $11.50 (from $14)
• $WHF: Oppenheimer Downgrades to Perform from Outperform - PT $12 (from $14)
• $XERS: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $3
#Downgrades - Oct 02, 2024
$NKE: CFRA Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $89
$GRTS: Jones Trading Downgrades to Hold from Buy
$SSTK: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $2 (from $8)
$GEV: Raymond James Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform
$PRMW: Raymond James Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform
$PBF: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $40 (from $53)
$HOG: Baird Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $40 (from $44)
$MELI: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $2,400
$FMBH: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $42
$NTB: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $41 (from $44)
$ESQ: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $72 (from $68)
$TMUS: Raymond James Downgrades to Outperform from Strong Buy - PT $221 (from $208)
$IBM: DZ Bank Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $215
$STTK: Needham Downgrades to Hold from Buy
$SITC: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $19
$PVH: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $107 (from $130)
$CRL: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $215 (from $250)
$TEM: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $60 (from $45)
$ZIM: Jefferies Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $25
$KZR: H.C. Wainwright Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
$MBLY: BNP Paribas Exane Downgrades to Underperform from Neutral - PT $12
$GRTS: B.Riley Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $1 (from $3)


















































