Notes
说一下 Lighter EVM
从战略上来说跟HyperEVM的效果是差不多的，但Hyper和Lighter的处境完全不同：
Hyper是自己开辟一个生态，以Perps的成功向外吸引用户和应用建设，已初具规模。
Lighter是把高性能Perps嵌入到以太坊，理论上可以继承以太坊的应用基建扶自己往前走。
所以，从生态增长角度来说
HyperEVM的增长路径是依靠Perps的成功不断吸附用户和资金，自己吸引借贷、稳定币、vault、资产管理等协议来构建组合性。
Lighter理论上可以直接利用以太坊已有的资产、稳定币、LSD、借贷体系，比如LLP作为抵押品、自己构建稳定币，这些资产可以非常顺畅与以太坊现有的基础设施组合。
从估值上来说，即使两家的交易量、用户数在同一个水平，我仍然认为 $HYPE 的天花板更高，因为它包含了L1的估值以及经济安全性的保障， $LIT 则更像一个Protocol，当然它自己搞了Rollup之后，就更像Uniswap和Unichain的类型。目前Lighter的问题是增长过慢，EVM开启后，这个动作非常关键，如果不能借此来提升协议增长，后面可打的牌就越来越少了。
Basket of assets already with a good safety margin.
≈ 11-12% up if split evenly.
I personally went heavier on HYPE. If you buy these ones, you can chill. Establish SLs for good risk management to have a full cash position.
I’m being mindful of FOMC this week, but feel the R:R is skewed towards the upside:
• More cuts to be priced in the forward curve. Currently only ≈ 50 bps with a new Trump’s appointee from May onwards.
• The move in Japan is more about front running and less about real intervention. MOF hasn’t said anything yet.
• Inflation swaps re-accelerating. Potential rate cuts will make real rates to roll over.
• Gold $5,100 and Silver $117. Even if 1-5% of the wealth effect created by these assets go into BTC we will see a significant bounce. BTC $100k+ will bring this money into the asset imo.
• Not forgetting mid-term elections.
These 5 assets should benefit from improved liquidity conditions.
$hype and $lit -> bet on tradfi perps market to highly increase. Clear selling absorption on both assets. As Hype leads and tradfi perps pie grows people will realize that even a small % captured by Lighter should reprice it higher, especially as the ratio w/ hype gets bigger. Future speculation about = robinhood dex will send it higher too.
$pump -> almost 20% circ. supply absorbed below ICO prices with revenue above HL sometimes. The revenue-to-HL ratio went from 37% in October to 71% in January while mcap ratio has decreased. No unlocks until mid july.
$btc as SoV and main benefitiary of the gold/silver trades, more pricing of rate cuts, and real interest rates rolling over.
$zec as the main privacy trade, giving another +ev entry close to $300
整理了一下近期山寨市场的催化剂。
2026 开年这段时间，山寨整体依旧处于流动性偏紧以及市场对高FDV和长锁仓PTSD的状态，
能讲清楚现金流或者分配机制再或者可退出性的项目更容易被重新估值，
相反只要出现临时改路线图换链改政策等等动作，社区就会立刻把它往rug和收割最后一波去解读。
$PENDLE ：Pendle 正把 vePENDLE 模式升级为 sPENDLE， sPENDLE是一种流动性质押代币，不再要求多年锁仓，同时改为14 天退出提现周期。
$PUMP ：Pump. fun 推出 300 万美元 “Build in Public” 黑客松；同时用 Pump Fund 继续推动 Pump. fun 上的创业/应用生态。
$ZORA ：Solana 把 Zora 协议的 $ZORA 纳入其链上生态交易版图，延续Zora 要做所有资产的市场叙事。
$WLFI ：World Liberty Financial 联合Dolomite 上线 World Liberty Markets，用户可存入资产赚收益，或用持仓做抵押借款。
$YB ：Yield Basis 提出 Hybrid Vault混合金库，用户加仓 YB 池子的额度由个人上限决定，而上限取决于用户对 crvUSD 锚定稳定的贡献。
$MON 、 $SOL ：Etherfuse 与 新韩证券（Shinhan Securities）达成合作，目标是在韩国及亚洲扩展代币化主权债，通过其 stablebond 框架，把政府债券带到链上，覆盖 Monad、Solana、Stellar 等网络。
$ME ：Magic Eden发布新的质押奖励计划，将平台15% 的收入分配给 $ME 质押者，形式为 代币回购 + USDC 分发的组合。
另外还有几个SOL的利好，2026是SOL年：
Remora Markets 在 Solana 上新增 5 个 RWA 产品，提供跟踪 黄金、白银、铂金、钯金、铜的代币化 ETF。
同时Solana 上 RWA 总市值已突破 10 亿美元，由代币化基金、股票与大宗商品推动
thBILL 现已在 Solana 上实现抵押支持（collateralized），
背后有超过 2500 万美元的 ULTRA 抵押品支持，抵押品由渣打旗下 Libera 发行。
目前来看，对于整个perp dex打击最大的其实是 @Lighter_xyz $LIT 上线后一直下跌。
这也直接导致了 @edgeX_exchange 的上线市值，从之前预计2B，到现在1B的概率都从89%跌到78%了🤣。
只能说莫非这是在下一盘大棋😂。
有时候其实挺感叹 @KaitoAI 的，最高市值3B左右，不得不佩服当时的市场行情。
就好像现在大家都在拼命的刷perp dex，都期待遇到下一个 $LIT $ASTER $HYPE .
等 @opinionlabsxyz 上线后，大家也会猛干预测市场，期待遇到下一个 $OPINION 一样。
最终大家一边想要赚钱，一边又想刷交易量，一边又想要xxxx，最终的结果就是“竹篮打水一场空”。
因为我已经把刷 @variational_io 的钱开多亏完了😭，想了想拿去烧明明能得更多分🤮。
目前正在努力刷 @opinionlabsxyz 但是xdm实在是太卷了！
刚看到去中心化永续合约交易所的数据：2025全年合约交易量中Hyperliquid合约交易量2.93万亿美元，网页流量670万；Lighter合约交易量1.314万亿美元，网页流量1165万；Aster合约交易量7910亿美元，网页流量 1323 万。
$HYPE 目前完全稀释估值是232亿美元； $ASTER 目前完全稀释估值是49.5亿美元； $LIT 目前完全稀释估值是17.3亿美元。
2025年12月30日Lighter在TGE当天向早期参与者空投了总供应量25%代币2.5亿枚LIT，抛压估计还有，不敢买多，先换了点小仓位过来，纯粹感觉对比HYPE和ASTER很有性价比。
LIT的代币解锁情况是这样，50%要到2026年12月30日左右才会开始首批解锁，进入为期 3 年的线性释放期；剩下的25%预留用于未来的积分赛季、合作伙伴激励和增长计划，将根据项目进度逐步释放。
目前上现货的交易所中看GATE大门交易所交易量最好，我也是GATE大门交易所买的。
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growth metrics on lighter outperforming competitors recently, despite its price action.
—————————
FDV / VOLUME
(based on 7D average)
lit — 1.87 / 3.6 = 0.52
hype — 24 / 5.8 = 4.13
FDV / OI
lit — 1.87 / 1.43 = 1.3
hype — 24 / 9.6 = 2.5
based on these metrics, $lit is clearly undervalued in comparison to $hype.
for several reasons, revenue comparisons are misplaced atm:
> different aproach, where lighter focuses on hypergrowth with lowest fees
> different utility. lighter introduced staking for LLP and other services. features not live and additional utilities still rolling out.
> potential growth with connections to tradfi. clear signs that this goes further than just speculations — fastest robinhood listing after tge; US legally approved; recent conferende with Tom Lee / fundstrat.
with price being at ATL, think the opportunity just got better. if u believe that the crypto space has the best yet to come, with potentially eth/alts starting to outperform; a zk-l2 perp dex which such fundamentals and adoption makes a lot sense imo.
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