Notes
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
TECH, MEDIA & TELECOM
🔸 Big Tech ( $AAPL, $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $NVDA): Lower as China imposes 34% tariffs on U.S. goods in response to U.S. tariffs.
🔸 China stocks ( $BABA, $BIDU, $PDD, $JD, $SINA, $NTES): Trading sharply lower.
🔸 EU vs. "X": Possible $1B fine for disinformation law violations.
🔸 Five9 ( $FIVN): Q1 EPS, revenue in line or better than guidance; 4% workforce reduction.
CONSUMER
🔸 Booking Holdings ( $BKNG): Upgraded to Buy (BTIG), target $5,500.
🔸 Guess ( $GES): Q4 adj. EPS $1.48 (est. $1.40), revenue $932.3M (+4.6% y/y, est. $912.3M). Gross margin 44.1% (vs. 45.4%). 2026 revenue forecast +3.9%-6.2%, EPS $1.32-$1.76 (est. $2.07). Alberto Toni named CFO. Plans to close unprofitable stores.
🔸 Kraft Heinz ( $KHC): Downgraded to Sell (Citigroup), target cut to $27 due to sales growth concerns.
ENERGY, INDUSTRIALS & MATERIALS
🔸 ExxonMobil ( $XOM): Q1 earnings impact: Energy products (-$0.3B to -$0.7B), upstream (liquids/gas: $0.0B to -$0.4B), chemicals (-$0.1B to $0.1B), specialty (-$0.3B to -$0.1B).
🔸 Matador Resources ( $MTDR): Selling Eagle Ford assets, board reviewing stock repurchase.
🔸 Shell ( $SHEL): Selling 16.125% Colonial Enterprises stake to Brookfield (BIP) for $1.45B.
FINANCIALS
🔸 Cboe ( $CBOE): Q1 options volume 1.1B contracts, March ADV 18.8M (record).
🔸 Franklin Resources (BEN): March AUM $1.53T (Feb: $1.57T), $4B net outflows.
🔸 Progressive ( $PGR): Downgraded to Neutral (Bank of America), target cut to $287 from $300.
HEALTHCARE
🔸 LifeCore ( $LFCR): Q3 EPS -$0.47 (est. -$0.15), revs $35.2M (est. $33.23M). FY guidance: revs $126.5M-$130M, adj. EBITDA $19M-$21M.
🔸 Simulations Plus ( $SLP): Q2 adj. EPS $0.31 (est. $0.12), revs $22.4M (est. $21.9M). FY guidance: revs $90M-$93M, adj. EPS $1.07-$1.20 (est. $0.47).
MORNING BID
🔸 Apple ( $AAPL) lost an appeal in Germany, facing tighter regulations after a long market debate.
🔸 Baidu ( $BIDU) rises on reports Tesla (TSLA) will launch Full Self-Driving (FSD) in China this year, partnering with Baidu. Free FSD trials run March 17–April 16.
🔸 Getty Images ( $GETY) Q4 EPS: $0.06 (est. $0.04); adj. EBITDA: $80.6M (est. $74M); FY25 revenue guidance: $918–955M (est. $955M).
🔸 Alphabet ( $GOOGL) is in advanced talks to buy cybersecurity firm Wiz for ~$30B, per WSJ; a deal could finalize soon.
🔸 Lucid ( $LCID) upgraded to equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
🔸 Masterbrand ( $MBC) adds $50M share buyback.
🔸 Nio ( $NIO) partners with CATL for battery swap network, using CATL’s Choco-Swap tech in Firefly models.
🔸 Toronto ends Tesla ( $TSLA) taxi/ride-share incentives over U.S. trade tensions.
🔸 Audi ( $VWAGY) may raise prices to offset U.S. tariffs.
🔸 Xiaomi ( $XIACY) raises 2025 EV target to 350,000 units; Q4 revenue up 48% to 109B yuan, beating estimates.
Market Updates:
🔸 American Eagle ( $AEO) adds 50M shares to buyback; Q4 revs $1.6B (est. $1.6B); Q1 off to slow start; sees FY25 revs declining low-single digits (est. +2.97%).
🔸 Calavo Growers ( $CVGW) Q1 adj. EPS $0.33 (est. $0.29); revs +21% y/y to $154.39M (est. $161.55M); says Mexico tariffs won’t significantly impact operations.
🔸 Tesla ( $TSLA) partners with Baidu ( $BIDU) to enhance ADAS in China (Reuters).
🔸 Adobe ( $ADBE) Q1 adj. EPS $5.08 (est. $4.97), revs $5.71B (est. $5.66B); reaffirms FY25 targets; Q2 revs guidance $5.77B-$5.82B (est. $5.8B).
🔸 Intel ( $INTC) appoints Lip-Bu Tan as CEO, replacing interim co-CEOs.
🔸 SentinelOne ( $S) Q4 EPS (-$0.22) (est. -$0.21); revs +29% y/y to $225.5M (est. $222.33M); FY26 revs guidance $1.007B-$1.012B (est. $1.03B).
🔸 UiPath ( $PATH) Q4 adj. EPS $0.26 (est. $0.20); revs +4.5% y/y to $423.6M (est. $424.9M); Q1 revs guidance $330M-$335M (est. $367.4M).
🔸 Marvell ( $MRVL) files mixed securities shelf.
🔸 Microsoft ( $MSFT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson.
🔸 Phreesia ( $PHR) Q4 EPS (-$0.11) (est. $0.11); revs $109.7M (est. $108.9M); maintains FY26 revs $472M-$482M, adj. EBITDA outlook.
🔸 Dentsply Sirona ( $XRAY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham.
🔸 Berry ( $BRY) Q4 adj. EPS $0.21 (est. $0.15), revs $187.79M (est. $173M); Q4 production +5% QoQ, +1% YoY; FY25 production 24.8-26 MBoe/d (93% oil); capex $110M-$120M.
🔸 Cummins ( $CMI), Paccar (PCAR) shares down as EPA moves to reverse EV rules; Jefferies sees downside risk if 2027 prebuy doesn’t happen.
🔸 Freight Car ( $RAIL) Q4 revs $137.7M (est. $152.02M); sees FY25 railcar deliveries 4,500-4,900, revs $530M-$595M; Q4 gross margin 15.3% (vs. 9.6% y/y).
🔸 Murphy Oil ( $MUR) acquires FPSO vessels in Gulf of Mexico; cuts annual costs by $60M, reaffirms 2025 capex.
🔸 Sunnova ( $NOVA) exploring restructuring, possible bankruptcy; holds $8.5B in debt (WSJ).
MORNING BID
Baidu ( $BIDU) Q4 Revenue: ¥34.12B (-2% y/y, Est. ¥33.32B) 📉
🔹 Ad revenue down 7% to ¥17.9B, offset by AI Cloud growth (+26% y/y).
Broadcom ( $AVGO) & Intel ( $INTC):
🔹 Broadcom held informal talks on acquiring Intel’s chip-design unit (WSJ).
🔹 No formal offer yet; deal uncertain.
Roku ( $ROKU): Files mixed securities shelf.
Alcohol Industry Struggles:
🔹 Younger consumers opt for moderation/abstinence, hurting alcohol sales.
🔹 Underperforming stocks: TAP, DEO, BF/B, BUD.
🔹 Winners: Nonalcoholic brands like Athletic Brewing & Ritual Zero Proof thrive.
🔹 Anglo American ( $NGLOY): Selling nickel unit to MMG Ltd for up to $500M, refocusing on copper & iron ore.
🔹 Delta ( $DAL): Regional jet flipped on landing in Toronto amid high winds; 18 injured.
🔹 Diamondback ( $FANG): Acquires Double Eagle units for 6.9M shares + $3B cash to expand Midland Basin.
🔹 Entergy ( $ETR): Q4 adj. EPS $0.66 (Est. $0.63); FY25 guidance: $3.75-$3.95 (Est. $3.92).
🔹 H&E ( $HEES): Accepts Herc Rentals' $5.3B bid, rejecting United Rentals' offer (FT).
🔹 Sealed Air ( $SEE): CEO Patrick Kivits steps down; Dustin Semach appointed; FY24 outlook reaffirmed.
🔹 Capital One ( $COF): Jan. net charge-offs 6.12% (vs. 5.71% y/y); delinquencies 4.61% (vs. 4.78% y/y).
🔹 Discover ( $DFS): Jan. credit card delinquency 1.80%, charge-off 2.63% (SEC filing).
🔹 JPMorgan ( $JPM): Jan. credit card delinquency 0.88%, charge-off 1.64% (SEC filing).
🔹 Janus Henderson ( $JHG): Expanding into Saudi Arabia to grow Middle East presence (Bloomberg).
🔹 KKR ( $KKR): Buying 5% more of Eni’s (E) Enilive biofuel unit for €587.5M, raising stake to 30%.
🔹 Johnson & Johnson ( $JNJ): Faces court decision today on $10B settlement over baby powder litigation; Judge Lopez to decide on Chapter 11 filing.
🔹 Medtronic ( $MDT): Q3 adj. EPS $1.39 (Est. $1.36); Q3 revs +2.5% y/y to $8.29B (Est. $8.33B); maintains full-year guidance.
🔹 Oculis ( $OCS): 5M share secondary priced at $20.00 per share.
Earnings Week Ahead
Tuesday 19th, 2024
• Ticker: $XPENG
• Company: XPeng Inc
• Market Cap: 12.9 billion USD
• EST Time: 05:30 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: -0.24 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 1.37 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: -0.77 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 5.66 billion USD
• Ticker: $LOW
• Company: Lowe's Companies Inc
• Market Cap: 153.4 billion USD
• EST Time: 06:00 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 2.82 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 19.94 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 11.82 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 82.99 billion USD
• Ticker: $J
• Company: Jacobs Engineering Group Inc
• Market Cap: 17.5 billion USD
• EST Time: 06:40 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 1.54 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 2.37 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 6.98 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 8.24 billion USD
• Ticker: $MDT
• Company: Medtronic PLC
• Market Cap: 110.3 billion USD
• EST Time: 06:45 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 1.25 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 8.27 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 5.45 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 33.62 billion USD
• Ticker: $WMT
• Company: Walmart Inc
• Market Cap: 679 billion USD
• EST Time: 07:00 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 0.53 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 167.72 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 2.45 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 678.25 billion USD
• Ticker: $KEYS
• Company: Keysight Technologies Inc
• Market Cap: 26.7 billion USD
• EST Time: 16:05 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 1.57 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 1.20 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 6.18 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 4.95 billion USD
Wednesday 20th, 2024
• Ticker: $NIO
• Company: Nio Inc
• Market Cap: 9.2 billion USD
• EST Time: 05:30 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: -0.30 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 2.69 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: -1.17 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 10.2 billion USD
• Ticker: $TGT
• Company: Target Corp
• Market Cap: 70.7 billion USD
• EST Time: 06:30 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 2.30 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 25.9 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 9.55 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 106.71 billion USD
• Ticker: $TJX
• Company: TJX Companies Inc
• Market Cap: 135.2 billion USD
• EST Time: 07:30 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 1.09 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 13.95 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 4.17 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 56.2 billion USD
• Ticker: $PANW
• Company: Palo Alto Networks Inc
• Market Cap: 129.1 billion USD
• EST Time: 16:05 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 1.48 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 2.12 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 6.27 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 9.13 billion USD
• Ticker: $NVDA
• Company: NVIDIA Corp
• Market Cap: 360.9 billion USD
• EST Time: 16:20 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 0.75 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 33.12 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 2.86 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 126.9 billion USD
• Ticker: $SQM
• Company: Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA
• Market Cap: 10.6 billion USD
• EST Time: 20:15 EST (previous day)
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 0.66 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 1.09 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: -0.56 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 4.69 billion USD
Wednesday 21th, 2024
• Ticker: $BIDU
• Company: Baidu Inc
• Market Cap: 29.5 billion USD
• EST Time: 05:00 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 2.43 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 4.6 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 10.94 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 18.6 billion USD
• Ticker: $DE
• Company: Deere & Co
• Market Cap: 108 billion USD
• EST Time: 06:30 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 3.89 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 9.3 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 24.89 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 45.3 billion USD
• Ticker: $WMG
• Company: Warner Music Group Corp
• Market Cap: 17.3 billion USD
• EST Time: 07:30 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 0.28 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 1.59 billion USD
• Ticker: $GAP
• Company: Gap Inc
• Market Cap: 8.3 billion USD
• Reporting Time: After Market Close (AMC)
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 0.58 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 3.81 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 1.87 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 14.96 billion USD
• Ticker: $ROST
• Company: Ross Stores Inc
• Market Cap: 47.2 billion USD
• EST Time: 16:00 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 1.40 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 5.17 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 6.13 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 21.36 billion USD
• Ticker: $NTAP
• Company: NetApp Inc
• Market Cap: 24.2 billion USD
• EST Time: 16:00 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 1.78 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 1.64 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 7.10 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 6.6 billion USD
• Ticker: $INTU
• Company: Intuit Inc
• Market Cap: 196.4 billion USD
• EST Time: 16:00 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 2.35 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 3.14 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 19.34 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 18.27 billion USD
• Ticker: $CPRT
• Company: Copart Inc
• Market Cap: 55.2 billion USD
• EST Time: 16:30 EST
• Expected Quarterly EPS: 0.37 USD
• Expected Quarterly Revenue: 1.09 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 1.55 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 4.56 billion USD
• Expected Full Year EPS: 1.08 USD
• Expected Full Year Revenue: 6.4 billion USD

#Downgrades - Sep 24, 2024
$BIDU: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $100
$COST: Truist Securities Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $873
$CTLT: Baird Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $63.50
$CUBI: Wedbush Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $53 (from $79)
$DOYU: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $6.60
$DRS: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $30 (from $26)
$EQR: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $82 (from $78)
$ESS: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $321 (from $307)
$FCNCA: Wedbush Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $2,150 (from $2,450)
$FHN: Wedbush Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $17 (from $20)
$INVH: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $37 (from $39)
$KVUE: RBC Capital Downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform - PT $24
$MCK: Baird Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $531 (from $603)
$MNSO: Jefferies Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $14.91
$NTR: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $50 (from $62)
$NSP: William Blair Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform
$PRGO: Jefferies Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $30 (from $50)
$REGN: Leerink Partners Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $1,077 (from $1,175)
$SBUX: Jefferies Downgrades to Underperform from Hold - PT $76 (from $80)
$TGI: BofA Securities Downgrades to Underperform from Buy - PT $12 (from $17)
$XOM: Redburn-Atlantic Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $120 (from $119)
依靠高精度地图和人为硬编码的规则做出来的自动驾驶 L2 解决方案,面临类似所有做题家都无法避免的结局:
1. 遇到新情况,没有高精度地图指引或者路上没有清晰标志的时候就可能卡壳。
2. 因为和其它做题家是同样的套路,最后大家竞相杀价,都不赚钱。