Notes
MARKET UPDATES:
CONSUMER:
🔸 $DG upgraded to Overweight (BofA).
🔸 Macau casinos ($WYNN, $LVS, $MLCO, $MGM): Gaming revenue +0.8% YoY.
🔸 $LI: March deliveries 36,674 (+26.5% YoY).
🔸 $NIO: March deliveries 15,039 (+14% MoM).
🔸 $PVH: Q4 EPS $3.27 (beat), revenue -4.8% YoY.
🔸 $TSLA: Denmark sales -65.6% YoY.
🔸 $ULTA: Upgraded to Buy, price target raised to $423.
ENERGY & INDUSTRIALS:
🔸 $AAL, $DAL, $LUV: Downgraded (Jefferies).
🔸 Oil: Brent stabilizes after Trump’s Russia comments.
🔸 $CVX: Sells East Texas gas assets ($1.2B+ value).
🔸 $EE: 7M-share secondary offering priced at $26.50.
FINANCIALS:
🔸 $LPLA: 4.7M-share secondary offering at $320.
🔸 $V: $375M escrow deposit, reducing Class B shares.
🔸 $WRB: Downgraded (BofA).
HEALTHCARE:
🔸 $JNJ: $10B talc settlement rejected by U.S. judge.
🔸 Drugmakers: Lobby Trump to phase in pharma tariffs.
TECH & MEDIA:
🔸 $LYV, $SEAT: Fall after Trump’s executive order on ticket pricing.
🔸 $PRGS: Q1 EPS $1.31 (beat), raises full-year guidance.
🔸 $SPIR: Q4 EPS loss ($2.21), weak Q1 outlook.
🔸 Upgrades:
Accenture ( $ACN): Upgraded to Outperform at Baird, PT $390
American Tower ( $AMT): Upgraded to Overweight at Wells Fargo, PT $230
Blue Owl Capital ( $OBDC): Upgraded to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
Crown Castle ( $CCI): Upgraded to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo, PT $105
DouYu ( $DOYU): ADRs upgraded to Hold at HSBC, PT $9
Flowserve ( $FLS): Upgraded to Outperform at Baird, PT $71
Generac ( $GNRC): Upgraded to Neutral at Guggenheim
Genesis Energy ( $GEL): Upgraded to Overweight at Wells Fargo, PT $18
Liberty Formula One ( $FWONA): Upgraded to Buy at Seaport Global Securities
https://t.co/eMBFE2Jwuf ( $MNDY): Upgraded to Buy at DA Davidson, PT $350
Netflix ( $NFLX): Upgraded to Buy at MoffettNathanson, PT $1,100
Norwegian Cruise ( $NCLH): Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan, PT $30
SL Green ( $SLG): Upgraded to Outperform at Evercore ISI, PT $73
Sprouts Farmers ( $SFM): Upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank, PT $190
🔸 Downgrades:
Campbell's ( $CPB): Downgraded to Equal-Weight at Consumer Edge, PT $40
Cion Investment ( $CION): Downgraded to Underweight at Wells Fargo, PT $10
EastGroup ( $EGP): Downgraded to Inline at Evercore ISI, PT $185
Finward ( $FNWD): Downgraded to Market Perform at Hovde Group
FS KKR Capital ( $FSK): Downgraded to Underweight at Wells Fargo, PT $19
Li Auto ( $LI): ADRs downgraded to Neutral at Macquarie, PT $27
RLX Tech ( $RLX): ADRs downgraded to Neutral at Citi, PT $2.50
Sutro Biopharma ( $STRO): Downgraded to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC ( $TPVG): Downgraded to Underweight at Wells Fargo
首先,我不对李老师发币这事做任何评价,自身也没购买 $LI 。但是这几天关于这事,在中推圈讨论得异常火热,有些言论实在让我这个币圈韭菜看不下去!
李老师发币后,被一群圈外人士揪着不放,球都不懂还到处指点江山,实在让人看不下去!
我就想问这些指点江山的大V们几个问题,你们知道什么是加密货币吗?你们使用过加密货币吗?你们知道每天有数万个meme币(空气币)诞生吗?
一个meme币而已,买卖自由!一个愿打,一个愿挨,为什么到了李老师这里就整得跟上市公司一样?
这几天讨论这事的,多是一些圈外人,没见几个币圈的人出来说话,因为这种事已经再平常不过了!
如果按照这位“吹哨人”的方案,那才会成为一个笑话,所有币圈的人都会认为是李老师已经把货出完,韭菜割完提裤子走人了!
如果这位“吹哨人”是李老师内部成员,此举是为了帮李老师洗地,给李老师找个全身而退的借口,那么请当我这段没说,谢谢!
做个调研:有多少人上车了 $LI 币的?上车前是币圈内人士还是币圈外人士?
投票和点赞不评论🤣🤣#Christmas #Rudolph
圈内人士•已上车
圈外人士•已上车
没有上车
据传王菊花@wangzhian8848 在3000万市值的时候重仓买入 $LI 币,目前已亏损80%,因此他这几天才那么卖力为其扩大影响力!
P•S:采访这个,采访那个,这不就是在帮 #LI 币打广告吗?果然想让韭菜做事,最好的方法就是套牢他!

李老师 @whyyoutouzhele 在和王局 @wangzhian8848 的直播中说李币 $LI 在开盘前没有任何内幕行为,欢迎任何人去监控。我这里做了个分析报告,总结有 10 个可疑地址和 4 个极度可疑地址,希望李老师可以解释一下。
1. 有多少个内幕地址?
李老师 @whyyoutouzhele 宣布发行 $LI 的推文发布时间是 2024/12/18, 23:50 (UTC + 8),下面我把所有在 2024/12/18, 23:50 之前获得 $LI 的所有地址都整理了出来,获得的方式包括 “买入” 和 “空投”,总共有 52 个地址。
我把地址用 “编号” 标记,编号 1 既第 1 个买入者,编号 52 既第 52 个买入者,以此类推。然后我也把 “公开的团队地址” 用蓝色背景标记👇
2. 内幕地址中哪些是机器人?哪些是真人?
这 52 个地址中有很多属于机器人地址,也就是任何币开盘都会自动买入的脚本机器人,我们需要把这些机器人地址排除掉。
我这里用最简单的方法,就是通过该地址的 “转账总数” 来区分,通常机器人地址的 “地址总数” 都会特别高,真人地址的 “转账总数” 会相对较低。
下面这张图我把 52 个地址的 “转账总数” 都列了出来,我自己本人的地址的 “转账总数” 在 1000+ 左右,最后我决定把 “转账总数” 大于 2000 的地址标记为 “机器人”,然后把 “转账总数” 低于 2000 的地址标记为 “真人”。
总共有 23 个机器人地址,29 个真人地址👇
3. 真人内幕地址中哪些较为可疑?
我把所有被标记为 “机器人” 的地址都删除了,只关注被标记为 “真人” 的地址,然后下面这张图我统计了所有 “真人” 地址的获利情况👇
我把我认为的 “可疑地址” 用黄色背景标记,总共有 10 个地址,他们的编号分别是 24、25、44、13、41、52、51、35、8、26。
这些 “可疑地址” 满足了以下 4 个条件:
• 在 @whyyoutouzhele 发推公布前就已经买入。
• 并非公开的团队地址(蓝色背景)。
• 从地址的 “转账总数” 来判断,并非机器人。
• 都通过 $LI 这个币获得了较高的利润。
这些地址的已套利润总和是 74,374 美金,还未套现的利润总和是 99,250 美金。
4. 极度可疑的地址?
除了 “可以地址” 之外,还有 4 个我认为是 “极度可疑地址”,他们的编号分别是:13、35、8、26。他们除了满足前面我列出的 4 个条件之外,还满足了下面 2 个额外条件:
• 在 $LI 开盘前一天才创建地址并充值。
• 到现在为止只买了 $LI 一个币种。
下面这张图我把不相关的地址删除了,只留下 “可疑地址”、“极度可疑地址” 和 “公开的团队地址”。




以李老师的流量和经营模式,本来是没有软肋的,但是发币这件事其实提供了很多能够彻底搞臭李老师的途径……
虽然精神上支持李老师,但从逻辑上不支持这种方式,因为发币代表着最终变现环节,币价则会绑架很多东西,尤其是在项目方持有超过25%筹码的情况下;
肉身在国内,讨论这个事情时点到为止即可,我支持新闻自由,但发币之后这个自媒体账号的新闻来源是否能够确保客观真实,以及是否没有主观偏向,就是个会有人做文章的问题了。
说来说去,这些事物与其背后的价值,都源于墙,从最近国内的一些风向可以看出来,墙可能不会存在太久了,也就是说,不再进行变现,墙一旦出现松动,这些自媒体的存在价值就会大打折扣…
不过如果真的有一天墙没了,我也会感谢他们!
團隊不做惡的話 100m 速通盤,洗澡洗到一半用語音跟朋友說了一下我的看法
1. 假設傳播力 = 購買力,這支幣保證上各大外媒佔滿版面
2. 任何不親中的網紅 maybe 懂王都有大機會跟這支幣互動留言吃流量
3. 新賽道有高天花板 denews
4. 李哥就我以前跑過一陣子學運圈的情況來說影響力真的很大
第一個對標物我放的是北大哥的 desci 那支
後面就是保險或女權概念幣
再來就是 pnut people 這種政治幣
做自媒體都知道,最大的流量就是正妹、可愛動物、政治話題,這支幣難得看得懂,讓我吃一波吧
之前 AI、desci 都看不懂,傳播相關的應該還是有料
HhUVkZ1qz8vfMqZDemLyxBFxrHFKVSYAk7a6227Lpump
$LI

DAILY RECAP
**BYD Co. ( $BYDDF)** reported a 67.8% y/y increase in November vehicle sales, reaching 506,804 units compared to 301,903 last year. Year-to-date sales hit 3.76M units, up from 2.68M last year.
**Gap ( $GAP)** received an upgrade to overweight from neutral by JPMorgan after a CEO and CFO meeting.
**Li Auto Inc. ( $LI)** delivered 48,740 vehicles in November 2024, a y/y increase of 18.8%, with a 2024 total of 441,995 and cumulative deliveries at 1,075,359.
**NIO Inc. ( $NIO)** saw a 28.9% y/y rise in November deliveries to 20,575 vehicles, split between its NIO and ONVO brands.
**Stellantis ( $STLA)** announced CEO Carlos Tavares' resignation, effective immediately, with a new CEO search set to conclude in 2025's first half.
**XPeng Inc. ( $XPEV)** delivered 30,895 Smart EVs in November, up 54% y/y and 29% m/m, with strong sales of the MONA M03 and P7+.
**Core Scientific Inc. ( $CORZ)** plans to issue $500M in convertible senior notes maturing in 2031.
**IREN Limited ( $IREN)** boosted its self-mining capacity by 33% to 28 EH/s with new substation energization.
**LendingClub ( $LC)** was downgraded to neutral by JPMorgan due to fintech sector concerns.
**Mara Holdings ( $MARA)** is set to offer $700M in zero-coupon convertible senior notes privately.
**Toast ( $TOST)** received a downgrade to Neutral from Goldman Sachs, citing high valuation and visibility issues.
**Upstart Holdings ( $UPST)** was downgraded to underweight by JP Morgan.
**Bausch + Lomb ( $BLCO)** was downgraded to Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley.
**Nevro ( $NVRO)** saw a downgrade to Underweight by Morgan Stanley.
**Tandem Diabetes ( $TNDM)** got an upgrade to Overweight from Morgan Stanley.
**Cloudflare ( $NET)** was upgraded to overweight by Morgan Stanley, optimistic about future growth.
**SentinelOne ( $S)** was downgraded to equal weight by Morgan Stanley, due to cybersecurity sector concerns.
**U.S. to implement new export restrictions on Monday targeting China's semiconductor sector**, affecting companies like Naura Technology Group, potentially impacting shares of $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC.
STOCKS ON THE MOVE
$ONCO, up 82.4%
$CNEY, up 57.8%
$BMY: up 4.4% premarket, Gains as FDA approves its schizophrenia drug
China ADRs extend their rally on latest stimulus push
$BABA: up 0.4% premarket
$JD: up 2.6% premarket
$PDD, up 1.33% premarket
$LI: up 0.4% premarket
$SAVA: down 11.7% premarket, after SEC charges co for misleading Alzheimer's drug trial claims
$COST: down 1.0% premarket, after Q4 results; brokerages hike PT
$DG: down 2.5% premarket, Citi downgrades Dollar General citing tough sales recovery as Walmart takes market share
$ESTA: up 27.3% premarket, on US FDA nod for Motiva breast implants
$KMX: up 0.7% premarket, Brokerages raise Carmax PT on expectations of recovery in US used car market
$WVE: up 2.2% premarket, JP Morgan resumes coverage with 'overweight'
$IONQ: up 8.1% premarket, Gains on $54.5 mln contract with US Air Force Research Lab
$BMBL: down 2.2% premarket, Down after KeyBanc downgrades to 'sector weight'
依靠高精度地图和人为硬编码的规则做出来的自动驾驶 L2 解决方案,面临类似所有做题家都无法避免的结局:
1. 遇到新情况,没有高精度地图指引或者路上没有清晰标志的时候就可能卡壳。
2. 因为和其它做题家是同样的套路,最后大家竞相杀价,都不赚钱。