Notes
I hope everybody had a nice week. Great to see the reactions we did as a lot of impulse signals triggered where we expected them to(when the least were expecting it once again)💪Lots to unpack and dive into this weekend
Subscriber Agenda
Video: Why did miners fade into the close?
Charts:
New Impulse- #BTC LTF potential paths, $MARA, $RIOT, $CLSK, $IREN, $WULF, $CIFR, $SMLR, $XRP, $LINK, $LTC, $HOOD, $QQQ, $IWM, $SPY, $MSTR, $ETH, $DOGE
Ongoing Corrective- $TSLA, $PLTR, $SOFI, $MBLY, $MU, $PYPL, $CELH, $UPST(some of these names made big moves this week but I'm not sold corrections are over)
Correction Nearing Completion?- $CGC, $SQ, $NIO, $JD, $AMC, $LMND
Subscriber Requests- $XLM, $RUNE
So it's the weekend and that means time to relax/take it easy...what that looks like over hear is 2 a days in the gym, loading up on nature's medicine(steak, eggs, fruit, veggies), and diving into the charts 💪
-Weekend Agenda for Subs
Video: $BTC Miners what I saw in $MSTR prior to its 4x move that I'm now seeing in the miners
Charts: Speculative paths+Upside/Downside targets
Early Expansion- $LCID, $MBLY, $RIVN, $LTC
Expansion- $BTC, $SQ, $PLTR, $ARKK, $NVDA, $DOGE, $XRP, $AMZN, $MSTR
Pre-Expansion- $MARA, $CLSK, $RIOT, $IREN, $BTBT, $WULF, $CIFR, $BITF, $WGMI
Bottom Formations- $BLNK, $AMC, $ARKG, $CELH
On-Going Corrective- $TSLA, $AMD, $MU, $LMND
Requests- Subscribers chart requests will be posted
STOCKS ON THE MOVE
Lamb Weston ( $LW): Shares dropped after naming Michael Smith as CEO on Jan 3, following activist investor Jana Partners' push for board changes or a sale. LW cut FY sales forecast to $6.35B-$6.45B from $6.6B-$6.8B after Q2 sales fell 8% to $1.6B; approved $250M buyback.
Lennar Corp. ( $LEN): Q4 revenue down 9.3% to $9.95B, below estimates. New orders dropped 2.7% to 16,895, backlog down 22%. Forecasts Q1 new orders at 17,500-18,000, deliveries at 17,000-17,500.
MillerKnoll Inc. ( $MLKN): Q2 EPS $0.55 vs. $0.56 est., sales up 2.2% to $970.4M. Gross margin fell to 38.8%. Guides Q3 sales $903M-$943M, EPS $0.41-$0.47.
Steelcase ( $SCS): Q3 EPS $0.30 vs. $0.22 est., sales up 2.2% to $794.9M. Q4 guidance EPS $0.20-$0.24, revenue $770M-$795M.
Stanley Black & Decker ( $SWK): Upgraded to Outperform by Mizuho, price target $110, added to top picks.
Tri-Pointe Homes ( $TPH): Announced $250M stock buyback program.
Swiss Watch Exports: November exports down 3.8% to CHF 2.41B, with U.S. as the only top market increasing by 4.7%.
Palantir Technologies ( $PLTR): Extended U.S. Army contract worth up to $618.9M to enhance data operations, continuing data and AI support since 2018.
Block ( $SQ): Upgraded to Outperform by Oppenheimer with a $115 target, citing growth in Square's Gross Payment Volume due to product and sales investments.
Raymond James ( $RJF): November client assets under administration at $1.60T (+3.6% m/m), financial assets under management at $251.7B (+4.4% m/m).
Synchrony ( $SYF): Upgraded to Overweight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley.
Mesoblast ( $MESO): Shares up after FDA approval of Ryoncil for treating GVHD in pediatric patients not responding to steroids.
Prothena ( $PRTA): Phase IIb PADOVA study by Roche on prasinezumab for early Parkinson's missed its primary endpoint after 18 months.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals ( $VRTX): Phase 2 study of suzetrigine in LSR met primary endpoint with significant pain reduction; plans for Phase 3 advancement.
Micron Technology ( $MU): Q1 adj EPS $1.79 vs. $1.76 est., revenue up 84% to $8.71B. Shares fell after hours due to Q2 forecast below expectations: revenue $7.7B-$8.1B vs. $8.99B est., gross margin 37.5%-39.5% vs. 41.3% est., EPS $1.33-$1.53 vs. $1.92 est. FY25 capex about $14B. Memory stocks STX, WDC also dropped.
Accenture ( $ACN): Q1 EPS $3.59 vs. $3.42 est., revenue up 9% to $17.69B vs. $17.15B est. Operating margin at 16.7%. Lowered FY EPS guidance to $12.43-$12.79 from $12.55-$12.91.
Keybanc: Upgraded Okta ( $OKTA) and Fortinet ( $FTNT) to Overweight, downgraded https://t.co/n5rFzz3Pbq (AI) to Underweight.
U.S. Commerce Department: Awarded SK Hynix up to $458M for an advanced chip plant and R&D facility in Indiana for AI.
#Downgrades - Nov 25, 2024
• $ABX: CIBC Downgrades to Neutral from Outperformer
• $AJG: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $313
• $CYH: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $2.50 (from $5)
• $DESP: TD Cowen Downgrades to Sell from Buy - PT $14 (from $12)
• $EXFY: JMP Securities Downgrades to Market Perform from Market Outperform
• $EXP: Loop Capital Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $315
• $FIVE: Telsey Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $95 (from $102)
• $HCA: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $320 (from $400)
• $HCA: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $320 (from $400)
• $MTB: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $230 (from $220)
• $MYNZ: H.C. Wainwright Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $NIO: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $3.90 (from $4.80)
• $NMRK: Wolfe Research Downgrades to Peerperform from Outperform
• $RRR: Mizuho Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $44 (from $57)
• $SDHC: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $36 (from $41)
• $SEM: Benchmark Downgrades to Hold from Buy
• $SQ: BMO Capital Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $100 (from $94)
• $THC: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $150 (from $205)
#Downgrades - Nov 20, 2024
• $BE: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $24.50 (from $17.20)
• $BOOM: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $8 (from $16)
• $ENR: Barclays Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $36
• $FIS: BNP Paribas Exane Downgrades to Underperform from Neutral
• $FMCC: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $4 (from $2.50)
• $FN: B.Riley Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $178 (from $194)
• $FNMA: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $3 (from $2)
• $JPM: Oppenheimer Downgrades to Perform from Outperform
• $LMND: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $42
• $MLSS: Benchmark Downgrades to Speculative Buy from Buy - PT $1.25
• $NOG: RBC Capital Downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform - PT $45 (from $43)
• $OCSL: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $15 (from $17)
• $SQ: BNP Paribas Exane Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $88
• $TOST: BNP Paribas Exane Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $37
• $WB: CCB Int'l Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $9.90