Polymarket 2月4日复盘 | 收益新ATH达成 总收益：+16,719 USDT（历史新高，恭喜自己！） 当前主力持仓： Mega 3B NO Mega 4B NO （这两笔是目前最大仓位，集中在Mega现货开盘相关的NO方向） 行情变化 & 操作逻辑 随着Mega现货时间越来越近，市场赔率持续迁移（NO方向持续走强）。 受Zama现货开盘破发影响，市场对Mega开盘预期一度偏谨慎 → 增加了NO的吸引力。 2月初我就在群里提过：当时Mega 3B NO赔率大概90左右，我就直接打了头仓。 现在3B NO已经接近97，浮盈可观，但还没到收手的时候。 剩余资金 & 下一步计划手上还有约2万+ USDT闲置资金 正在逐步挂单，目标：在Mega相关市场继续吃一些稳定高赔率的NO机会（尤其是如果赔率还能再往上走）。 一句话总结： 预测市场还是那句话——懂细分 + 耐心等迁移 = 可持续alpha。 Mega这个case目前走得还算顺，接下来就看现货开盘前最后这波情绪波动能不能再给点甜头。 链接：https://t.co/LXXd4wMrAJ

polymarket2月2日复盘 账户总盈利达到历史新高、马上突破1.6W 今天 $zama 开盘和预想的一样，1B以上NO的全部封盘。本次又顺利在zama上狂砍3000刀左右吧！ 下一个是 $mega 已经打好头仓。等待zama结束直接全部打光！ #polymarket

只想说，希望大家参加每一个打新，都是“套利”思维。 不是任何项目都会是下一个 $BIO $XPL . 大多数项目运气好可以和 @monad $MON 一样给个拉盘跑路的机会。 大多数项目运气不好可能跟 $SPACE 这类的跑路。 大多数项目会和 $ZAMA 一样盘前最早给了0.1+的机会，打新的时候也给了0.05的机会。 不知道我的 @megaeth $MEGA 锁一年的，能不能让我有一次套保的机会😭。

$MEGA @megaeth USDT Futures is now live on #Bitget, with up to 5x leverage. 🚀 Start trading now:

✅即将举行的 TGE、主要上市和产品发布活动简要列表👇👇👇 PS：第一个TROVE已经从高点跌了95%的跌幅，开了个垃圾头！

Tried the @megaeth Frontier mainnet beta this week NFT mint, fast transfers, new fee market. Bonus Campaign is real: top 5k active users can 2× allocation pre-TGE. Big claims (100k TPS, sub-10ms finality). Execution + float/vesting will matter. $MEGA

作者是个长期主义者

用营收评价公链，用市盈率评价Circle ，本质就是不懂，颇有用web 2八股文硬凑字数之感。 Be a believer.

挺有意思的一篇文章，全文没有教你炒币，也没告诉你什么能买，但是从另外一个纬度来解读了早期互联网和现在crypto可能相同的路径。 关键是告诉你天花板是你看不见无法预测的。 挺好的，意味着还能奏乐！！！

上午说的昨天最值得看的两篇长文之二，Dragonfly的 @hosseeb 写的这篇“为指数增长辩护” 先简单说说文章大意，具体细节还是建议大家自己阅读，然后说说为什么我觉得他能写出这样的文来 核心观点有三个 1. 金融犬儒主义 - 这是他在当前几个新公链上线时观察到的现象（Monad、Tempo、MegaETH），以前是要么Fomo要么冷漠，而现在则是大量的负面情绪（或者说“仇恨”） 具体来说，金融犬儒主义就是“承认部分资产有价值，但认为它们被高估（可能只值当前价值的1/5至1/10），担心华尔街会戳穿这一“泡沫”，所以Haseeb反对用传统金融指标（如P/E比率）来评价区块链，认为这忽视了指数增长的潜力。 2. 指数增长的历史 - 这部分跟上午Quote @mscryptojiayi 那篇长文有着异曲同工之妙，他拿了Web2的亚马逊以及Web3的稳定币举例，这俩一开始甚至运营了很多年之后都还在“挣扎”，Amazon成立了22年才开始实现盈利，USDT发行量第一次达到10亿的时候他个人都觉得不可思议，纽约时报甚至报道说Tether就是庞氏骗局，你再看看今天这俩公司变成啥样了 3. 用REV（Real Economic Value）或者P/E这种指标来评估ETH或者SOL有一定意义，但这本质上是把区块链局限在线性增长框架内，忽视了其指数级发展的可能性。 他认为华尔街喜欢线性，而硅谷看中指数级增长，总结成一句话就是 - 相信相信的力量！ 我来说说为什么Haseeb能写出这篇文，他一直是我最喜欢的投资人+Podcaster之一，洞见深刻，带点Drama，且非常“敢说”，这与他个人的传奇经历有关。感觉中文区很多人只是听过他的名字，但不太知道这人的牛逼 之前看过他的一篇访谈，让我留下深刻印象的三个点 1. 这家伙16岁开始玩德州，19岁就玩成了世界顶流+职业选手，21岁带着百万美金盈利退役，退役之后还捐给慈善机构不少，提倡有效利他主义 2. 不打扑克之后他又开始自学编程，学成之后进了Airbnb做软件工程师（这自学能力也忒强了点。。。） 3. 误打误撞进VC - Naval，对！就是那个喊单Zcash的纳瓦尔！之前创办过一个Web3基金Metastable Capital，18年之前进圈的老韭菜很多认应该知道。纳瓦尔当时邀请Haseeb担任Metastable的General Partner（合伙人），而在这之前Haseeb完全没干过VC。纳瓦尔说“兄弟你要不来试试？” Haseeb说“试试就试试！”，这也是他进加密投资领域的关键一步，后来才有了Dragonfly的故事 能写出这样的文，一是跟他个人比较传奇的经历有关，能让纳瓦尔主动邀请去做基金合伙人的肯定不是一般人儿。二是DragonFly早期投过MakerDAO，Compound，见证过Defi从早期到爆发的指数级增长，信仰的确跟新VC或者新韭菜，甚至包括华尔街是不太一样的 所以当前四家顶流VC，除了自身实力强，都有一个超级KOL级别的Founder/合伙人顶在前台不断发声也很关键，A16z有@pmarca, Paradigm有@gakonst, Multicoin有 @KyleSamani ,Dragonfly有 @hosseeb 所以老铁们，你们相信他说的“指数增长的力量么”🧐

1️⃣这篇文章，很多小伙伴的解读是，公链的估值被高估了。 2️⃣我自己看到的却是正能量，作者觉得现在的币圈就像“当年的电商”，还在早期，终究会迎来指数级增长。 ->我再好好想想，明天分享更多。

Got some requests to record a narration of this post (I get it, it's a long read). 👇 We didn't record a podcast episode for Thanksgiving week, so this will be going out on the @_choppingblock feed tomorrow. Thanks for all the feedback everyone. Great discussions.

Dragonfly 的知名光头合伙人 Haseeb Qureshi 写的神文非常值得一读，加密发展到现在阶段，不管指数思维，还是线性思维，都是有原因的，这些原因跟我们每一个市场参与者息息相关… 我想说的是 ：不是人们不相信了，而是被割怕了，或者说韭菜被连根拔起了… 缺乏监管的大背景之下，骗子没有任何成本的诈骗，结果就是现在这情况，没人相信了… 以前的胖协议最终会变瘦协议胖应用，未来没有真实数据支持的项目都是垃圾，不会再有人买单了，这就是所有人一起做恶的必然结果…

估值错配是这轮周期高性能公链的原罪。 不局限于现在fud 声最大Monad，也包括已经逐渐被市场遗忘的Berachain, Eclipse 等高估值天王级公链。 2年前估值12亿美元的Arbitrum 横空出世，TGE 时FDV 135亿美元，24年初达到224亿美元的峰值。投资者愿意为高性能公链技术革命的叙事买单，愿意为它的估值买单；VC 高兴、KOL 高兴、韭菜高兴、CEX 高兴、做市商高兴，几乎所有的利益相关方都高兴。 包括接下来TGE 的StarkNet 和zkSync，这个阶段几乎没有人认为高性能公链的估值是错配的。 但随着BaaS/ RaaS 一键发链工具的出现和普及，公链项目方发链的成本和技术门槛越来越低，完全颠覆了高性能公链赛道的竞争格局。crypto 加速进入百链甚至千链时代。 这轮周期高性能公链如过街老鼠、人人喊打的原因是什么？ 是市场/ VC 把一个2年有效期的技术壁垒，当成了10年有效期的品牌壁垒来定价。这就导致了严重的估值错配。 这么说有些公链项目方可能会不服气，“我们的链不一样，有核心竞争优势，有护城河：并行化执行，100000+ TPS， balabala……” 你家的公链是跟 @base 一样每天都能产生几十万美元的净利润吗？还是跟 @HyperliquidX 一样单月有千万美元的手续费收入反哺持币用户？你家公链甚至连主网都没上，我想问有个卵的护城河？ 要终结这轮高性能公链“估值原罪”的魔咒，唯一的出路只能是把整个估值体系推翻后重构。

硅谷是指数增长思维，而华尔街是线形增长思维； 因为加密货币开始被华尔街接受，所以传统估值体系从指数增长变为了线形增长… 这才有了公链估值空间大幅被压低的原因，说白了就是：市梦率变成了市盈率… 在我看来公链无非就是互联网二层，当互联网全面转向AI时，公链还在早期增长阶段… 那么这轮周期山寨走的弱，ETH和SOL不尽如人意，也就都是正常的了… 举个例子，假设你是韩立的徒弟，炼气期，当你师傅在外面和元婴大佬斗法时，你还在为怎么搞到筑基丹而发愁…

In Defense of Exponentials I used to tell founders, the reaction you are going to get to your launch is not hate, it’s indifference. By default, nobody cares about your new chain. I have to stop telling them that now. Monad just launched this week, and I’ve never seen so much hate about a blockchain that just launched. I’ve been investing into crypto professionally for 7+ years now. Before 2023, almost every chain I’ve ever seen that launched was mostly met with enthusiasm or indifference. But now, new chains are born into a chorus of hate. The amount of haters I’ve seen for projects like Monad, Tempo, MegaETH—before they even hit mainnet—is a genuinely new phenomenon. I’ve been trying to diagnose: why is this happening now, and what does it mean about the psychology of this market? The Cure is Worse than the Disease Forewarning: this is going to be the vaguest blockchain valuation post you ever read. I don’t have any fancy metrics or charts to sell you on. Instead, I’ll be arguing against the zeitgeist of Crypto Twitter, which for the last couple of years, I’ve been constantly on the opposite side of. In 2024, I felt like what I was arguing against was financial nihilism. Financial nihilism is the belief that none of these assets matter, it’s all memes at the end of the day, and everything we’ve built is inherently worthless. Thankfully, that’s no longer the vibe. We have broken out of that spell. But the zeitgeist now is what I’d call financial cynicism: OK, maybe some of this stuff has value, maybe it’s not all memes, but it’s grossly overvalued and it’s only a matter of time before Wall Street finds that out. Not that all chains are worthless. But these things are all maybe worth 1/5th-1/10th of what they’re currently trading at (have you seen these PE ratios?), and so you’d better pray like hell Wall Street doesn’t call us on our bluff, because once they do it’s all getting wiped out. You’ve got many bullish analysts now trying to conjure up optimistic L1 valuation models, inflating PE ratios, gross margins, DCFs, trying to fight against this mood. Late last year, Solana very proudly embraced REV as a metric that could finally justify their valuation. They proudly announced: we—and only we—are no longer bluffing to Wall Street! And, of course, almost immediately after REV was embraced, it fell off a cliff (though $SOL, tellingly, did better than REV did). Not that there’s anything wrong with REV. REV is a very clever metric. But the point of this post is not metric selection. Then came the launch of Hyperliquid. A DEX that had real revenue and buybacks and PE multiples. And the chorus said—look, look I told you! Finally, for the first time ever, a token that has some real profits and a proper PE multiple. (Nevermind BNB, we don’t talk about that.) Hyperliquid will eat everything because obviously Ethereum and Solana don’t make any real money, we can stop pretending to value them now. Hyperliquid, Pump, Sky, these buyback-heavy tokens are all great. But the market always had the ability to invest into exchanges. You could always buy Coinbase, or BNB, or whatever. We own $HYPE, and I agree that it’s a fantastic product. But that’s not why people were investing in ETH and SOL. The fact that L1s don't have exchange-like profit margins is not why people were buying them—if they wanted that, they could’ve bought Coinbase stock. So if I’m not critiquing blockchain financial metrics, maybe you think this post is going to be chiding the sinfulness of the token-industrial complex. Obviously, everyone has lost money on tokens in the last year, VCs included. Alts are down bad this year. And so the other half of the zeitgeist on CT is arguing about who's to blame. Who’s become greedy? Are the VCs greedy? Is Wintermute greedy? Is Binance greedy? Are the farmers greedy? Are the founders greedy? The answer, of course, is the same as it’s ever been. Everyone is greedy. Everyone. The VCs, Wintermute, the farmers, Binance, the KOLs, they're all greedy, and you are greedy too. But it doesn't matter. Because no functioning market has ever required anyone to act against their self-interest. If we're right about crypto, we can all be greedy and the investments will still work out. Trying to analyze a market that has gone down by figuring out “who’s greedy” is going to be about as fruitful as commissioning witch trials. I guarantee you, nobody just started being greedy in 2025. So this, too, is not what I’m going to be writing about. Many people want me to write a post about why $MON should be valued at X or $MEGA at Y. I’m not interested in writing this post, or advocating that you buy anything in particular. In fact, you probably shouldn’t buy any of them if you don’t already believe in them. Will any new challenger chain win? Who knows. But if it has a material chance of winning, it's going to be priced on that basis. If Ethereum is worth $300B or Solana is worth $80B, a project that has a 1-5% chance of becoming the next Ethereum or Solana will be priced according to those probabilities. Somehow CT is scandalized by this, but it’s no different than Biotech. A drug that has less than a 10% chance of curing Alzheimer's is priced by the market as worth billions of dollars, even if 90% chance it won’t pass stage 3 trials and will go to 0. That's how the math works—and turns out, markets are pretty good at doing math. Binary outcomes are priced on probabilities, not on run rates or moral turpitude. It’s the “shut up and calculate” school of valuation. I really don’t think that’s an interesting question to write about. “5% chance to win? No way, that’s clearly a 10% chance!” Markets, not articles, are the best way to assess that for any individual token. So here’s what I am going to write about: CT doesn't seem to believe anymore that chains are valuable. I don’t think this is because they don’t believe new chains can win market share. We just saw Solana dominate market share after emerging from the ashes less than 2 years ago. It’s not easy, but of course it’s possible. It’s more that people have come to believe that even if a new chain wins, there’s no prize worth winning. If $ETH is just a meme, if it’ll never generate real revenue, then even if you win, you won’t be worth $300B. The contest is not worth winning, because these valuations are all bunk and it’ll all come crashing down before you go to claim your prize. Being optimistic about chain valuations has become passé. Not that nobody is optimistic—obviously there must be optimists out there. For every seller there’s a buyer, and as much as CT cool kids love to drag L1s, people are comfortable buying SOL at $140, ETH at $3000. But there’s a perception now that all the smartest people are over buying smart contract chains. Smart people know the jig is up. If not now, then soon. The only people buying here are suckers—Uber drivers, Tom Lee, and KOLs who say stuff like “trillions.” And maybe the US Treasury. But not the smart money. This is bullshit. I don’t believe it, and you shouldn’t either. So I felt like I had to write a smart person’s manifesto on why general purpose chains are valuable. This post is not about Monad or MegaETH. It’s really in defense of ETH and SOL. Because if you believe ETH and SOL are valuable, the rest is straight downstream. Defending ETH and SOL valuations is generally not my job as a VC, but fuck it, if nobody else is willing to do it, then I’ll write it. Feeling the Exponential My partner Bo experienced the Chinese Internet boom first-hand as a VC. I’ve heard how “crypto is like the Internet” so many times now that it doesn’t even register for me anymore. But when I hear his stories, it always reminds me how costly it is to be wrong about these things. A story he often tells is about when all the early e-commerce VCs (it was a small group back then) got together for coffee in the early 2000s. They debated: how big is the market for e-commerce going to be? Is it going to be mostly electronics (maybe only techies will use PCs)? Could it ever work for women (perhaps they’re too tactile)? What about food (maybe impossible to manage perishables)? These were deeply important questions for early VCs to decide what to invest in and what prices to pay. The answer, of course, was that literally every single one of them was devastatingly wrong. E-commerce would sell everything, and the target audience was the whole fucking world. But nobody at the time actually believed it. And even if they did, it would be too absurd to say out loud. You just had to wait long enough for the exponential to show you. Even among the believers, very few thought e-commerce would become as big as it became. And those few who did, almost all of them became billionaires from just not selling. Every other VC—as Bo tells me, since he was one of them—sold too early. It has become passé in crypto to believe in the exponential. I believe in the crypto exponential. Because I’ve lived it. When I started in crypto, nobody used this stuff. It was tiny and broken and awful. TVL on-chain was in the millions. We invested into the first generation of DeFi, MakerDAO, Compound, 1inch, back when they were science projects. I remember playing around on EtherDelta back when DEXes traded single digit millions a day, and that was considered to be a huge success. It was complete dogshit. Now we routinely trade in the tens of billions on-chain every day. I remember believing it was crazy that Tether hit a billion dollars in issuance and was being written up in the NYT as a ponzi scheme on the brink of shutdown. Now stablecoins are over $300B and regulated by the Federal Reserve. I believe in the exponential because I’ve lived it. I’ve seen it over and over again. But you might respond—well, stablecoin growth might be exponential, maybe DeFi volumes are exponential, but they don’t accrue to ETH or SOL. The value doesn’t get captured by the chains. To which I answer: you still don’t believe in the exponential. Because the exponential’s answer is always the same: it doesn’t matter. This stuff is going to be so much bigger than it is today. And when it’s absolutely enormous, you’ll make it up on scale. Study this chart. This is Amazon’s P&L from 1995 to 2019. That’s 24 years. Red is revenue, gray is profit. You see that little blip on the end where the gray line goes up? That’s when, 22 years in, Amazon started actually making a profit. Amazon was 22 years old when this little gray line of net income first peeled off of 0. Every single year before then, there were op eds and critics and short sellers claiming that Amazon was a ponzi scheme that would never make any money. Ethereum just turned 10 years old. This is what the first 10 years of Amazon stock looked like: 10 years of chop. All along the way, Amazon was beset with doubters and non-believers. Is e-commerce a VC-subsidized charity? They’re selling underpriced cheap low-quality knick-knacks to bargain hunters, who cares? How are they ever going to make actual money, like Walmart or GE? If you were arguing about Amazon’s P/E ratio, you were in the wrong regime. That’s the regime of linear growth. But e-commerce was not a linear trend, and so every single person for 22 years arguing about P/E ratios was devastatingly wrong. No matter what you paid, no matter when you bought, you were not bullish enough. Because that’s what exponentials do. When it comes to truly exponential technologies, no matter how big you think it’s going to get, it just keeps getting even bigger. This is the thing that Silicon Valley has always understood better than Wall Street. Silicon Valley was raised on exponentials, while Wall Street was raised on linearity. And over the last few years, crypto’s center of gravity has migrated from Silicon Valley to Wall Street. You can feel it. Granted, crypto growth doesn’t look as smooth as e-commerce’s growth. It’s burstier, it goes in fits and starts. This is because crypto, being about money, is deeply tied to macro forces, and it also has more violent regulatory push and pull than e-commerce. Crypto strikes at the heart of the state—money—and so it’s more unnerving to governments than e-commerce ever was. But the exponential is no less inevitable. It's a crude argument. But if crypto is exponential, then the crude argument is correct. Zoom out. Financial assets want to be free. They want to be open. They want to be interconnected. Crypto turns financial assets into file formats, makes it as easy to send a dollar or a stock as to send a PDF. Crypto makes it possible for everything to talk to everything. It makes it all 24/7, global, interconnected, and open. That will win. Open always wins. If there’s no other lesson I've learned from the Internet, it’s that. Incumbents will fight against it, governments will huff and puff, but eventually they will give up against the adoption, the generativeness, the sheer efficiency that this technology enables. It’s what the Internet did to every other industry. Blockchains are how that same trend will gobble up all of finance and money. Yes—with enough time—all of it. An old saying goes: people overestimate what can happen in two years, but they underestimate what can happen in ten. If you believe in the exponential, if you zoom out enough, then it’s all still cheap. And it should humble you that every day, the holders outlast the sellers and naysayers. Big capital has a longer time horizon than CT swing traders might lead you to believe. Big capital has been trained through history not to fade big technologies. You know, the big gushy story that originally got you to buy $ETH or $SOL? Big capital believes that story and hasn't stopped. So what exactly am I arguing? I am arguing that applying P/E ratios to smart contract chains (the “revenue meta,” as it’s now called), is giving up on the exponential. It means you have consigned this industry to the regime of linear growth. It means you believe 30 million DAUs on-chain and <1% of M2 is it. Crypto is just one of the things in the world. A sideshow. It did not win. It was not inevitable. More than anything, I’m arguing to be a believer. Not just a believer, but a long-term believer. I’m arguing that this exponential will be bigger than anything else you’ve been a part of in your life. That this is your e-commerce. That you will look back when you’re old and tell your kids—I was there when it all happened. Not everyone believed it was possible, that whole societies could change, that all of money and finance would be transformed by programs running on decentralized computers that we collectively owned. But it actually happened. It changed the world. And you were a part of it. Disclosure: These are my own views. Dragonfly is an investor in $MON, $MEGA, $ETH, $SOL, $HYPE, $SKY among many other tokens. Dragonfly believes in the exponential. This is not investment advice, but is advice of another kind.

megaeth很神奇 正好在btc跌到位的时候释放一波流动性出来

Bunch of KOLs have OTC sold me parts of their $MEGA ETH allocation… lol Should I expose ?? So they lose entire allocs ? Would be funny

下午刚提了嘴 @monad 打新事情，晚上就来了。本期拿出了7.5%的额度用来打新，仅3%用于空投，大大低于与其。最恐怖的地方空投最低一千多，最高一千多万，万倍差距。 目前盘前合约0.05左右，打新价格0.025你会去参与下嘛？ 现在很多项目都开始打新，比如接下来的 @infinex 、 @zama …

25年Q4还剩50天左右，留给我们的时间不多了。一直有群友感觉没事做，不知道做什么。整理了份清单，看看接下来还有哪些项目大概率在Q4 Tge的。 1、@useTria 目前在LEGION打新， 获得 @Aptos 、Polygon等投资，总融资12M。属于支付基础设施 2、@ArchNtwrk 获得 Pantera、Multicoin、OKX等顶级VC 支持，总融资20M 。基础设施，大饼上的L2 ，大饼生态最后的希望。 3、 @AlloraNetwork $ALLORA 融资$32.5M。 11.11TGE AI基础设施。 4、 @TheoriqAI $THQ 融资 $12.2M 在Kaito上打新的终于有点盼头。AI代理项目 5、 @idOS_network $IDOS 获得 @arbitrum 、 @NEARProtocol 、Circle等 $4.5M 融资。跨链身份验证协议，早鸟用户空投。 6、 @wardenprotocol $WARD 据说获得 $50M 详情暂未披露。一条可验证的 AI 原生L1 链 7、 @rainbowdotme $RNBW 融资$19.5M 钱包基础设施 8、 @teaprotocol $TEA YZi Labs 领投，融资1690万。去中心化数据协议 9、 @monad $MON 融资$244M。高性能Layer 1链，空投已可查询，据说即将开始打新。 10、 @megaeth $MEGA 融资$30M 。以太坊L2。 11、 @irys_xyz $IRYS 融资$18.7M.数据存储基础设施。 12、 @cysic_xyz $CYSIC 融资$18M。ZK基础设施。 13、 @almanak $ALM 融资8.45M。DeFi协议 14、 @Solstice $SOLSTICE 融资未披露 Solana上DeFi 优化协议。 15、 @billions_ntwk $BILLIONS Cb 、 @0xPolygon 等融资 $30M。数字身份验证平台 16、 @zama $ZAMA Pantera Multicoin 领投，总融资$130M 。AI+隐私+FHE 赛道 #ZamaCreatorProgram 17、 @aztecnetwork $AZTEC 融资 $119M 隐私Layer 2 18、 @SentientAGI $SEN 融资$85M。AI项目 19、 @opensea $SEA 融资$422M。NFT市场 20、 @AbstractChain $ABS 融资1.1M ，L2消费链 21、@brevis_zk YZi Labs 领投 总融资7.5M。零知识 全链数据证明平台 22、@build_on_bob $BOB 融资21.1万 。大饼上的L2 23、@infinex 传言即将打新，预计Tge也快了。融资65.3M。多种链上协议。 24、 @fogo 融资13.5M。SVM L1 25 @openmind_agi 融资20M，机器人赛道+Ai 项目 26、 @gaib_ai 融资5M，Ai+RWA 赛道 27、 @base $BASE 这个可能在Q4,26年Q1可能性更大 最后剩余的Perp赛道、预测赛道、质押赛道可以去看看表格，这里不一一列出 https://t.co/Oq9TmaADy5

友情提醒：MegaETH @megaeth 的代币 $MEGA 在 @HyperliquidX 盘前已经拉到了 $0.5附近。 对标公募的成本 $0.1 大约有4X的利润，分配时间是11月19日至21日。 是不是，又想套保了？ 达咩，达咩达咩！🤪

你们中了吗？ 也就是个安慰奖啊啊啊啊啊～

MegaETH @megaeth 可以查额度了， 杰尼君塞了 $186K,就给了 $2,650的额度，目前 $MEGA 在 @HyperliquidX 盘前 $0.4。 3X利润，不到一万美元的利润, 就当吃了个利息吧。 大家都有多少额度？

MegaETH 决定谁能打新谁不能的标准已经出了 能看得出来确实走心了，也尽可能地在适量偏心的情况下兼顾了公平。 毕竟超募倍数太多了，这个额度很难分，自问是我也很难做到更好（除了锁仓优势过大这个我不喜欢之外）

恭喜 @dov_wo megaeth唯一中文核心圈 晚安，玛卡巴卡

不知从什么时候开始，各大 CEX 开始流行代币先上合约，再等TGE上现货。 项目方也很配合，提前拉盘造势，营造出 X倍收益 的预期，从而营销ICO，并催生了无数提前做空、套保锁定利润的玩家。 交易所赚手续费，项目方募到资金，用户提前套保锁定利润，似乎是三赢的局面。 可如今流动性枯竭，二级接盘意愿大减，狗庄则调转枪口，开始狙击套利者。 $MMT 的控盘暴空可能只是开始。 类似的天王级别项目还有 @monad 的 $MON 、@megaeth 的 $MEGA 、@zkPass 的 $ZKP ，它们的合约部分早已上线，代币缺迟迟未TGE, $MMT 的剧本可能随时重演。 币圈从不缺聪明人，但小心了各位，别玩了一辈子鹰，最后被鹰啄了眼睛。

코인접고 주식하러갔던 layergg 컴백 ㄷㄷ

$MEGA 公售超募27.8倍， $MMT 超募18倍， $FIGHT 超募122倍……….市场青睐存钱局，谁来接盘?? 大家都在抢稳健收益的存钱局， 可问题是——收益从哪来？ 当所有人都想躺赚时，总有人得负责让利。

我认为 MegaETH *未必是理财局*，主要因为这个锁仓的玩法。 MegaETH 说一下我自己的策略，卡着最后几个小时，我打了大概 9 wU，正好是它上限的一半，没选锁仓。 一方面，我认为未来的一整年时间，大概率有某个时刻 $Mega 的 FDV 会低于 10 亿。 并非是我不看好，而是 Crypto 的客观规律就是这样——Solana 上一轮最高 260 最低还到过 10 呢，任何好项目、坏项目、顶级项目、普通项目，谁没跌过 90%？ 既然判断，大概率未来 1 年会有不锁仓的 10 亿美金 FDV 以下的筹码，你再喜欢 Mega 现在也不宜锁，宁愿错过。 另一方面，考虑到这个筹码结构，我没法套保，让它变成真·理财局。 因为筹码结构全是锁仓额度、又回购早期投资人，又融了恐怖的 50M 资金，我特别担心它开盘直接就拉上去了。 你打 18w 美金额度，现在二级价值，按照 1x 杠杆套保，稀里糊涂就 1M 了，到时候占用套保资金过多，资金利用率太低了。 最后，我为什么没打满呢？我这种不锁仓的，肯定非常不受待见，拉满的话肯定不给我了。 从常理来说，一般就是大户给一半，散户全给。 希望 MegaETH 看在我不贪心只要 5 位数的额度的前提下，给我多少批一点😂

好了，杰尼君的 $186,282 已经拉满。 $MEGA ICO 开盘 16 分钟，价格迅速拉到 $0.099，总募资突破 1.1 亿美元，超募 2.2 倍。 与此同时，@HyperliquidX 上的盘前价已在 $0.48 附近，大约是 ICO 价的 5 倍。 考虑到后续解锁带来的抛压，2X左右利润就满足了。

🌐 10月27日-11月02日｜本周大事件 📅 10月27日｜星期一 🔵 MegaETH 启动 $MEGA 代币公售 🔵 X Layer 主网进行技术升级 🔵 香港首个 Solana 交易所交易基金「华夏 Solana ETF」拟在港交所挂牌 📅 10月28日｜星期二 🔵 $GRASS 将解锁 1.81 亿枚代币，约 8027万美元，占流通量 72.40% 🔵 $JUP 将解锁 5347 万枚代币，约 2329万美元，占流通量 1.72% 🔵 币安下架 GMTUSD 和 DOGSUSD 币本位永续合约 📅 10月30日｜星期四 🔴 美联储 FOMC 公布利率决议 🔴 美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会 🔴 美国公布当周初请失业金人数 🔵 Coinbase 发布 Q3 财报 🔵 Strategy 公布 2025 Q3 财报 📅 10月31日｜星期五 🔴 美国公布 9 月核心 PCE 物价指数年率 📅 11月01日｜星期六 🔵 $SUI 将解锁 4396 万枚代币，约 1.17 亿美元，占流通量 1.21% 🔵 $EIGEN 将解锁 3682 万枚代币，约 4455 万美元，占流通量 12.10% 📅 11月02日｜星期日 🔵 $OMNI 将解锁 799 万枚代币，约 2397万美元，占流通量 30.30% 🔵 $ENA 将解锁 4063 万枚代币，约 2073万美元，占流通量 0.60%

明晚九点开始打钱咯

最近参加 @megaeth_labs legion这些打新，然后领monad这些空投，越来越觉得老钱包的复利价值之大不可估量，可能是我们的web3退休金保障 5年以上的defi老钱包越来越值钱，多攒点defi老钱包

Been a while since I showed up here, but this time something really caught my eye — everyone keeps talking about “community”, but barely anyone gets what it actually means @megaeth_labs gonna remind u $MEGA aint some farm-bait airdrop Its a network where investors, users and builders move as one The public sale is a shot to join the ones who actually push crypto forward, not just watch from the sidelines Networks arent built by drops Theyre built by conviction

. @megaeth_labs MegaETH 27号公售关键信息整理 一句话省流：注册并完成 KYC → 出价（≥$2,650） → 可选 1 年锁仓享折扣 或不锁→ 等待拍卖结束与清算分配退回资金 代币总量：10,000,000,000 枚 $MEGA 公开发售份额：500,000,000 枚（占总量 5%） 网络：Ethereum 主网 支付方式：USDT 发售形式：有封顶价的英式拍卖（English Auction） 起拍价：$0.0001（FDV = $1M） 封顶价：$0.0999（FDV = $999M） 最小加价单位：$0.0001 个人出价区间：$2,650 ～ $186,282 做好准备直接以封顶价购买，锁仓一年不仅有10%折扣超额认购的时候可能获得更高配额 除此以外，优先分配给： 链上行为：是否为早期以太坊活跃用户、合约交互记录； 社交身份：是否绑定 Twitter / Discord / GitHub； 文化参与：是否持有 Fluffle NFT、制作过社区内容、参与过生态文化 可以理解为一场增加了英式拍卖规则的legion打新 MegaETH 打新常见问答（FAQ） 感谢@naersxd的整理！ https://t.co/ZOuVY6I5j8 Q1：我还是不太明白什么是英式拍卖？ 英式拍卖（English Auction）指参与者在一定价格区间内自主出价，价格随着出价递增。 在 MegaETH 拍卖中： 出价范围为 $0.0001（对应 $1M FDV）至 $0.0999（对应 $999M FDV）； 每次加价最小单位（tick size）为 $0.0001； 随着参与者不断出价，整体 FDV 会逐步上升，直至拍卖结束确定最终清算价。 Q2：最初的 5000 个 Fluffle NFT 拥有者能获得多少分配？ 首批 Fluffle 持有者将获得 总供应量 2.5% 的 $MEGA 代币分配，这一比例与此前公布的一致。 Q3：如果我没有获得配额，会退钱吗？ 会。 若在销售结束后未获得任何分配，你将在分配阶段完成后自动收到 全额 USDT 退款。 退款从 11 月 5 日起 开始处理。 若获得分配（中签者），代币将在 11 月 21 日起（最终分配阶段） 开始发放。 Q4：关于白皮书里提到的 TGE、代币释放等传言是真的吗？ 白皮书主要是为了符合 MiCA 合规要求，本质上是免责声明文件。 正如 @0xHeisenBruh 所说，TGE 及代币释放等具体细节将由 MegaETH 官方公告发布，而非以白皮书内容为准。 目前尚无确切时间，请关注后续官方更新。 Q5：测试网（Testnet）的活动是否计入贡献或分配？ 一般情况下，测试网活动不计入贡献或分配。 只有部分特定 NFT 系列的活动会被纳入贡献统计，之前已有说明。 Q6：NFT 如何计入贡献？ NFT 的贡献按类型计算，而非数量。 也就是说： 持有多个相同 NFT 不会提高贡献权重。 例如：20 个相同 NFT = 1 个 NFT（贡献度相同）。 Q7：在 Kaito 排行榜上是否能保证获得分配？ 不能保证。 上榜可以帮助提高可见度，但不是必要条件，也不是分配保证。 许多未上榜的用户也会被纳入分配，而部分上榜者可能不会获得额度。 Q8：与 MegaETH 相关 NFT 的快照是否已经完成？ 是的，快照已经完成。 Q9：快照具体是什么时候进行的？ 官方未公布确切时间，但确认已在主网公开发售（Sonar 轮）之前完成。 Q10：主网启动后新加入的用户还能获得 $MEGA 吗？ 如果你未曾： 持有 Fluffle NFT； 参与 Echo 轮销售； 注册 Sonar 公募； 则你将**无法参与初始奖励活动（Rewards Campaign）**中的额外 $MEGA 分配。 Q11：是否需要抢时间参与？ 不需要。 拍卖总时长为 3 天（72 小时），无论哪一天参与结果都相同。 Q12：如果我在 Sonar 阶段 KYC 无法通过怎么办？ 可联系以下官方协助账号： @Moonshot211 @hotpot_dao @0xHeisenbruh @0xAlexjultz

MEGA @megaeth_labs 核心理念是将代币发行与实际数据和里程碑挂钩，而不是固定时间表，从而实现可持续的生态增长。 奖励分配细节供应占比： 总供应量的 50% 以上 预留用于 KPI 奖励； 资格与规则：仅限 $MEGA 质押者（stakers）参与; 质押时长影响奖励：最低 10 天，最高 30 天（越长奖励越多）； 未归属代币可质押，但需共享锁定期；

$MEGA @megaeth_labs TGE来年の1月予定だったのか🙄 >>(6) トークン受領までの長期化リスク：トークン配布が2026年1月のTGE時となるため、参加者は約3ヶ月間トークンにアクセスできません。 当選した場合の拘束期間も資金拘束が11/19までと長め。 Coincheck

二月份时候， @megaeth_labs 因为NFT发行出了点问题引起全网炮轰，当时 @hotpot_dao 饼哥被喷的体无完肤，megaETH也被说成屎。 昨天 $Mega 上了盘前，60亿的FDV直接震的所有群炸锅，之前没有搞Sonar账户的连夜动员全家齐上阵，当时骂的最凶的一帮人现在都变成了夸夸党。 曾经被Fud到死的NFT突然又变成了香馍馍，有NFT的人被羡慕的流口水。 就，挺有意思的 果然大阳线改变信仰 饼哥在FUD高潮期两天不睡觉还能保持自黑的心态挺值得学习的，什么叫人逢大事要有静气？这就是。 Congrats

杰尼获悉： $MEGA @megaeth_labs 已正式登陆 @HyperliquidX 盘前交易，当前价格 $0.4，总量 100 亿枚，FDV 达 $40 亿。 而本次 $MEGA ICO采用英式拍卖，最高限价 $0.0999美元(9.99 亿美元 FDV)，上限额度 $186,282 ，对比盘前价差不多 4 倍收益， 从 $YB 到 $LMTS ，最近几次大热的ICO，收益基本上都维持在3~6倍左右，不要犹豫，拉满就行了！

#空投 #Airdrop #空投教程 #yaps @KaitoAI 2025年排名前 5 的测试网！ 1/ @0G_labs | $OG 2/ @megaeth_labs | $MEGA 3/ @dawninternet | $DAWN 4/ @recallnet | $RECALL 5/ @TakerProtocol | $TAKER 💰 潜在收益：约20000U 🔥 代币生成事件（TGE）：第三季度末 💸 成本：完全免费 空投教程⬇️⬇️⬇️