下午跟几个哥们聊了一个很有趣的话题：如果现在你只能选一只股票，并且要持有未来10年，你会选哪个？我仔细想了一下： 苹果 $AAPL 未来10年真不好说，或者说我看不懂，自乔布斯去世至今14年，库克这些年CEO做的很成功，不瞎折腾其实很难，但是未来10年我是真看不懂，头盔貌似已经失败了？反正我买的那已经几个月没碰过了。 英伟达 $NVDA 潜在的竞争对手还是很多的， 护城河貌似撑不了10年。 特斯拉 $TSLA 马斯克是最大的不确定性，我赌了他过去10年，但是未来10年不敢再赌了，感觉现在的他有点跑偏。 台积电 $TSM 目前确实是独一无二的存在，但是地缘政治的不确定性也不敢拿10年不动。 最后讨论半天，我觉得我敢持有未来10年而且睡得着觉的是爱马仕 $HESAY 因为10年后科技发展成什么样，AI如何进步我们现在没法估计，但是有一点不变的是女人永远喜欢Birkin和Kelly 那么，如果换你会选哪个公司敢持有10年？

SECTOR NEWS CONSUMER 🔸 $STZ: Q4 EPS $2.63 (est. $2.29); sales +1.2% to $2.16B (est. $2.13B). Beer sales in line, wine/spirits beat. Selling mainstream wine brands to The Wine Group. FY28 EPS growth seen low to mid-single digits. New $4B buyback plan. 🔸 $GM: Downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS; target cut to $51 from $64 due to tariff impact. 🔸 $KMX: Q4 EPS $0.58 (est. $0.65); retail used sales +6.2%, comps +5.1%, wholesale units +3.1%. Revenue $6.0B (est. $5.963B). 🔸 $PSMT: Q2 EPS $1.45 (est. $1.40); sales $1.335B (est. $1.359B); comps +6.7%. 🔸 $BKE: March comps +3.7%, net sales +4.5% to $109.1M. ENERGY, INDUSTRIALS & MATERIALS 🔸 $X: Shares fell after Trump opposed Nippon Steel’s takeover. 🔸 $VALE: Upgraded to Buy at Bank of America. FINANCIALS 🔸 $AB: AUM fell to $784B in March from $805B in Feb. 🔸 $CBOE: Downgraded to Neutral at Bank of America. 🔸 $LAZ: March AUM $227.4B; net outflows $3.1B, market loss $5.4B. 🔸 $VCTR: Total client assets $171.4B as of March. HEALTHCARE 🔸 $IDYA: Started Phase 1/2 expansion trial combining IDE397 with Gilead’s Trodelvy. 🔸 $KROS: Shares rise after adopting poison pill; exploring strategic options, including sale. TECHNOLOGY, MEDIA & TELECOM 🔸 $AMZN: 2024 revenue +11% to $638B; AWS +19% to $108B; operating income +86% to $68.6B. 🔸 $ASYS: Cuts Q2 revenue forecast to $15M–$16M (from $21M–$23M) due to customer dispute. 🔸 $TSM: Q1 sales +42% to $25.6B, in line with guidance despite earthquake impact.

While the market was collapsing, someone was front-loading Intel $INTC calls before $TSM news today. At 12pm EST someone bought $100k in $INTC $23.5 calls expiring Apr 17. As soon as news came out, stock rallied, they sold full position for $500k. $INTC was red, lost most of tech, and completely devoid of bids until this trader conveniently came. In the first image on the top right screen you can actually see the bump clearly, where the whale trade came in, and others started following shortly after. Most exited for gains after the bump. Very disgusting to see on a day where most people were worrying about their portfolios and retirement. Very cool, very legal.

MORNING BID 🔸 QXO ( $QXO) is in talks to buy Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN) for $11B ($124.35/share in cash). 🔸 Uber ( $UBER) & Lyft ( $LYFT) dominate North American ride-hailing, but Bolt aims to challenge them, per The Information. 🔸 Xpeng ( $XPEV) plans to mass-produce its modular flying car by 2026, said Chairman He Xiaopeng. 🔸 Yum China ( $YUM) appointed Adrian Ding as CFO, removing his interim title after a search following Andy Yeung’s resignation. 🔸 Franco-Nevada ( $FNV) Q4 adj. EPS $0.95 (est. $0.89), revenue $321M (+6% y/y, est. $304.44M); expects 2025 revenue to rise 25%+ with gold at $2,800/oz. Upgrades: 🔸 Grainger ( $GWW), Fastenal (FAST) → Outperform (from Market Perform) at William Blair. 🔸 Knight-Swift ( $KNX) → Neutral (from Sell) at Citigroup. Downgrade: 🔸 Sherwin-Williams ( $SHW) → Hold (from Buy) at Jefferies. 🔸 Beam Therapeutics ( $BEAM) prices 16.2M shares at $28.48 each. 🔸 DexCom ( $DXCM) gets FDA warning after inspections but sees no material impact on FY25 revenue. 🔸 Nordisk ( $NVO) reports REDEFINE 2 trial met its primary endpoint, showing significant weight loss with CagriSema in 1,206 patients over 68 weeks. 🔸 Trevi ( $TRVI) Phase 2a RIVER trial: Haduvio reduced 24-hour cough frequency by 67% (57% placebo-adjusted, p<0.0001). 🔸 Cognizant ( $CTSH) shares rose as Mantle Ridge built a $1B+ stake, seeing them as undervalued (WSJ). Upgrades: 🔸 DocuSign ( $DOCU) → Neutral (from Underweight) at JPMorgan. Deals: 🔸 NVent ( $NVT) to buy Avail’s electrical products for $975M, expects EPS boost in year one. 🔸 Perion ( $PERI) expands buyback program to $125M. 🔸 Taiwan Semi ( $TSM) Feb revenue NT$260.01B (+43% y/y, -11% m/m); Jan-Feb total NT$553.30B (+39% y/y).

$INTC Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM is considering operating Intel $INTC factories after Trump's request yesterday. Calls pouring in. @unusual_whales

BREAKING: Steven Cohen (Point72) updated their portfolio. As soon as his filing comes in, we update the full positions and portfolios on Unusual Whales. Get it live and first! Cohen increased $MSFT, $NVDA, $TSM, $UBER, $MSTR (call options!!), new in $SPHR.

Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM is considering operating Intel $INTC factories after Trump's request yesterday.

OpenAI: Plans to reduce reliance on NVIDIA, $NVDA, by developing its first in-house AI chip, with design finalization in the next few months. Chips will be manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor, $TSM, per Bloomberg.

Here are the most bullish and bearish options in the market today: $PDD $REAL $META $NKE $NVDA $TSM $MSFT $ON $BBAI Use our options screener to find your next plays here:

MORNING BID 🔸 OpenAI: Plans to reduce reliance on NVIDIA ( $NVDA) by developing its first in-house AI chip, with design finalization in the next few months. Chips will be manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM) 🔸 ChipMOS Technologies ( $IMOS): Expects 6.3% revenue growth for 2024, despite a 5.4% YoY decline in Dec 2024 and 5.7% YoY decline in Q4 2024. Plans to buy back shares up to T$17.39B. 🔸 Mobileye ( $MBLY): Upgraded to Neutral by Bank of America, citing limited downside risk and bottoming sentiment. 🔸 Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM): Q1 revenue expected at the lower end of guidance due to a $161M (NT$5.3B, net of insurance) impact from a late January earthquake in southern Taiwan. 🔸 Edgewell Personal Care ( $EPC): Q1 adj. EPS $0.07 (est. $0.12); Q1 revs $478.4M (est. $480.16M). FY25 outlook: adj. EPS at lower end of $3.15-$3.35 (est. $3.18), adj. EBITDA at lower end of $356M-$368M, capex 2.5%-3% of revenue. 🔸 Rivian ( $RIVN): Now selling delivery vans to fleets of all sizes in the US, over a year after ending exclusivity with Amazon ( $AMZN). 🔸 Sun Country Airlines ( $SNCY): Announces secondary offering of 6.3M shares and $10M share repurchase from underwriters. 🔸 Illumina ( $ILMN): Downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight by Barclays. 🔸 Merck ( $MRK): Downgraded to Hold from Buy by TD Cowen, price target cut to $100 from $121. 🔸 Pliant Therapeutics ( $PLRX): Shares fall as it pauses enrollment and dosing in the ongoing Beacon-IPF Phase 2b trial of bexotegrast for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. 🔸 BP Plc ( $BP): Shares rise after Elliott Management takes a stake, expected to push for strategy and board changes. 🔸 ConocoPhillips ( $COP): Downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy by Raymond James. 🔸 Spirit AeroSystems ( $SPR): Q4 2024 net revenues $1.66B (down from $1.81B YoY, above est. $1.53B); reported $401M in net forward loss charges. 🔸 US Metals Stocks: Shares of Cleveland Cliffs ( $CLF), Nucor ( $NUE), Alcoa ( $AA), and others rise after Trump announces 25% steel and aluminum tariffs in latest trade escalation.

盘前有点猛

最近好多台積電 $TSM 的壞消息，是不是可以買？

Who doesn't love an ascending triangle at all-time highs? 🤤 $TSM

While everyone is focused on $NVDA... $TSM looks ready to lead the group. 🤷

We're thrilled to announce that the @TusimaNetwork Kickstarter has concluded and $TSM will be listed on #MEXC! 🔹Deposit: Opened 🔹TSM/USDT Trading in the Innovation Zone: 2024-12-19 10:00 (UTC) Details:

.@TusimaNetwork, a global consumer payment network that seamlessly connects real-world spending scenarios with digital currencies, is coming to #MEXCKickstarter 🚀 🗳Vote with $MX to share massive airdrops 📈 $TSM/USDT Trading: 2024-12-19 10:00 (UTC) Details: https://t.co/WbQk8Z0zzq

MORNING RECAP ❖ Alaska Airlines ( $ALK) to launch direct flights to Tokyo and Seoul from Seattle in 2025 post-Hawaiian acquisition. ❖ Casey’s General Store ( $CASY) Q2: EPS $4.85, revs down 2.9% to $3.95B. Grocery up 8.8%, Fuel down 8.8%. ❖ eBay ( $EBAY) downgraded to Underperform by Jefferies, target cut to $52 from $60. ❖ Stellantis ( $STLA) and CATL to invest €4.1B for a low-cost EV battery plant in Spain. ❖ Toll Brothers ( $TOL) Q4: EPS $4.63, revs up 10% to $3.33B. Backlog down 6.9%, contracts up 30%. ❖ Vail Resorts ( $MTN) Q1: EPS ($4.61), revs $260.28M. Guides net income to $240M-$316M. ❖ Anglo American ( $NGLOY) faces charges in Chile over El Soldado copper mine issues. ❖ Celanese Corp. ( $CE) appoints Scott Richardson as CEO effective Jan 1, 2025. ❖ Fluence Energy ( $FLNC) offers $300M in convertible bonds due 2030. ❖ Planet Labs ( $PL) Q3: EPS loss (-$0.02), revs $61.3M. Q4 revenue expected at $61M-$63M. ❖ Amazon ( $AMZN) and Intuit ( $INTU) expand partnership, leveraging AWS since 2013 for enhanced customer experiences. ❖ Arthur J. Gallagher ( $AJG) offers $8.5B in common stock at $280/share. ❖ Cohen & Steers ( $CNS) AUM up to $91.4B from $89.7B, driven by $1.9B market appreciation, offset by net outflows. ❖ Lazard ( $LAZ) AUM at $234.4B, with $3B market appreciation, $2.3B net outflows, and $2.2B forex depreciation. ❖ Eli Lilly ( $LLY) launches $15B share buyback, increases dividend by 15% to $1.50/share. ❖ Fate Therapeutics ( $FATE) shares positive Phase 1 data for FT819 in treating lupus, showing sustained B-cell depletion and remission in first patient. ❖ HealthEquity ( $HQY) Q3: EPS $0.78 vs. est. $0.72; revs $300.4M vs. est. $290M; adjusted EBITDA up 24% to $118.2M. Forecasts FY24 EPS $3.08-$3.16, revs $1.185B-$1.195B. ❖ Oracle ( $ORCL) Q2: adj EPS $1.47 vs. $1.48 est., revs $14.06B vs. $14.12B est. AI demand boosts Oracle Cloud Infrastructure by 52%; Total Remaining Performance Obligations up 49% to $97B; Cloud Revenue up 24% to $5.9B. ❖ Braze ( $BRZE) Q3: adj EPS $0.02 vs. loss (-$0.01) est., revs $152.1M vs. $148.19M est. Q4 guidance and FY25 revenue outlook raised to $588M-$589M. ❖ https://t.co/dPTowbRrks ( $AI) Q2: revs up 29% to $94.3M, adj EPS loss (-$0.06) vs. (-$0.16) est. Q3 revs forecast at $95.5M-$100.5M; FY25 revenue expected at $378M-$398M. ❖ Micron Technology ( $MU) receives $6.1B subsidy for U.S. semiconductor facilities. ❖ MongoDB ( $MDB) Q3: adj EPS $1.16 vs. $0.69 est., revs up 22% to $529.4M. Atlas revenue up 26%, customer base at 52,600. Raises FY25 EPS and revenue forecasts; CFO resigns. ❖ Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM) November sales up 34% y/y to NT$276.06B, down 12.2% m/m.

MORNING RECAP Dollar Tree ( $DLTR) Q3: ╌Adjusted EPS: $1.12 (beat by $0.04) ╌Revenue: $7.56B (beat by $120M) ╌Same-store sales growth: Dollar Tree +1.8%, Family Dollar +1.9%, Enterprise +1.8% ╌Q4 Guidance: EPS $2.10-$2.30, Revenue $8.1B-$8.3B ╌Continues strategic review of Family Dollar segment Foot Locker ( $FL) Q3: ╌Adjusted EPS: $0.33 (missed by $0.08) ╌Sales: $1.96B (missed by $60M) ╌Comp sales: +2.4% (below estimate) ╌FY25 adjusted EPS forecast lowered to $1.20-$1.30 from $1.50-$1.70 ╌FY25 comp sales growth narrowed to 1%-1.5% ╌Gross margin now expected at 28.7%-28.8% General Motors ( $GM): ╌To record over $5B in non-cash charges for China JV: ╌Restructuring: $2.6B-$2.9B ╌Reduced value: $2.7B Torrid Holdings ( $CURV) Q3: ╌EPS: ($0.01) (missed by $0.04) ╌Adj EBITDA: $19.584M (missed by $7.2M) ╌Revenue: $263.766M (missed by $22M) ╌Q4 Guidance: Sales $255M-$270M, Adj EBITDA $9M-$15M ╌FY25 Guidance: Sales $1.083B-$1.098B, Adj EBITDA $101M-$107M Volkswagen ( $VWAGY): ╌Recalls 4,616 vehicles in the US due to potential battery overheating/fire risk. Crescent Energy ( $CRGY): ╌Acquires Eagle Ford assets from Ridgemar Energy for $905M upfront, with additional oil price-based payments. Intuitive Machines ( $LUNR): ╌Offers 9.523 million shares at $10.50 each. Old Dominion ( $ODFL) November Performance: ╌LTL tons/day: -8% ╌LTL shipments/day: -6.8% ╌LTL weight/shipment: -1.2% XPO, Inc. ( $XPO) November Metrics: ╌LTL tonnage/day down 4.0% from last year. ╌Shipments/day down 4.2%. ╌Weight/shipment up by 0.2%. Goldman Sachs ( $GS): ╌CEO David Solomon sold 6,550 shares at $610.91/share. Iris Energy ( $IREN): ╌Issues $300M in convertible senior notes due 2030. Raymond James Financial Inc ( $RJF): ╌Authorizes $1.5B share repurchase. ╌Increases dividend to $0.50. Royal Bank of Canada ( $RY) Q4: ╌Adjusted EPS: C$3.07 (up from C$2.65) ╌Revenue: C$15.07B (up from C$12.69B) ╌Dividend raised by 4.2%. Eli Lilly ( $LLY) vs. Novo Nordisk ( $NVO): ╌Zepbound outperforms Wegovy with 20% vs. 14% body weight loss. Novavax ( $NVAX): ╌Sells Czech manufacturing facility to Novo Nordisk for $200M, aiming for $80M annual cost reduction. Revolution Medicines ( $RVMD): ╌Secondary offering of 14.13M shares at $46.00 each. Salesforce Inc. ( $CRM) Q3: ╌Adjusted EPS: $2.41 (vs. est. $2.44) ╌Revenue: $9.44B (vs. est. $9.348B) ╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $9.9B-$10.1B (vs. est. $10.05B) ╌FY Revenue Guidance: Raised to $37.8B-$38.0B ╌Q4 Adj EPS Guidance: $2.57-$2.62 (vs. est. $2.65) ╌FY Adj EPS Guidance: $9.98-$10.03 (vs. est. $10.11) Box Inc. ( $BOX) Q3: ╌EPS: $0.45 (vs. est. $0.42) ╌Revenue: $275.9M (up 5% y/y, vs. est. $275.1M) ╌RPO: $1.282B, up 13% q/q ╌FY25 EPS Guidance Raised to $1.70 ╌FY25 Revenue Guidance Narrows to $1.09B Couchbase Inc. ( $BASE) Q3: ╌EPS: ($0.35) (vs. est. ($0.08)) ╌Revenue: $51.628M (vs. est. $50.78M) ╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $52.7M-$53.5M (vs. est. $54.05M) ╌Q4 ARR: $236.5M-$239.5M Marvell Technologies ( $MRVL) Q3: ╌Adjusted EPS: $0.43 (vs. est. $0.41) ╌Revenue: $1.52B (up 6.9% y/y, vs. est. $1.45B) ╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.59±$0.05 ╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $1.8B±5% (vs. est. $1.65B) Okta Inc. ( $OKTA): ╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.67 (vs. est. $0.58) ╌Revenue: $665M (vs. est. $649.7M) ╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $667M-$669M ╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.73-$0.74 ╌FY Revenue Guidance: $2.595B-$2.597B ╌FY Adjusted EPS Guidance: $2.75-$2.76 Pure Storage ( $PSTG): ╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.50 (vs. est. $0.42) ╌Revenue: $831.1M (vs. est. $814.88M) ╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $867M ╌Q4 Adjusted Operating Income: $135M NXP Semiconductors ( $NXPI) & Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM): ╌Discussing $8B Singapore venture expansion amid U.S.-China tech tensions.

RECAP • $AMZN: Developing smart glasses for delivery drivers to aid navigation. • $ARMK: Q4 EPS $0.54 vs. $0.53 est., new $500M buyback, dividend up 11%, FY25 guidance increased. • $BLMN: Downgraded to Market Perform by Raymond James. • $BKNG: Announces organizational changes and layoffs. • $TSLA: Shares up 7% premarket, reached $1T market cap post-Trump win. • $ENPH: Cutting 17% of workforce, expects $17-20M in restructuring costs. • $NOV: Downgraded to Neutral by Citigroup, target price cut to $18. • $SMR: Filed for up to $200M share offering. • $Russia: Potential merger of major oil companies into one entity. • $FTX: Sued Binance & Zhao for $1.8B, also suing Scaramucci. • $GEHC & $RDNT: Collaborating on AI in imaging. • $INSP: $75M share repurchase program. • $TEVA: Seeking to reverse patent decision. • $TSM: Ordered to stop exporting advanced AI chips to China. • $SPNS: Reduced FY24 revenue forecast, Q3 underperformed. • $SONY: Q2 profit up 69%, game biz profits doubled, PS5 sales at 3.8M. • $PINS: Upgraded to Outperform by Wedbush.

一大早扫了一眼国内同学群，大家已经喊出“中芯国际目标一万亿” 日尼玛看的我都FOMO了，赶紧去买了一手 $TSM 台积电，大家都是芯片板块的，按道理会跟着一起涨，这逻辑是不是无懈可击！

Tusima空投 $TSM 领取 查查你有没有 https://t.co/Qie0n60BbD TDO 参与者、Galactic Deposit Campaign、Star Event 和 Tusima 积分持有者可以在此分发中领取您的 $TSM 。 #Tusima #TSM #Airdrop #CZ

9Aug $TSM 台积电 台积电2024年7月营收报告显示，公司7月的净营收达到新台币2569.53亿元，较6月增长23.6%，同比增长44.7%。从今年1月至7月，台积电的总收入已达新台币1.5231万亿元，同比增长30.5%。强劲的营收增长反映了台积电在AI消费端侧基建的领先地位以及强劲的市场需求。

8Aug Headline $NVDA $TSM 对AI大基建持续投资的5大底层逻辑