Notes
MIZUHO: POSSIBLE CHINA TARIFF RELIEF FOR SOME U.S. SEMIS
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh notes unconfirmed reports that China may ease the 125% tariff on some U.S. semiconductors (under code 8542), excluding those for storage use.
Exemptions might include ICs, but most U.S.-made semis may still face the full tariff. No official statement yet.
Analog semis ( $ON, $ALGM, $MCHP, $TXN), handset RF ( $SWKS, $QRVO), and possibly PC CPUs ( $INTC) are seeing strength on hopes of easing tensions. More clarity could come from Intel’s earnings today.
PREMKT
🔸 $AAPL | +4.97%
🔸 $PTON | +4.12%
🔸 $INTC | +3.19%
🔸 $BABA | +2.53%
🔸 $AMD | +2.29%
🔸 $NVDA | +1.70%
🔸 $NFLX | +1.58%
🔸 $MSFT | +1.55%
🔸 $SNAP | +1.51%
🔸 $META | +1.50%
🔸 $AMZN | +1.15%
🔸 $TSLA | +0.99%
🔸 $DIS | +0.90%
🔸 $GOOGL | +0.90%
PREMKT
🔸 $XPEV: -11.68%
🔸 $MSTR: -9.99%
🔸 $BABA: -7.52%
🔸 $TSLA: -7.15%
🔸 $NIO: -6.79%
🔸 $NVDA: -6.35%
🔸 $AMD: -4.40%
🔸 $APPL: -4.23%
🔸 $INTC: -3.88%
🔸 $META: -3.71%
🔸 $AMZN: -3.12%
🔸 $GOOGL: -2.69%
🔸 $BA: -2.42%
🔸 $NFLX: -2.36%
🔸 $MSFT: -2.07%
PREMKT
🔸 $XPEV: -14.20%
🔸 $BABA: -11.45%
🔸 $MSTR: -10.73%
🔸 $NIO: -9.25%
🔸 $TSLA: -8.59%
🔸 $NVDA: -7.05%
🔸 $AMD: -6.02%
🔸 $META: -5.19%
🔸 $INTC: -4.33%
🔸 $AMZN: -4.27%
🔸 $BA: -4.20%
🔸 $NFLX: -3.89%
🔸 $APPL: -3.80%
🔸 $GOOGL: -3.70%
🔸 $MSFT: -3.62%
Premkt
$VIX: 38
$BABA: -8.29%
$JD: -7.77%
$XPEV: -7.49%
$AMZN: -5.40%
$AMD: -5.29%
$INTC: -5.22%
$TSLA: -5.13%
$AAPL: -4.73%
$NIO: -4.55%
$NKE: -4.41%
$MSFT: -4.38%
$META: -4.25%
$RIVN: -3.82%
$NVDA: -3.80%
$GOOGL: -3.07%
$AMC: -2.27%
While the market was collapsing, someone was front-loading Intel $INTC calls before $TSM news today.
At 12pm EST someone bought $100k in $INTC $23.5 calls expiring Apr 17.
As soon as news came out, stock rallied, they sold full position for $500k.
$INTC was red, lost most of tech, and completely devoid of bids until this trader conveniently came.
In the first image on the top right screen you can actually see the bump clearly, where the whale trade came in, and others started following shortly after. Most exited for gains after the bump.
Very disgusting to see on a day where most people were worrying about their portfolios and retirement.
Very cool, very legal.


Market Updates:
🔸 American Eagle ( $AEO) adds 50M shares to buyback; Q4 revs $1.6B (est. $1.6B); Q1 off to slow start; sees FY25 revs declining low-single digits (est. +2.97%).
🔸 Calavo Growers ( $CVGW) Q1 adj. EPS $0.33 (est. $0.29); revs +21% y/y to $154.39M (est. $161.55M); says Mexico tariffs won’t significantly impact operations.
🔸 Tesla ( $TSLA) partners with Baidu ( $BIDU) to enhance ADAS in China (Reuters).
🔸 Adobe ( $ADBE) Q1 adj. EPS $5.08 (est. $4.97), revs $5.71B (est. $5.66B); reaffirms FY25 targets; Q2 revs guidance $5.77B-$5.82B (est. $5.8B).
🔸 Intel ( $INTC) appoints Lip-Bu Tan as CEO, replacing interim co-CEOs.
🔸 SentinelOne ( $S) Q4 EPS (-$0.22) (est. -$0.21); revs +29% y/y to $225.5M (est. $222.33M); FY26 revs guidance $1.007B-$1.012B (est. $1.03B).
🔸 UiPath ( $PATH) Q4 adj. EPS $0.26 (est. $0.20); revs +4.5% y/y to $423.6M (est. $424.9M); Q1 revs guidance $330M-$335M (est. $367.4M).
🔸 Marvell ( $MRVL) files mixed securities shelf.
🔸 Microsoft ( $MSFT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson.
🔸 Phreesia ( $PHR) Q4 EPS (-$0.11) (est. $0.11); revs $109.7M (est. $108.9M); maintains FY26 revs $472M-$482M, adj. EBITDA outlook.
🔸 Dentsply Sirona ( $XRAY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham.
🔸 Berry ( $BRY) Q4 adj. EPS $0.21 (est. $0.15), revs $187.79M (est. $173M); Q4 production +5% QoQ, +1% YoY; FY25 production 24.8-26 MBoe/d (93% oil); capex $110M-$120M.
🔸 Cummins ( $CMI), Paccar (PCAR) shares down as EPA moves to reverse EV rules; Jefferies sees downside risk if 2027 prebuy doesn’t happen.
🔸 Freight Car ( $RAIL) Q4 revs $137.7M (est. $152.02M); sees FY25 railcar deliveries 4,500-4,900, revs $530M-$595M; Q4 gross margin 15.3% (vs. 9.6% y/y).
🔸 Murphy Oil ( $MUR) acquires FPSO vessels in Gulf of Mexico; cuts annual costs by $60M, reaffirms 2025 capex.
🔸 Sunnova ( $NOVA) exploring restructuring, possible bankruptcy; holds $8.5B in debt (WSJ).
$INTC
Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM is considering operating Intel $INTC factories after Trump's request yesterday.
Calls pouring in. @unusual_whales
MORNING BID
Baidu ( $BIDU) Q4 Revenue: ¥34.12B (-2% y/y, Est. ¥33.32B) 📉
🔹 Ad revenue down 7% to ¥17.9B, offset by AI Cloud growth (+26% y/y).
Broadcom ( $AVGO) & Intel ( $INTC):
🔹 Broadcom held informal talks on acquiring Intel’s chip-design unit (WSJ).
🔹 No formal offer yet; deal uncertain.
Roku ( $ROKU): Files mixed securities shelf.
Alcohol Industry Struggles:
🔹 Younger consumers opt for moderation/abstinence, hurting alcohol sales.
🔹 Underperforming stocks: TAP, DEO, BF/B, BUD.
🔹 Winners: Nonalcoholic brands like Athletic Brewing & Ritual Zero Proof thrive.
🔹 Anglo American ( $NGLOY): Selling nickel unit to MMG Ltd for up to $500M, refocusing on copper & iron ore.
🔹 Delta ( $DAL): Regional jet flipped on landing in Toronto amid high winds; 18 injured.
🔹 Diamondback ( $FANG): Acquires Double Eagle units for 6.9M shares + $3B cash to expand Midland Basin.
🔹 Entergy ( $ETR): Q4 adj. EPS $0.66 (Est. $0.63); FY25 guidance: $3.75-$3.95 (Est. $3.92).
🔹 H&E ( $HEES): Accepts Herc Rentals' $5.3B bid, rejecting United Rentals' offer (FT).
🔹 Sealed Air ( $SEE): CEO Patrick Kivits steps down; Dustin Semach appointed; FY24 outlook reaffirmed.
🔹 Capital One ( $COF): Jan. net charge-offs 6.12% (vs. 5.71% y/y); delinquencies 4.61% (vs. 4.78% y/y).
🔹 Discover ( $DFS): Jan. credit card delinquency 1.80%, charge-off 2.63% (SEC filing).
🔹 JPMorgan ( $JPM): Jan. credit card delinquency 0.88%, charge-off 1.64% (SEC filing).
🔹 Janus Henderson ( $JHG): Expanding into Saudi Arabia to grow Middle East presence (Bloomberg).
🔹 KKR ( $KKR): Buying 5% more of Eni’s (E) Enilive biofuel unit for €587.5M, raising stake to 30%.
🔹 Johnson & Johnson ( $JNJ): Faces court decision today on $10B settlement over baby powder litigation; Judge Lopez to decide on Chapter 11 filing.
🔹 Medtronic ( $MDT): Q3 adj. EPS $1.39 (Est. $1.36); Q3 revs +2.5% y/y to $8.29B (Est. $8.33B); maintains full-year guidance.
🔹 Oculis ( $OCS): 5M share secondary priced at $20.00 per share.
Updating the $INTC calls found on @unusual_whales 🐳. $INTC is up another 7.55% today. These contracts are now up 71% over the last 3 sessions. The whale is still holding these with 400 days to go. Absolutely beautiful find on the flow.
$AMD $INTC $ARM - AMD GAINS CPU SHARE OVER INTEL – BOFA
🔸 AMD continues to gain market share over Intel in Q4 2024.
🔸 Intel regained some desktop unit share but lost value share due to pricing cuts.
🔸 ARM adoption slower than expected but projected to accelerate in 2025.
🔸 BofA Ratings: Buy on ARM, Neutral on AMD, Underperform on Intel.
$INTC is now up 9.99% on the day. These calls with 402 days left on them are already approaching 20%. Contracts running from 1.92 to 2.30 so far. This is the power of using @unusual_whales 🐳 to spot this kind of flow.
$INTC - INTEL SHARES DOWN 1% PREMARKET AFTER REPORT CHINESE REGULATORS LOOKING AT LAUNCHING FORMAL PROBE INTO CO
$INTC - CHINA TARGETS GOOGLE, NVIDIA AND INTEL AS TRUMP TARIFFS BITE
Beijing has revived antitrust investigations into Google and Nvidia, while considering a new probe against Intel, as China looks for new leverage against US President Donald Trump.
China’s State Administration for Market Regulation announced on Tuesday that it had opened an competition investigation into Google, which two people familiar with the matter said would focus on dominance of US group’s Android operating system and any harm caused to Chinese phonemakers, such as Oppo and Xiaomi, which use the software.
https://t.co/dm6IRsdZu3