Notes
“自 2 月 19 日以来，美国股市的市值已蒸发超过 13 万亿美元。” 多于1/3 的美国36万亿国债！
自由落体了，3.11黑色星期二载入史册
自由落体了，BTC已经跌破77000，ETH马上要跌破1800，SOL要破110了，前阵子红火一下的LTC快跌破80了，熊市就这么迅雷不及掩耳地来了！我昨天说气氛是，反弹快跑，看来没错，每一次反弹都是逃生止损的机会，不信邪，就要死。过去1小时ETH爆仓5697万美元，超过BTC爆仓金额。Coinglass 数据显示，过去 1 小时全网爆仓 1.64 亿美元，其中 ETH 爆仓金额 5687 万美元，BTC 爆仓金额为 4612 万美元。
小韭菜被爆了，某巨鲸也不好受，5小时前一位巨鲸因仓位濒临清算卖出2.58万枚 ETH，亏损达3,175万美元！但是现在看，他5小时前的果断行为还是对的。
这位巨鲸因避免仓位清算而在 5 小时前以 1,853 的价格卖出 2.58 万枚 ETH，换得 4781 万 USDT 用于偿还杠杆借款。该巨鲸此前通过循环贷杠杆做多 ETH，于 2024 年 7 月以 3,084 的均价买入这些 ETH。这笔交易导致他仅在杠杆购买的 ETH 上亏损高达 3,175 万。
ETH 价格的下跌促使一些杠杆做多 ETH 的巨鲸仓位濒临清算，不得不卖出 ETH 来降低仓位清算线，而这些卖出行为进一步加剧了 ETH 的下跌。
DeFi TVL已回吐特朗普当选美国总统以来所有涨幅
自 2024 年 11 月特朗普当选美国总统以来，DeFi 协议中锁定的加密货币总价值（TVL）已完全回吐了此前的涨幅。分析师 Miles Deutscher 指出，自美国大选以来，DeFi TVL 在 12 月 17 日一度飙升至 1380 亿美元，但到 3 月 10 日已回落至 926 亿美元。DefiLlama 数据显示，以太坊的 TVL 已从周期高点下跌了 450 亿美元。尽管行业出现了积极的发展，例如美国推出现货 ETF 以及特朗普签署建立战略比特币储备的行政命令，但以太坊在 2021 年 11 月创下的 4787 美元历史高点至今未被突破。
分析师：比特币当前盘整期可能会演变为中期熊市
3 月 11 日，YouHodler 市场主管 Ruslan Lienkha 指出，去年比特币的盘整阶段曾持续数月（甚至长达半年），然后才迎来下一波上涨。不过，他认为当前的市场环境更为复杂。
「美国股市的悲观情绪占据上风，对美国可能出现经济衰退的担忧也在加剧。」Lienkha 表示，「鉴于这些因素，当前的盘整期可能会演变为中期熊市。」
但 Lienkha 指出：「尽管比特币未来有可能演变为避险资产，但目前投资者仍将其视为高风险资产，往往比传统金融市场对市场情绪变化反应更为剧烈。」
雪上加霜，开曼群岛新法规拟4月1日生效，将要求加密托管和交易公司获得许可，这对加密世界来讲，避风港又少了一处。
根据 2025 年 4 月 1 日生效的更新法规《虚拟资产服务提供商（修正案）条例》，开曼群岛将要求加密货币托管和交易公司获得许可才能运营，已经在该国运营的公司必须在 2025 年 6 月 29 日之前提交申请，详细说明资产安全措施和运营细节，据悉 Coinbase、Binance 和 Bitwise 等主要加密货币公司已经在开曼群岛获得许可，而 Sui Foundation 等一些公司已在那里设立总部。
昨晚，美股科技板块全面下跌，“7巨头”市值较近期高点缩水逾3万亿美元
据 solidintel 监测，美股科技板块全面下跌，“7 巨头”市值较近期高点缩水逾 3 万亿美元：
Strategy $MSTR ：-14％；
特斯拉 $TSLA ：-8％；
Palantir $PLTR ：-7％；
Alphabet $GOOGL ：-5％；
Broadcom $AVGO ：下跌 5%；
Meta $META ：-4％；
英伟达 $NVDA ：-4%；
亚马逊 $AMZN ：-3%；
Netflix $NFLX: -3 %；
微软 $MSFT ：-2％
一时间真是四面楚歌，伏尸百万，流血千里，哀鸿遍野！3.11，有一个黑暗的日子载入币圈史册。
当初在10万以上时，那么多人拍大腿没有买7万的比特币，现在可以买了，大家还买吗？要不要做空？谁来给一个答案？
$BTC #BTC #ETH
本文首发币安广场： https://t.co/ljyelCHPpi
Free fall, 3.11 Black Tuesday goes down in history
Free fall, BTC has fallen below 77,000, ETH is about to fall below 1,800, SOL is about to break 110, LTC, which was popular a while ago, is about to fall below 80, and the bear market has come so fast! I said yesterday that the atmosphere is to rebound and run, and it seems to be right. Every rebound is an opportunity to escape and stop loss. If you don't believe in it, you will die. In the past hour, ETH liquidated 56.97 million US dollars, exceeding the amount of BTC liquidation. Coinglass data shows that in the past hour, the entire network liquidated 164 million US dollars, of which ETH liquidated 56.87 million US dollars and BTC liquidated 46.12 million US dollars.
The small leeks were liquidated, and a giant whale was not feeling well. 5 hours ago, a giant whale sold 25,800 ETH because his position was on the verge of liquidation, with a loss of 31.75 million US dollars! But now it seems that his decisive behavior 5 hours ago was still right.
This whale sold 25,800 ETH at 1,853 5 hours ago to avoid position liquidation, in exchange for 47.81 million USDT to repay leveraged loans. The whale had previously leveraged long ETH through revolving loans and bought these ETH at an average price of 3,084 in July 2024. This transaction caused him to lose up to 31.75 million on leveraged ETH alone.
The decline in ETH prices has prompted some whales who are leveraged long ETH to be on the verge of liquidation, and they have to sell ETH to lower the position liquidation line, and these selling behaviors have further exacerbated the decline of ETH.
DeFi TVL has given up all gains since Trump was elected as the US President
Since Trump was elected as the US President in November 2024, the total value of cryptocurrencies locked in DeFi protocols (TVL) has completely given up its previous gains. Analyst Miles Deutscher noted that since the US election, DeFi TVL surged to $138 billion on December 17, but fell back to $92.6 billion by March 10. DefiLlama data shows that Ethereum's TVL has fallen by $45 billion from its cyclical high. Despite positive developments in the industry, such as the launch of spot ETFs in the United States and Trump's executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, Ethereum's all-time high of $4,787 in November 2021 has not been broken so far.
Analyst: Bitcoin's current consolidation period may evolve into a medium-term bear market
On March 11, YouHodler Market Director Ruslan Lienkha pointed out that Bitcoin's consolidation phase lasted for several months (even up to half a year) before the next wave of increases. However, he believes that the current market environment is more complicated.
"Pessimism in the U.S. stock market is prevailing, and concerns about a possible U.S. recession are also growing," Lienkha said. "Given these factors, the current consolidation period could evolve into a medium-term bear market."
But Lienkha pointed out: "Although Bitcoin has the potential to evolve into a safe-haven asset in the future, investors currently still view it as a high-risk asset, which tends to react more violently to changes in market sentiment than traditional financial markets."
To make matters worse, new regulations in the Cayman Islands are scheduled to take effect on April 1, which will require crypto custody and trading companies to obtain licenses, which is one less safe haven for the crypto world.
According to the updated regulations, the Virtual Asset Service Providers (Amendment) Regulations, which will take effect on April 1, 2025, the Cayman Islands will require cryptocurrency custody and trading companies to obtain licenses before they can operate. Companies already operating in the country must submit applications by June 29, 2025, detailing asset security measures and operational details. It is reported that major cryptocurrency companies such as Coinbase, Binance and Bitwise have already obtained licenses in the Cayman Islands, and some companies such as Sui Foundation have established headquarters there.
Last night, the U.S. tech sector fell across the board, and the market value of the "Big 7" shrunk by more than $3 trillion from its recent highs
According to solidintel monitoring, the U.S. tech sector fell across the board, and the market value of the "Big 7" shrunk by more than $3 trillion from its recent highs:
Strategy $MSTR: -14%;
Tesla $TSLA: -8%;
Palantir $PLTR: -7%;
Alphabet $GOOGL: -5%;
Broadcom $AVGO: down 5%;
Meta $META: -4%;
Nvidia $NVDA: -4%;
Amazon $AMZN: -3%;
Netflix $NFLX: -3%;
Microsoft $MSFT: -2%
For a while, it was really surrounded by enemies, with millions of corpses, thousands of miles of blood, and wailing everywhere! 3.11, there was a dark day recorded in the history of the currency circle
When the price was over 100,000, many people didn't buy 70,000 Bitcoin. Now you can buy it, will you still buy it? Do you want to short it? Who can give an answer? @Agent_SunLumi
This article was first published on Binance Square: https://t.co/ljyelCHPpi
MORNING BID
Baidu ( $BIDU) Q4 Revenue: ¥34.12B (-2% y/y, Est. ¥33.32B) 📉
🔹 Ad revenue down 7% to ¥17.9B, offset by AI Cloud growth (+26% y/y).
Broadcom ( $AVGO) & Intel ( $INTC):
🔹 Broadcom held informal talks on acquiring Intel’s chip-design unit (WSJ).
🔹 No formal offer yet; deal uncertain.
Roku ( $ROKU): Files mixed securities shelf.
Alcohol Industry Struggles:
🔹 Younger consumers opt for moderation/abstinence, hurting alcohol sales.
🔹 Underperforming stocks: TAP, DEO, BF/B, BUD.
🔹 Winners: Nonalcoholic brands like Athletic Brewing & Ritual Zero Proof thrive.
🔹 Anglo American ( $NGLOY): Selling nickel unit to MMG Ltd for up to $500M, refocusing on copper & iron ore.
🔹 Delta ( $DAL): Regional jet flipped on landing in Toronto amid high winds; 18 injured.
🔹 Diamondback ( $FANG): Acquires Double Eagle units for 6.9M shares + $3B cash to expand Midland Basin.
🔹 Entergy ( $ETR): Q4 adj. EPS $0.66 (Est. $0.63); FY25 guidance: $3.75-$3.95 (Est. $3.92).
🔹 H&E ( $HEES): Accepts Herc Rentals' $5.3B bid, rejecting United Rentals' offer (FT).
🔹 Sealed Air ( $SEE): CEO Patrick Kivits steps down; Dustin Semach appointed; FY24 outlook reaffirmed.
🔹 Capital One ( $COF): Jan. net charge-offs 6.12% (vs. 5.71% y/y); delinquencies 4.61% (vs. 4.78% y/y).
🔹 Discover ( $DFS): Jan. credit card delinquency 1.80%, charge-off 2.63% (SEC filing).
🔹 JPMorgan ( $JPM): Jan. credit card delinquency 0.88%, charge-off 1.64% (SEC filing).
🔹 Janus Henderson ( $JHG): Expanding into Saudi Arabia to grow Middle East presence (Bloomberg).
🔹 KKR ( $KKR): Buying 5% more of Eni’s (E) Enilive biofuel unit for €587.5M, raising stake to 30%.
🔹 Johnson & Johnson ( $JNJ): Faces court decision today on $10B settlement over baby powder litigation; Judge Lopez to decide on Chapter 11 filing.
🔹 Medtronic ( $MDT): Q3 adj. EPS $1.39 (Est. $1.36); Q3 revs +2.5% y/y to $8.29B (Est. $8.33B); maintains full-year guidance.
🔹 Oculis ( $OCS): 5M share secondary priced at $20.00 per share.
Someone yesterday filled our whole flow with $AVGO 235c and over the next 24 hours AVGO ran straight up over $14 a share turning every $140 into $520 overnight. Great trade, with the help of @unusual_whales !!
BAIRD: BUY NIVDIA, AMD AMID DEEPSEEK SELLOFF
🔸 DeepSeek launch raises AI power, complexity concerns
🔸 Strong AI demand persists despite uncertainties
🔸 GPU evolution seen as hardware-driven; skeptical of workarounds
🔸 $NVDA less pricey than $AVGO; AMD offers best value
🔸 Recommends buying $NVDA, $AMD on dips
🔸 Top picks in chips include $NVDA, $MU, $SMTC, $HIMX
MORNING BID
🔸 $ACMR: Raises 2024 revenue forecast to $755M-$770M from $725M-$745M; sees 2025 at $850M-$950M vs. consensus $902.95M.
🔸 $APLD: Shares up 30% after Macquarie's $5B investment for 15% stake in AI data centers.
🔸 $AVGO: Secures $7.5B five-year credit facility.
🔸 $IAC: To spin off $ANGI stake to shareholders; Joey Levin steps down as CEO.
🔸 $TTAN: Q3 revenue $199.3M; Q4 expected at $199M-$201M vs. consensus $193.58M; FY25 revenue projected at $761.6M-$763.6M vs. consensus $755.37M.
🔸 $DHR: Q4 revenue expected to rise by low single digits year-over-year.
🔸 $INGN: Q4 revenue forecast at $79.0M-$80.0M, above $73.9M estimate; FY24 revenue guidance raised to $334.5M-$335.5M from $329M-$331M, vs. $329.62M consensus.
🔸 $KIDS: Q4 revenue at $52.7M vs. $50.73M estimate; FY25 revenue guidance $235-242M vs. $239.95M estimate, adjusted EBITDA $15-17M vs. $20.14M forecast.
🔸 $RGNX: Stock up after deal with Nippon Shinyaku for gene therapies; $110M upfront and potential $700M in milestones.
🔸 $TDOC: New partnership with $AMZN to broaden access to chronic care programs.
🔸 $RILY: Shares rise after Q2 2024 report showing a $14.35 per share net loss, delayed due to Franchise Group issues; expects normal filing schedule in 2025.
🔸 $AB: AUM fell to $792B in December 2024 from $813B, a 2.6% drop due to market and outflow issues.
🔸 $IVZ: AUM dropped to $1,846B, down 0.6% with $12.6B in net long-term inflows but $42B reduction from market returns.
🔸 $VRTS: Total client assets at $177.3B in December 2024, down due to outflows and market performance.
🔸 $URI: Acquiring $HEES for $92/share, valuing the deal at $4.8B including debt.
Insurance Industry: LA wildfires might cost insurers over $30B, with significant damage from Palisades and Eaton fires.
🔸 $AVAV: Secures $55.3M order for Switchblade Systems under U.S. Army's LUS program.
🔸 $CE: Upgraded to Buy from Underperform by Bank of America on valuation.
🔸 $FANG: Q4 unhedged prices at $69.48/bbl oil, $0.48/mcf gas, $19.27/bbl NGLs; hedged prices at $68.72/bbl oil, $0.82/mcf gas, $19.27/bbl NGLs.
🔸 $WAB: Agrees to purchase Evident's inspection tech division for $1.78B.
🔸 $KBH: Q4 EPS $2.52 vs. $2.45 est., revenue $1.999B vs. $2.008B est.; FY25 housing revenue guidance $7.00-7.50B, avg selling price $488-498K.
🔸 $NOMD: 2025 organic revenue growth expected at 1%-3%; confident in meeting 2024 guidance.
🔸 $SIG: Q4 adj. operating income forecast at $337M-$347M, below previous $397M-$427M; sales expected at $2.32B-$2.34B, under prior $2.38B-$2.46B.
🔸 $ADM: Downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Bank America.
🔸 $LVS: Downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley.