Notes
特斯拉股票仍值得买入:未来12个月或飙升73%!
Stifel分析师Stephen Gangaro将特斯拉(NASDAQ: TSLA)的目标价从455美元小幅下调至450美元,但依然维持“买入”评级。这小小的调整仍意味着未来12个月特斯拉股价有73%的上涨空间。以下是特斯拉未来为何如此耀眼。
短期挑战,巨大潜力
特斯拉近期遇到一些障碍:关税问题、品牌争议,以及因生产切换至新款Model Y(2024年全球最畅销车型)导致的第一季度交付量下滑。但管理层直面这些问题,未来前景依然乐观。
改变游戏规则的催化剂
- 马斯克全力以赴:从5月起,埃隆·马斯克将投入更多精力领导特斯拉。
- 新车型,重磅来袭:今年将推出低成本车型,Cybercab计划2026年量产。
- 无人出租车来了:6月,奥斯汀将推出配备全自动驾驶(FSD)的Model Y无人出租车。
利润率提升:首席财务官Vaibhav Taneja表示,美国、中国等市场的老款Model Y库存已清空,意味着无需折扣,新车型定价更稳,利润率有望提升。
为什么值得关注
这些举措为特斯拉带来短期收益,同时奠定长期统治地位——无人出租车收入、新车型销量以及全自动驾驶的持续盈利。如果关税问题缓解,特斯拉股价的上行空间将更大。
以上是分析员的看法,非投资建议。#Tesla $TSLA
$TSLA - ANALYST REAFFIRMS TESLA OVERWEIGHT RATING, $355 TARGET
The analyst maintains an Overweight rating and a $355 price target for Tesla, despite near-term risks like tariffs, macro headwinds, Musk's politics, and the potential loss of the EV tax credit.
🔸 Long-term confidence remains strong, supported by:
🔸 Robotaxi launch in Texas (June), followed by California
🔸 Lower-priced vehicle (~$30,000) debuting in 1H25
🔸 Musk committing more time to Tesla starting May
🔸 FSD rollout in China (began 1Q25) and expected in Europe (1H25)
🔸 Optimus Bot mass production (2026E) and customer deliveries (2027E)
🔸 Semi Truck production expected in 2026
The analyst sees future growth driven by FSD, Robotaxi, Energy Storage, and Optimus. With Tesla shares down ~36% YTD, they view it as an attractive long-term buying opportunity for investors comfortable with volatility.
Options flow in $TSLA over the past 3 trading days from @unusual_whales below
With a beta of ~2.4, and the S&P up ~2.5%, the close-to-close move of ~4.6% was inline. It rallied another 5% or so after hours, suggesting that the 20% drop in auto revenue and a $0.12 EPS miss were
“特斯拉一季报惨淡却获大摩力挺:410美元目标价,自动驾驶与机器人成关键”
摩根大通唱衰特斯拉,称其一季度表现远逊预期,基本面恶化速度超乎想象,增长故事已终结。然而,摩根士丹利却依然看好,维持“增持”评级,并给出410美元的超高目标价。
大摩Adam Jonas团队认为,尽管特斯拉核心汽车利润率不佳且面临关税风险,但马斯克已将精力从DOGE等事务转向特斯拉,自动驾驶和机器人领域的进展足以支撑长期估值,点燃投资者信心。
其410美元目标价拆解为:核心汽车业务(75美元/股)、网络服务(160美元/股)、移动出行(90美元/股)、能源业务(67美元/股)、第三方供应商(17美元/股)。 $TSLA #Telsa
$TSLA - MUSK'S DOGE DEPARTURE SEEN AS END OF DARK CHAPTER FOR TESLA: WEDBUSH
Elon Musk said on Tesla's latest earnings call that his role in the Trump administration is winding down and that he will be returning his attention to Tesla, a move that allows Musk to turn the corner from a "dark chapter" that accompanied a disastrous quarter for the EV maker, Wedbush analysts Dan Ives and Sam Brandeis say in a research note. They view the call as a turning point in the Tesla story. This was an off-ramp for Tesla to escape the global brand damage, political firestorm and chaos of the past few months, the analysts say. They expect Musk will spend minimal, if any, time with DOGE from here out
$TSLA - TESLA EARNINGS SET TO SPARK BIG MOVE
Traders are bracing for major volatility after Tesla reports earnings Tuesday after the close. Options markets are pricing in a 9.7% swing, up or down, according to ORATS.
Tesla shares slid another 6% Monday, dragged down by trade-war fears. The stock is now down over 44% YTD, weighed by consumer backlash, Elon Musk’s ties to Trump, and a broader risk-off market.
$TSLA - TESLA Q1 PREVIEW: WELLS FARGO SEES PROFIT DROP
Wells Fargo expects Tesla's Q1 EPS at $0.34, below the $0.42 consensus, citing weak deliveries (~337K units) and low operating leverage. Auto gross margin (ex-credits) is seen falling to 12.8% from 13.6%.
The firm cut its FY25 EPS forecast by 16%, citing an 11% drop in deliveries (vs. 7% prior). Demand for the refreshed Model Y appears soft, with inventory reportedly building. There’s also no update on the low-cost Model 2, and Cybertruck demand is fading.
While pricing for Models 3/Y and S/X rose slightly, aggressive financing acts as a stealth discount, failing to boost demand. Analysts expect Tesla to pivot toward speculative projects like the Cybercab and Optimus, though experts remain skeptical.
SECTOR NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
TECH/MEDIA/TELECOM:
🔸 Netflix ( $NFLX): Beats Q1 earnings; strong Q2 guidance.
🔸 Nvidia ( $NVDA): Down 3% on Huawei AI chip shipment news.
🔸 Cognizant ( $CTSH)/DocuSign ( $DOCU): Expand partnership.
🔸 Disney ( $DIS): Upgraded to Outperform at Wolfe Research; $112 target.
🔸 Tempus AI ( $TEM): Initiated with Buy at BTIG; $60 target.
CONSUMER:
🔸 Amazon ( $AMZN): Downgraded at Raymond James; price target cut to $195 from $275.
🔸 QXO: Extends $124.35/share tender offer for Beacon Roofing (BECN).
🔸 Tesla ( $TSLA): Affordable car launch delayed; low-cost Model Y production to begin in U.S.
ENERGY/INDUSTRIALS/MATERIALS:
🔸 Boeing ( $BA): Returning rejected 737 Max jets from China to U.S.
🔸 Cosco Shipping: Warns U.S. tariffs on Chinese ships threaten global trade.
🔸 EU: Eases methane rules to avoid gas-related trade clash with U.S.
FINANCIALS:
🔸 Capital One ( $COF): Gets approval to acquire Discover (DFS), becoming top U.S. credit card lender.
🔸 Comerica ( $CMA): Beats Q1 estimates; EPS $1.25 vs est. $1.18.
🔸 Global Payments ( $GPN): Downgraded at Jefferies; target cut to $75.
🔸 Independent Bank ( $INDB): Misses Q1 EPS; raises dividend by 4%.
HEALTHCARE:
🔸 Pacira ( $PCRX): Approves $300M stock buyback.
🔸 Regeneron ( $REGN)/Sanofi (SNY): FDA approves Dupixent for chronic hives in patients 12+.
下午跟几个哥们聊了一个很有趣的话题:如果现在你只能选一只股票,并且要持有未来10年,你会选哪个?我仔细想了一下:
苹果 $AAPL 未来10年真不好说,或者说我看不懂,自乔布斯去世至今14年,库克这些年CEO做的很成功,不瞎折腾其实很难,但是未来10年我是真看不懂,头盔貌似已经失败了?反正我买的那已经几个月没碰过了。
英伟达 $NVDA 潜在的竞争对手还是很多的, 护城河貌似撑不了10年。
特斯拉 $TSLA 马斯克是最大的不确定性,我赌了他过去10年,但是未来10年不敢再赌了,感觉现在的他有点跑偏。
台积电 $TSM 目前确实是独一无二的存在,但是地缘政治的不确定性也不敢拿10年不动。
最后讨论半天,我觉得我敢持有未来10年而且睡得着觉的是爱马仕 $HESAY
因为10年后科技发展成什么样,AI如何进步我们现在没法估计,但是有一点不变的是女人永远喜欢Birkin和Kelly
那么,如果换你会选哪个公司敢持有10年?
$TSLA - PIPER SANDLER CUTS TARGET PRICE TO $400 FROM $450
Q1 deliveries (337k) missed estimates (378k), likely pushing gross margins to multi-year lows. With no specs or pricing yet for "Model 2", near-term delivery growth looks limited. We're cutting our estimates and lowering the price target to $400 (from $450).
Near-term view is bearish, but big-picture catalysts (like new models and robo-taxis) could spark a strong rally. When that happens, we wouldn’t want to be underweight.
PREMKT
🔸 $AAPL | +4.97%
🔸 $PTON | +4.12%
🔸 $INTC | +3.19%
🔸 $BABA | +2.53%
🔸 $AMD | +2.29%
🔸 $NVDA | +1.70%
🔸 $NFLX | +1.58%
🔸 $MSFT | +1.55%
🔸 $SNAP | +1.51%
🔸 $META | +1.50%
🔸 $AMZN | +1.15%
🔸 $TSLA | +0.99%
🔸 $DIS | +0.90%
🔸 $GOOGL | +0.90%