Notes
杰尼获悉：微策略 @MicroStrategy 上周增持220枚BTC，均价123,561美元。
emmm，表哥这个均价有点高了吧，不过买的也不多，问题不大，现在整体持仓均价已经 74K 了，4月份的最低点看来要成为这轮牛熊的铁底了。
#Bitcoin/ Stock market – What’s Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All You Need to Know
🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:
This is the last post I am going to publish this month. I will be back in November, in the meantime I will drink tea, tea and even more tea. The market is entering a highly unstable zone. Yet people cant see or understand due to the euphoria in the market, and yet my Sell Zone of 115-125k region remains a large distribution area in which large players are selling into the crowd that is buying happily not understanding that the sell pressure is not visible yet as retail buyers flow from all directions. While retail sentiment across X remains euphoric and todays fake pump that ended with a downside move after hitting the 125k will provide one more headline in the news "BTC NEW ATH" attracting more retails to jump in. While we see the same pattern in the stock market with record retail inflows since August, financial market indicators are flashing early warnings of a liquidity crunch brewing beneath the surface.
1. The Repo Crisis That No One Wants to See
Every major market correction begins with a liquidity problem hidden in plain sight. Today, that red flag is the Reverse Repo (RRP) market. RRP usage has collapsed from a $2.2 trillion peak (mid-2022) to just $8–10 billion today, a 99% drawdown. This “cash on the sidelines” narrative is officially dead. The buffer that once stabilized interbank liquidity has vanished. Historical parallels (2018, 2019, 2023) show that when RRP dries up completely, markets soon face severe dislocations, repo stress, funding squeezes, or even emergency Fed interventions. The Standing Repo Facility (SRF) is now the only liquidity backstop. If reserves fall near $3 trillion, banks will tap it aggressively, the modern version of “printing in panic.” but it will be too late. Translation: We are one shock away from testing the Fed’s tolerance for financial pain. I keep repeating my words, dont fight the Dollar (DXY) and the golden rise is ahead for the DXY!
2. The “$7 Trillion in MMFs” Myth
A popular claim on X and elsewhere is that “$7 trillion in Money Market Funds (MMFs)” will soon flood equities or crypto. That is 1000% false as MMF capital must flow into T-Bills, repos, or the Fed’s RRP facility, not assets. When MMF cash moves, it DRAINS liquidity from the real market, not adds to it. In short, the liquidity pyramid is tightening from the top down, not expanding.
3. U.S. Banking Fragility
U.S. banks hold roughly $395 billion in unrealized losses (Q2 2025), quietly pressuring balance sheets. History shows: The Fed doesn’t start printing in calm seas, it waits for something to happen. A controlled crash may be exactly what they need before launching QE 5.0
4. Crypto Market:
ETF inflows: BlackRock and other issuers added >$1 billion in BTC and $200 million in ETH last week and Large wallets have slowed but not fully stopped in selling since late September; short-term holders already capitulated in August–September. Bollinger Bands, the tightest since major breakouts, suggest a strong move is near to one or the other direction. Remember: Bitcoin has never decoupled from stock-market liquidity. If equities face a repo-driven shock, BTC will initially dip with risk assets before becoming the first beneficiary of the post-crash liquidity wave. Retail traders are once again chanting the “liquidity flood” myth, ignoring macro fragility. This is the same delusion seen before the 2022 crash, euphoria at the edge of systemic stress. We can see clear FOMO metrics are rising. Leveraged longs are at cycle highs and Yet under the surface, liquidity is collapsing. Since August I have sold my entire Crypto Assets and started to build short positions in the region of 115-125k with current average entry of 119,9k region. My plan is to hold the shorts and consider the current zone as banana zone which is indeed a sideway zone between 115-125k as told in August. Next to the tripple top we also see a massive bearish divergence forming on the weekly chart, the same divergence was the reason for the end of 2021 bull market, we see the same indicator giving us a warning again! A warning that should not be ignored in my opinion! If for any reason BTC breaks out above my 125k level, I need to prepare to hold for several days/ weeks in red before it turns back in profit. My strategy is for the long term and I held my coins for 3 years before selling them all realising a massive profit of 600% in BTC alone or selling ETH at the top of $4,800. More than happy to be positioned well for the upcoming events. In the meantime, drinking tea and relax.
5. MSTR & the Yield-Panic Signal
MicroStrategy raised its preferred-share yields from 10% → 10.25% (up from 9% only weeks ago), a sign of funding strain. Behind the scenes, Saylor’s “Bitcoin flywheel” ($MSTR → $STRC/$STRD/$STRF preferreds) is losing traction. Constant share dilution has eroded MSTR’s mNAV premium, now underperforming BTC by ~25% in 6 months. New preferred issuances try to mask liquidity gaps with double-digit dividends, an unsustainable model unless BTC keeps rising faster than issuance. Without fresh inflows, the structure risks becoming a closed-loop Ponzi flywheel, similar in dynamic to Terra/Luna and the reason for the next bear market.
6. Inisider Selling: Since August we see the largest amount of Insider sales in the last 2-3 years, till this day insiders continue to dump their own shares into the market in a massive speed. At the same time we have the largest retail investor inflow as well! This mix is highly toxic and usually occurs at cycle tops!
Question for the Bulls: If you believe 140k will hit before the bear market starts that’s only 14% higher from here. Are you really willing to risk everything for a possible 14% move? What if the market never reaches 140k? You’ll be stuck holding, waiting for a top that never comes, and end up selling much lower, or not selling at all. This is how every cycle ends for most people: “I didn’t take profits.” See you in a month! Premium will remain active and updated as usual.
Overall market remains very bearish at a macro level, and even bulls in Crypto or Stocks agree that the bear market will start in the end or after Q4. In the meantime, we see the final rat race I am not taking part in. Instead, I start to short in anticipation on whats coming!
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THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVICE AND EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY
微策略是玩儿明白了，在融资买 $BTC 的路上越走越远了
这次直接玩儿了个大的，之前都是几个亿的募资
这次直接24.74亿，比前几次加起来还多
本文想给大家梳理下他到底怎么借钱的
这也算给各位老板一些吹点
又几十个亿进场买大饼，打的是真明牌
其实重要的不是微策略这么几十亿的购买量
是它正在开创一套多维度的融资工具矩阵
如果所有上市公司都加以模仿
那这个钱，可就进来的多了
到目前为止，它一共搞了
$STRK 、 $STRF 、 $STRD 和 $STRC 四轮募资了
说白了就是发债借钱买币
只是每一种的借钱条件不大一样
刚开始他还搞点债转股，忽悠大家以后发展好了
可以兑换成股权
现在直接发债了，利息8%-10%不等
看来他搞懂了
很多传统的资金就想赚利息
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