Notes
随着比特币跌破了微策略的持仓成本，微策略也继续提高了其优先股STRC的股息至11.25%来护盘，压力大的时候就想想@saylor，一边是持仓BTC持续下跌但又得继续花钱买，另一边是自家股票持续下跌还得提高股息护盘，老实说如果没有微策略这5年540亿美金的投入和建设，比特币现在的合理价格已经回到5开头了，而再过3天这个月4号就是Michael Saylor的60大寿，本可功成名就享受天伦之乐的老头现在却深陷泥潭苦苦挣扎，让我们提前祝他生日快乐🫡
$SENT 空投昨天也领完了，就差2月2日 @zama 的最后一舞，嘴撸也就正式落幕了。
接下来还是建议大家寻找源头新项目进行研究参与。精选 9 个值得关注的 #早期项目，涵盖预测市场 / GameFi / 交易 / AI / 稳定币 / DeFi 基础设施 👇
1️⃣ ZEIT Finance（@ZEITFinance）
将预测市场资产化，把事件预测做成可组合的 DeFi 永续资产。
可基于现实事件进行「真金白银下注」，并与 @Polymarket 等集成。
2️⃣ Cash City（@cashcitydotfun）
Solana 上的 交易员 / Degen 模拟经营游戏。
无预售、无团队分配、无 ICO、无 NFT，
纯社区驱动的 GameFi 体验。
3️⃣ Dream（@dreaming）
面向移动端的 加密 + 期权交易 App（iOS / Android）。
无清算
零 Gas
支持 BTC / ETH / SOL 等期权
可 Apple Pay 入金
主打轻量化交易体验。
4️⃣ Internet Backyard（@netbackyard）
为 AI / GPU / 数据中心 提供金融基础设施。
自动化报价、计费、结算和现金流管理，
解决算力市场中金融流程割裂的问题。
5️⃣ Project Eleven（@qdayclock）
专注 后量子加密（Post-Quantum Cryptography），
为 BTC、Solana 等链提前应对量子威胁。
💰 已完成 $20M A 轮融资
投资方包括：Castle Island、CB Ventures、Balaji 等。
6️⃣ Hermes / BlackOpal（@hermessubnet）
Bittensor 子网（SN82），
提供 实时 AI + 链上数据查询（GraphQL）。
类似 Web3 版 “AI 数据搜索引擎”
可用自然语言查询链上信息
由 @SubQueryNetwork 开发
2026/1/15 上线，获 Yuma Group / Barry Silbert 支持
7️⃣ Saturn / USDat（@usdat21）
基于 BTC 暴露的 高收益稳定币协议。
sUSDat 年化 11%+
收益来自 MicroStrategy 的 $STRC + 美债工具
👉 DeFi 版「数字信用稳定币」。
8️⃣ STAK（@STAK_Fi）
由 3.25 亿美元以上澳洲 RWA 支持的收益型资产。
存 USDC → 铸造 STAK
动态年化 ~33%
无锁仓、即时流动性
完全链上透明
9️⃣ Nado（@nadoHQ）
一站式 CLOB DEX：
现货 + 永续 + 货币市场，共享保证金。
团队来自 Kraken
部署于 @inkonchain
私测期间 24h 成交量破 $10 亿
📌 总结
这一期明显的关键词：
预测市场 × AI × 高收益稳定币 × 一体化交易终端
有不少项目处在「刚被注意到，但还没爆」的阶段，
适合提前跟踪。
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@arbusai · @getmoni_io · @_dexuai
世界是被偏执狂和疯子改变的
在大多数人还在计算风险、犹豫周期、等待更合适的时机时，总有人选择反其道而行，用近乎固执的方式下注未来
Strategy 再一次这么做了
买进 22,305 枚比特币 $BTC ，约 21.3 亿美元，单价接近 9.5 万美元
在信仰者眼中，这只是长期叙事中的又一个平常动作
截至 2026 年 1 月 19 日
709,715 枚 BTC
累计成本约 539.2 亿美元
平均价格 75,979 美元
对法币体系的不信任
对稀缺性的执念
以及对时间站在自己这边的笃定
@saylor 是最接近中本聪的人
历史很少奖励温和的怀疑者
它更偏爱那些被嘲笑、被质疑、被贴上疯子标签的人
因为只有偏执到愿意承受巨大波动的人，才有可能在旧秩序松动时，占据新秩序的核心位置
真正推动世界向前的
从来不是共识本身
而是那些在共识形成之前
就已经勇往直前押上的人
"Top 3 Bitcoin Dividend Stocks That Pay Me $2k Per Month"
The great @BrainHarrington joins us to talk best Bitcoin stocks to buy for 2026 and beyond!! $STRC $BTCI $MSTR
Click HERE 👇
>> https://t.co/v8Leur5ejX
看了Salyor对于MSCI想把资产负债表超过50%加密货币公司剔除指数的反驳推文，其实突然意识到，貌似按道理最好的应对策略，就是所有的BTC财库公司都转向BTC L2和BTC Staking，并且ETH财库公司要全面梭哈All In各种staking，因为只有这样对于这些财库公司来说，他们囤积的加密货币不再只是投资用途，而是公司经营必须的生产资料，就像石油公司囤积石油，家具公司囤积木材，这都很合理总不能再说三道四吧，此计妙哉否？
@saylor @fundstrat
MSCI Proposal Misses the Mark!
MSCI proposes excluding firms with >50% of their balance sheet in a single crypto asset from passive indices, treating them as funds.
This is much bigger than just MSTR & Bitcoin. I disagree with MSCI and agree with Saylor.
The case for Proof-of-Stake (ETH, SOL, etc.) is even stronger:
They are NOT funds/trusts. They are actively participating, running validators, creating liquidity, and earning returns.
This is business operation, not passive holding. Don't exclude innovation.
Understand what others fail to understand
Education is the highest art of trading
These are the real reasons for the crash
All given at the top of $123,000 region
Read, understand, learn from it!
$BTC PROMISED TARGET OF $90,000 IS HIT
BTC IS 30% DOWN FROM SHORT ENTRY
DO YOU UNDERSTAND ????
杰尼获悉：微策略 @MicroStrategy 上周增持220枚BTC，均价123,561美元。
emmm，表哥这个均价有点高了吧，不过买的也不多，问题不大，现在整体持仓均价已经 74K 了，4月份的最低点看来要成为这轮牛熊的铁底了。
#Bitcoin/ Stock market – What’s Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All You Need to Know
🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:
This is the last post I am going to publish this month. I will be back in November, in the meantime I will drink tea, tea and even more tea. The market is entering a highly unstable zone. Yet people cant see or understand due to the euphoria in the market, and yet my Sell Zone of 115-125k region remains a large distribution area in which large players are selling into the crowd that is buying happily not understanding that the sell pressure is not visible yet as retail buyers flow from all directions. While retail sentiment across X remains euphoric and todays fake pump that ended with a downside move after hitting the 125k will provide one more headline in the news "BTC NEW ATH" attracting more retails to jump in. While we see the same pattern in the stock market with record retail inflows since August, financial market indicators are flashing early warnings of a liquidity crunch brewing beneath the surface.
1. The Repo Crisis That No One Wants to See
Every major market correction begins with a liquidity problem hidden in plain sight. Today, that red flag is the Reverse Repo (RRP) market. RRP usage has collapsed from a $2.2 trillion peak (mid-2022) to just $8–10 billion today, a 99% drawdown. This “cash on the sidelines” narrative is officially dead. The buffer that once stabilized interbank liquidity has vanished. Historical parallels (2018, 2019, 2023) show that when RRP dries up completely, markets soon face severe dislocations, repo stress, funding squeezes, or even emergency Fed interventions. The Standing Repo Facility (SRF) is now the only liquidity backstop. If reserves fall near $3 trillion, banks will tap it aggressively, the modern version of “printing in panic.” but it will be too late. Translation: We are one shock away from testing the Fed’s tolerance for financial pain. I keep repeating my words, dont fight the Dollar (DXY) and the golden rise is ahead for the DXY!
2. The “$7 Trillion in MMFs” Myth
A popular claim on X and elsewhere is that “$7 trillion in Money Market Funds (MMFs)” will soon flood equities or crypto. That is 1000% false as MMF capital must flow into T-Bills, repos, or the Fed’s RRP facility, not assets. When MMF cash moves, it DRAINS liquidity from the real market, not adds to it. In short, the liquidity pyramid is tightening from the top down, not expanding.
3. U.S. Banking Fragility
U.S. banks hold roughly $395 billion in unrealized losses (Q2 2025), quietly pressuring balance sheets. History shows: The Fed doesn’t start printing in calm seas, it waits for something to happen. A controlled crash may be exactly what they need before launching QE 5.0
4. Crypto Market:
ETF inflows: BlackRock and other issuers added >$1 billion in BTC and $200 million in ETH last week and Large wallets have slowed but not fully stopped in selling since late September; short-term holders already capitulated in August–September. Bollinger Bands, the tightest since major breakouts, suggest a strong move is near to one or the other direction. Remember: Bitcoin has never decoupled from stock-market liquidity. If equities face a repo-driven shock, BTC will initially dip with risk assets before becoming the first beneficiary of the post-crash liquidity wave. Retail traders are once again chanting the “liquidity flood” myth, ignoring macro fragility. This is the same delusion seen before the 2022 crash, euphoria at the edge of systemic stress. We can see clear FOMO metrics are rising. Leveraged longs are at cycle highs and Yet under the surface, liquidity is collapsing. Since August I have sold my entire Crypto Assets and started to build short positions in the region of 115-125k with current average entry of 119,9k region. My plan is to hold the shorts and consider the current zone as banana zone which is indeed a sideway zone between 115-125k as told in August. Next to the tripple top we also see a massive bearish divergence forming on the weekly chart, the same divergence was the reason for the end of 2021 bull market, we see the same indicator giving us a warning again! A warning that should not be ignored in my opinion! If for any reason BTC breaks out above my 125k level, I need to prepare to hold for several days/ weeks in red before it turns back in profit. My strategy is for the long term and I held my coins for 3 years before selling them all realising a massive profit of 600% in BTC alone or selling ETH at the top of $4,800. More than happy to be positioned well for the upcoming events. In the meantime, drinking tea and relax.
5. MSTR & the Yield-Panic Signal
MicroStrategy raised its preferred-share yields from 10% → 10.25% (up from 9% only weeks ago), a sign of funding strain. Behind the scenes, Saylor’s “Bitcoin flywheel” ($MSTR → $STRC/$STRD/$STRF preferreds) is losing traction. Constant share dilution has eroded MSTR’s mNAV premium, now underperforming BTC by ~25% in 6 months. New preferred issuances try to mask liquidity gaps with double-digit dividends, an unsustainable model unless BTC keeps rising faster than issuance. Without fresh inflows, the structure risks becoming a closed-loop Ponzi flywheel, similar in dynamic to Terra/Luna and the reason for the next bear market.
6. Inisider Selling: Since August we see the largest amount of Insider sales in the last 2-3 years, till this day insiders continue to dump their own shares into the market in a massive speed. At the same time we have the largest retail investor inflow as well! This mix is highly toxic and usually occurs at cycle tops!
Question for the Bulls: If you believe 140k will hit before the bear market starts that’s only 14% higher from here. Are you really willing to risk everything for a possible 14% move? What if the market never reaches 140k? You’ll be stuck holding, waiting for a top that never comes, and end up selling much lower, or not selling at all. This is how every cycle ends for most people: “I didn’t take profits.” See you in a month! Premium will remain active and updated as usual.
Overall market remains very bearish at a macro level, and even bulls in Crypto or Stocks agree that the bear market will start in the end or after Q4. In the meantime, we see the final rat race I am not taking part in. Instead, I start to short in anticipation on whats coming!
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