Notes
If Bitcoin Crashes In Next 7 Days...
$BTC $ETH $SOL
$SKY $PUMP $QNT
It Will Look Like This! 👀👀
Click HERE 👇
>>>https://t.co/Eo0qOB9CfH

“It’s Happening” BIGGEST MOMENT FOR CRYPTO HAPPENING NOW!
$BTC $ETH $XRP $SOL
$ADA $POL $NIGHT $SKY
Click HERE 👇
>>> https://t.co/yH23wVj9HZ
The mysterious whale "0xBC64" bought another ~$13.9M worth of 10 assets during the market dip — and moved them to on-chain wallet.
Including:
22.7M $ENA($5.92M)
1,898 $ETH($5.79M)
38,614 $LINK($527K)
74,217 $UNI($413K)
134,005 $PENDLE($323K)
753,625 $CRV($295K)
521,061 $ONDO($242K)
12,665 $ENS($141K)
754 $AAVE($140K)
149,593 $AERO($98K)

A whale bought $35.7M worth of 8 assets during the market dip, including:
3,175 $ETH($10.13M)
557,937 $LINK($7.99M)
20.14M $ENA($5.82M)
25,396 $AAVE($4.9M)
6.53M $ONDO($3.27M)
340,849 $UNI($2.05M)
22.59M $SKY($1.09M)
384,075 $LDO($244K)
These assets have now been moved on-chain to wallet 0xBC64.
https://t.co/nbsgE9S0h3

看来Aave要移除 USDS 和 DAI 作为抵押品了,这个投票压倒性的通过,下架的是目前Crypto原生最大的稳定币。
我同时持有 $AAVE $SKY $SPK, 所以手心手背都是肉,我相对理性的还原一下整个事情:
Aave的提案中给了大概2个理由:
1/ Sky和SubDAO内部之间USDS的分配存在风险。
2/ USDS在Aave中的利用率很低,无法给Aave带来多少利润。
基于这两点,Aave认为风险与收益已经不成正比,所以决定下架USDS。
首先USDS给Aave带来的收益不高,这个是事实,而且有了Spark以后,借贷这块的业务未来肯定也是逐渐往自己家拉的,这个没问题。
另外一个主要因素,Aave认为Sky和SubDAO之间的资金分配有潜在风险,指的是Sky和SubDAO之间存在“内部信用额度”,SubDAO可以通过零成本和极低成本的信用背书从Sky获得资金,而SubDAO的业务可能渗透进来一些高风险的收益策略,会降低USDS整体的稳定性。
这块有一些问题,根据 @RuneKek 的回应,SubDAO从Sky获得资金并不是免费的,有约等于4.55%的利息成本,相当于把USDS放贷给自己的子公司,而Sky对于这些子公司也有一个基准的风控要求,比如Spark必须优先把协议收入放到风险准备金中。
下面是我个人的观点:
首先我们先理清MakerDAO转型到Sky后,业务线上的变化,Sky → 给SubDAO放贷 → SubDAO拿去用到各自领域 → 赚利差,所以这套业务跑通的前置条件是,SubDAO能够在各个领域捕获高于USDS基础利率 (Sky放贷的利率) 的收益,等于Sky通过开子公司的方式目标完成在各个领域的布局,比如现在已经有了借贷 @sparkdotfi , RWA @grovedotfinance 。
从市场角度来说,Sky已经完全从只做稳定币的友军,逐渐变成竞争对手之一,与原来MakerDAO时期不断给Aave输送TVL的情况完全不同了。
从风险控制的角度说,我对Aave这个动作的理解,更多是源于无法控制SubDAO的风险选择,但还要硬吃这种选择可能带来的抵押品风险,这会让Aave处于相对被动的位置。
从Sky的角度来说,业务的扩展也是必要的,只停在CDP可能无法持续规模化,比如LUSD,它的CDP模型相当稳定且不可修改,但它的应用场景和市值也没有得到成长。这种扩张带来的不确定性是必然结果。Sky能做的就是进一步提升透明度,让用户能够清晰做出选择。
对用户来说,我觉得影响不会很大,本身在Aave上用USDS抵押借贷的需求就不大,如果实在有这个需求可以由Spark承接,同时Sky的Savings Vault和Spark SLL都有抵押品和资金流向披露,用户可以作出选择。

作者是个长期主义者
用营收评价公链,用市盈率评价Circle ,本质就是不懂,颇有用web 2八股文硬凑字数之感。
Be a believer.
挺有意思的一篇文章,全文没有教你炒币,也没告诉你什么能买,但是从另外一个纬度来解读了早期互联网和现在crypto可能相同的路径。
关键是告诉你天花板是你看不见无法预测的。
挺好的,意味着还能奏乐!!!
上午说的昨天最值得看的两篇长文之二,Dragonfly的 @hosseeb 写的这篇“为指数增长辩护”
先简单说说文章大意,具体细节还是建议大家自己阅读,然后说说为什么我觉得他能写出这样的文来
核心观点有三个
1. 金融犬儒主义 - 这是他在当前几个新公链上线时观察到的现象(Monad、Tempo、MegaETH),以前是要么Fomo要么冷漠,而现在则是大量的负面情绪(或者说“仇恨”)
具体来说,金融犬儒主义就是“承认部分资产有价值,但认为它们被高估(可能只值当前价值的1/5至1/10),担心华尔街会戳穿这一“泡沫”,所以Haseeb反对用传统金融指标(如P/E比率)来评价区块链,认为这忽视了指数增长的潜力。
2. 指数增长的历史 - 这部分跟上午Quote @mscryptojiayi 那篇长文有着异曲同工之妙,他拿了Web2的亚马逊以及Web3的稳定币举例,这俩一开始甚至运营了很多年之后都还在“挣扎”,Amazon成立了22年才开始实现盈利,USDT发行量第一次达到10亿的时候他个人都觉得不可思议,纽约时报甚至报道说Tether就是庞氏骗局,你再看看今天这俩公司变成啥样了
3. 用REV(Real Economic Value)或者P/E这种指标来评估ETH或者SOL有一定意义,但这本质上是把区块链局限在线性增长框架内,忽视了其指数级发展的可能性。
他认为华尔街喜欢线性,而硅谷看中指数级增长,总结成一句话就是 - 相信相信的力量!
我来说说为什么Haseeb能写出这篇文,他一直是我最喜欢的投资人+Podcaster之一,洞见深刻,带点Drama,且非常“敢说”,这与他个人的传奇经历有关。感觉中文区很多人只是听过他的名字,但不太知道这人的牛逼
之前看过他的一篇访谈,让我留下深刻印象的三个点
1. 这家伙16岁开始玩德州,19岁就玩成了世界顶流+职业选手,21岁带着百万美金盈利退役,退役之后还捐给慈善机构不少,提倡有效利他主义
2. 不打扑克之后他又开始自学编程,学成之后进了Airbnb做软件工程师(这自学能力也忒强了点。。。)
3. 误打误撞进VC - Naval,对!就是那个喊单Zcash的纳瓦尔!之前创办过一个Web3基金Metastable Capital,18年之前进圈的老韭菜很多认应该知道。纳瓦尔当时邀请Haseeb担任Metastable的General Partner(合伙人),而在这之前Haseeb完全没干过VC。纳瓦尔说“兄弟你要不来试试?” Haseeb说“试试就试试!”,这也是他进加密投资领域的关键一步,后来才有了Dragonfly的故事
能写出这样的文,一是跟他个人比较传奇的经历有关,能让纳瓦尔主动邀请去做基金合伙人的肯定不是一般人儿。二是DragonFly早期投过MakerDAO,Compound,见证过Defi从早期到爆发的指数级增长,信仰的确跟新VC或者新韭菜,甚至包括华尔街是不太一样的
所以当前四家顶流VC,除了自身实力强,都有一个超级KOL级别的Founder/合伙人顶在前台不断发声也很关键,A16z有@pmarca, Paradigm有@gakonst, Multicoin有 @KyleSamani ,Dragonfly有 @hosseeb
所以老铁们,你们相信他说的“指数增长的力量么”🧐
1️⃣这篇文章,很多小伙伴的解读是,公链的估值被高估了。
2️⃣我自己看到的却是正能量,作者觉得现在的币圈就像“当年的电商”,还在早期,终究会迎来指数级增长。
->我再好好想想,明天分享更多。
Got some requests to record a narration of this post (I get it, it's a long read). 👇
We didn't record a podcast episode for Thanksgiving week, so this will be going out on the @_choppingblock feed tomorrow.
Thanks for all the feedback everyone. Great discussions.
Dragonfly 的知名光头合伙人 Haseeb Qureshi 写的神文非常值得一读,加密发展到现在阶段,不管指数思维,还是线性思维,都是有原因的,这些原因跟我们每一个市场参与者息息相关…
我想说的是 :不是人们不相信了,而是被割怕了,或者说韭菜被连根拔起了…
缺乏监管的大背景之下,骗子没有任何成本的诈骗,结果就是现在这情况,没人相信了…
以前的胖协议最终会变瘦协议胖应用,未来没有真实数据支持的项目都是垃圾,不会再有人买单了,这就是所有人一起做恶的必然结果…
估值错配是这轮周期高性能公链的原罪。
不局限于现在fud 声最大Monad,也包括已经逐渐被市场遗忘的Berachain, Eclipse 等高估值天王级公链。
2年前估值12亿美元的Arbitrum 横空出世,TGE 时FDV 135亿美元,24年初达到224亿美元的峰值。投资者愿意为高性能公链技术革命的叙事买单,愿意为它的估值买单;VC 高兴、KOL 高兴、韭菜高兴、CEX 高兴、做市商高兴,几乎所有的利益相关方都高兴。
包括接下来TGE 的StarkNet 和zkSync,这个阶段几乎没有人认为高性能公链的估值是错配的。
但随着BaaS/ RaaS 一键发链工具的出现和普及,公链项目方发链的成本和技术门槛越来越低,完全颠覆了高性能公链赛道的竞争格局。crypto 加速进入百链甚至千链时代。
这轮周期高性能公链如过街老鼠、人人喊打的原因是什么?
是市场/ VC 把一个2年有效期的技术壁垒,当成了10年有效期的品牌壁垒来定价。这就导致了严重的估值错配。
这么说有些公链项目方可能会不服气,“我们的链不一样,有核心竞争优势,有护城河:并行化执行,100000+ TPS, balabala……”
你家的公链是跟 @base 一样每天都能产生几十万美元的净利润吗?还是跟 @HyperliquidX 一样单月有千万美元的手续费收入反哺持币用户?你家公链甚至连主网都没上,我想问有个卵的护城河?
要终结这轮高性能公链“估值原罪”的魔咒,唯一的出路只能是把整个估值体系推翻后重构。


硅谷是指数增长思维,而华尔街是线形增长思维;
因为加密货币开始被华尔街接受,所以传统估值体系从指数增长变为了线形增长…
这才有了公链估值空间大幅被压低的原因,说白了就是:市梦率变成了市盈率…
在我看来公链无非就是互联网二层,当互联网全面转向AI时,公链还在早期增长阶段…
那么这轮周期山寨走的弱,ETH和SOL不尽如人意,也就都是正常的了…
举个例子,假设你是韩立的徒弟,炼气期,当你师傅在外面和元婴大佬斗法时,你还在为怎么搞到筑基丹而发愁…
In Defense of Exponentials
I used to tell founders, the reaction you are going to get to your launch is not hate, it’s indifference. By default, nobody cares about your new chain.
I have to stop telling them that now. Monad just launched this week, and I’ve never seen so much hate about a blockchain that just launched. I’ve been investing into crypto professionally for 7+ years now. Before 2023, almost every chain I’ve ever seen that launched was mostly met with enthusiasm or indifference.
But now, new chains are born into a chorus of hate. The amount of haters I’ve seen for projects like Monad, Tempo, MegaETH—before they even hit mainnet—is a genuinely new phenomenon.
I’ve been trying to diagnose: why is this happening now, and what does it mean about the psychology of this market?
The Cure is Worse than the Disease
Forewarning: this is going to be the vaguest blockchain valuation post you ever read. I don’t have any fancy metrics or charts to sell you on. Instead, I’ll be arguing against the zeitgeist of Crypto Twitter, which for the last couple of years, I’ve been constantly on the opposite side of.
In 2024, I felt like what I was arguing against was financial nihilism. Financial nihilism is the belief that none of these assets matter, it’s all memes at the end of the day, and everything we’ve built is inherently worthless.
Thankfully, that’s no longer the vibe. We have broken out of that spell.
But the zeitgeist now is what I’d call financial cynicism: OK, maybe some of this stuff has value, maybe it’s not all memes, but it’s grossly overvalued and it’s only a matter of time before Wall Street finds that out. Not that all chains are worthless. But these things are all maybe worth 1/5th-1/10th of what they’re currently trading at (have you seen these PE ratios?), and so you’d better pray like hell Wall Street doesn’t call us on our bluff, because once they do it’s all getting wiped out.
You’ve got many bullish analysts now trying to conjure up optimistic L1 valuation models, inflating PE ratios, gross margins, DCFs, trying to fight against this mood.
Late last year, Solana very proudly embraced REV as a metric that could finally justify their valuation. They proudly announced: we—and only we—are no longer bluffing to Wall Street!
And, of course, almost immediately after REV was embraced, it fell off a cliff (though $SOL, tellingly, did better than REV did).
Not that there’s anything wrong with REV. REV is a very clever metric. But the point of this post is not metric selection.
Then came the launch of Hyperliquid. A DEX that had real revenue and buybacks and PE multiples. And the chorus said—look, look I told you! Finally, for the first time ever, a token that has some real profits and a proper PE multiple. (Nevermind BNB, we don’t talk about that.) Hyperliquid will eat everything because obviously Ethereum and Solana don’t make any real money, we can stop pretending to value them now.
Hyperliquid, Pump, Sky, these buyback-heavy tokens are all great. But the market always had the ability to invest into exchanges. You could always buy Coinbase, or BNB, or whatever. We own $HYPE, and I agree that it’s a fantastic product.
But that’s not why people were investing in ETH and SOL. The fact that L1s don't have exchange-like profit margins is not why people were buying them—if they wanted that, they could’ve bought Coinbase stock.
So if I’m not critiquing blockchain financial metrics, maybe you think this post is going to be chiding the sinfulness of the token-industrial complex.
Obviously, everyone has lost money on tokens in the last year, VCs included. Alts are down bad this year. And so the other half of the zeitgeist on CT is arguing about who's to blame. Who’s become greedy? Are the VCs greedy? Is Wintermute greedy? Is Binance greedy? Are the farmers greedy? Are the founders greedy?
The answer, of course, is the same as it’s ever been.
Everyone is greedy. Everyone. The VCs, Wintermute, the farmers, Binance, the KOLs, they're all greedy, and you are greedy too. But it doesn't matter. Because no functioning market has ever required anyone to act against their self-interest. If we're right about crypto, we can all be greedy and the investments will still work out. Trying to analyze a market that has gone down by figuring out “who’s greedy” is going to be about as fruitful as commissioning witch trials. I guarantee you, nobody just started being greedy in 2025.
So this, too, is not what I’m going to be writing about.
Many people want me to write a post about why $MON should be valued at X or $MEGA at Y. I’m not interested in writing this post, or advocating that you buy anything in particular. In fact, you probably shouldn’t buy any of them if you don’t already believe in them.
Will any new challenger chain win? Who knows. But if it has a material chance of winning, it's going to be priced on that basis. If Ethereum is worth $300B or Solana is worth $80B, a project that has a 1-5% chance of becoming the next Ethereum or Solana will be priced according to those probabilities.
Somehow CT is scandalized by this, but it’s no different than Biotech. A drug that has less than a 10% chance of curing Alzheimer's is priced by the market as worth billions of dollars, even if 90% chance it won’t pass stage 3 trials and will go to 0. That's how the math works—and turns out, markets are pretty good at doing math. Binary outcomes are priced on probabilities, not on run rates or moral turpitude. It’s the “shut up and calculate” school of valuation.
I really don’t think that’s an interesting question to write about. “5% chance to win? No way, that’s clearly a 10% chance!” Markets, not articles, are the best way to assess that for any individual token.
So here’s what I am going to write about: CT doesn't seem to believe anymore that chains are valuable.
I don’t think this is because they don’t believe new chains can win market share. We just saw Solana dominate market share after emerging from the ashes less than 2 years ago. It’s not easy, but of course it’s possible.
It’s more that people have come to believe that even if a new chain wins, there’s no prize worth winning. If $ETH is just a meme, if it’ll never generate real revenue, then even if you win, you won’t be worth $300B. The contest is not worth winning, because these valuations are all bunk and it’ll all come crashing down before you go to claim your prize.
Being optimistic about chain valuations has become passé. Not that nobody is optimistic—obviously there must be optimists out there. For every seller there’s a buyer, and as much as CT cool kids love to drag L1s, people are comfortable buying SOL at $140, ETH at $3000.
But there’s a perception now that all the smartest people are over buying smart contract chains. Smart people know the jig is up. If not now, then soon. The only people buying here are suckers—Uber drivers, Tom Lee, and KOLs who say stuff like “trillions.” And maybe the US Treasury. But not the smart money.
This is bullshit. I don’t believe it, and you shouldn’t either.
So I felt like I had to write a smart person’s manifesto on why general purpose chains are valuable. This post is not about Monad or MegaETH. It’s really in defense of ETH and SOL. Because if you believe ETH and SOL are valuable, the rest is straight downstream.
Defending ETH and SOL valuations is generally not my job as a VC, but fuck it, if nobody else is willing to do it, then I’ll write it.
Feeling the Exponential
My partner Bo experienced the Chinese Internet boom first-hand as a VC. I’ve heard how “crypto is like the Internet” so many times now that it doesn’t even register for me anymore. But when I hear his stories, it always reminds me how costly it is to be wrong about these things.
A story he often tells is about when all the early e-commerce VCs (it was a small group back then) got together for coffee in the early 2000s. They debated: how big is the market for e-commerce going to be?
Is it going to be mostly electronics (maybe only techies will use PCs)? Could it ever work for women (perhaps they’re too tactile)? What about food (maybe impossible to manage perishables)? These were deeply important questions for early VCs to decide what to invest in and what prices to pay.
The answer, of course, was that literally every single one of them was devastatingly wrong. E-commerce would sell everything, and the target audience was the whole fucking world. But nobody at the time actually believed it. And even if they did, it would be too absurd to say out loud.
You just had to wait long enough for the exponential to show you. Even among the believers, very few thought e-commerce would become as big as it became. And those few who did, almost all of them became billionaires from just not selling. Every other VC—as Bo tells me, since he was one of them—sold too early.
It has become passé in crypto to believe in the exponential.
I believe in the crypto exponential. Because I’ve lived it.
When I started in crypto, nobody used this stuff. It was tiny and broken and awful. TVL on-chain was in the millions. We invested into the first generation of DeFi, MakerDAO, Compound, 1inch, back when they were science projects. I remember playing around on EtherDelta back when DEXes traded single digit millions a day, and that was considered to be a huge success. It was complete dogshit. Now we routinely trade in the tens of billions on-chain every day. I remember believing it was crazy that Tether hit a billion dollars in issuance and was being written up in the NYT as a ponzi scheme on the brink of shutdown. Now stablecoins are over $300B and regulated by the Federal Reserve.
I believe in the exponential because I’ve lived it. I’ve seen it over and over again.
But you might respond—well, stablecoin growth might be exponential, maybe DeFi volumes are exponential, but they don’t accrue to ETH or SOL. The value doesn’t get captured by the chains.
To which I answer: you still don’t believe in the exponential.
Because the exponential’s answer is always the same: it doesn’t matter. This stuff is going to be so much bigger than it is today. And when it’s absolutely enormous, you’ll make it up on scale.
Study this chart.
This is Amazon’s P&L from 1995 to 2019. That’s 24 years. Red is revenue, gray is profit. You see that little blip on the end where the gray line goes up? That’s when, 22 years in, Amazon started actually making a profit.
Amazon was 22 years old when this little gray line of net income first peeled off of 0. Every single year before then, there were op eds and critics and short sellers claiming that Amazon was a ponzi scheme that would never make any money.
Ethereum just turned 10 years old. This is what the first 10 years of Amazon stock looked like:
10 years of chop. All along the way, Amazon was beset with doubters and non-believers. Is e-commerce a VC-subsidized charity? They’re selling underpriced cheap low-quality knick-knacks to bargain hunters, who cares? How are they ever going to make actual money, like Walmart or GE?
If you were arguing about Amazon’s P/E ratio, you were in the wrong regime. That’s the regime of linear growth. But e-commerce was not a linear trend, and so every single person for 22 years arguing about P/E ratios was devastatingly wrong. No matter what you paid, no matter when you bought, you were not bullish enough.
Because that’s what exponentials do. When it comes to truly exponential technologies, no matter how big you think it’s going to get, it just keeps getting even bigger.
This is the thing that Silicon Valley has always understood better than Wall Street. Silicon Valley was raised on exponentials, while Wall Street was raised on linearity. And over the last few years, crypto’s center of gravity has migrated from Silicon Valley to Wall Street. You can feel it.
Granted, crypto growth doesn’t look as smooth as e-commerce’s growth. It’s burstier, it goes in fits and starts. This is because crypto, being about money, is deeply tied to macro forces, and it also has more violent regulatory push and pull than e-commerce. Crypto strikes at the heart of the state—money—and so it’s more unnerving to governments than e-commerce ever was.
But the exponential is no less inevitable. It's a crude argument. But if crypto is exponential, then the crude argument is correct.
Zoom out.
Financial assets want to be free. They want to be open. They want to be interconnected. Crypto turns financial assets into file formats, makes it as easy to send a dollar or a stock as to send a PDF. Crypto makes it possible for everything to talk to everything. It makes it all 24/7, global, interconnected, and open.
That will win. Open always wins.
If there’s no other lesson I've learned from the Internet, it’s that. Incumbents will fight against it, governments will huff and puff, but eventually they will give up against the adoption, the generativeness, the sheer efficiency that this technology enables. It’s what the Internet did to every other industry. Blockchains are how that same trend will gobble up all of finance and money.
Yes—with enough time—all of it.
An old saying goes: people overestimate what can happen in two years, but they underestimate what can happen in ten.
If you believe in the exponential, if you zoom out enough, then it’s all still cheap. And it should humble you that every day, the holders outlast the sellers and naysayers. Big capital has a longer time horizon than CT swing traders might lead you to believe. Big capital has been trained through history not to fade big technologies. You know, the big gushy story that originally got you to buy $ETH or $SOL? Big capital believes that story and hasn't stopped.
So what exactly am I arguing?
I am arguing that applying P/E ratios to smart contract chains (the “revenue meta,” as it’s now called), is giving up on the exponential. It means you have consigned this industry to the regime of linear growth. It means you believe 30 million DAUs on-chain and <1% of M2 is it. Crypto is just one of the things in the world. A sideshow. It did not win. It was not inevitable.
More than anything, I’m arguing to be a believer. Not just a believer, but a long-term believer.
I’m arguing that this exponential will be bigger than anything else you’ve been a part of in your life. That this is your e-commerce. That you will look back when you’re old and tell your kids—I was there when it all happened. Not everyone believed it was possible, that whole societies could change, that all of money and finance would be transformed by programs running on decentralized computers that we collectively owned.
But it actually happened. It changed the world.
And you were a part of it.
Disclosure: These are my own views. Dragonfly is an investor in $MON, $MEGA, $ETH, $SOL, $HYPE, $SKY among many other tokens. Dragonfly believes in the exponential. This is not investment advice, but is advice of another kind.




I love DeFi OG $AAVE $UNI $LDO $SKY 🎯
Gần đây mới add thêm vào watchlist $ONDO $ENA $EIGEN $ETHFI $MORPHO $PENDLE 👀
Top 10 Projects by Token Buyback Spend in 2025
1. $HYPE – $644.6M
2. $ZRO – $150.0M
3. $PUMP – $138.2M
4. $RAY – $100.4M
5. $SKY – $78.8M
6. $JUP – $57.9M
7. $ENA – $40.7M
8. $RLB – $27.9M
9. $BONK – $27.3M
10. $AAVE – $23.6M
$USDS 刚推了一个 stUSDS,TVL在达到50M前,提供40%的APR,这是USD本位的硬补贴,在50M以后,从20%逐渐转为动态收益。
stUSDS的存款是给 $SKY 代币抵押借款的,风险等级最高,但在设计上与其他借贷市场隔离,初期LTV设置也很低,如果能接受这层风险,算是一个高息理财。
Sky对地域访问有严格限制,另外一个入口是在
@sparkdotfi ,目前存款量已经马上突破100M了,显示还有20%的收益,后续应该会逐渐进入动态利率阶段,另外需要注意的是在早期stUSDS是没有自动清算机制的,主要靠治理手动清算,项目方的考虑是应对早期SKY流动性不足的风险,未来如何调整还没说,但看起来这是一个长期规划。

橙子晚间解读 9.29
大饼昨晚开始的反弹力度不错,重回11w2支撑位,在沉寂了将近一周后终于又让市场看到崛起的信号了,而且现在距离10月仅剩两天了,币圈历史上的10月和11月都是收获季,还记得2017年94后市场跌得不要不要的,然后进入10月各种山寨就都新高了
2021年那波牛市也是,924政策后市场出现大反攻就是10月,我个人感觉这波市场的回调结束了,准备迎接10月牛回速归行情吧。随着大饼的反弹,山寨也开始企稳了,ETH/BTC,sol/btc 汇率也开始反弹,带动了其他山寨也跟着涨了一波,虽然幅度比较小,这是因为本来市场分化实在太严重了,很多山寨是长期处在熊市情绪中的,这种情绪必须得靠连续的拉盘才能够消除,而分化的另一边,$xpl $aster 这种直接把相关的板块给带到牛市了,我看了下昨天的数据,aster单日手续费收入14m,仅次于tether的22m,这个数字甚至是circle的两倍,hype最近反弹得也不错,昨晚空投的nft地板价直接6w刀,太香了,还有bybit的 perp dex $apex 也是持续新高,alpha 妖币 $myx 今天又起来了,重回15以上,这狗庄太强了, 我已经习惯这项目fdv百亿的设定了,只能说perp赛道无敌了,甚至显得uni、jup、cake 这种传统amm都过时了;
稳定币板块虽然 xpl 今天有所回调,但依然还是上了bithumb,价格保持在1.3以上,相关概念 $stbl $sky 走势也很不错,今晚即将上市的 $ff 也是稳定币发行方,而且会死dwf自己做的,以现在dwf tire 1 VC兼顾做市商的身份,以及和wlfi的亲密关系,我预期今晚很难低开了,毕竟同赛道 $ena fdv也是接近百亿的,今晚可以关注,尤其是xpl和aster都走出现象级行情,可能ff会复制粘贴一波。
最近一级市场的真的火,今晚还有 $yb 的预购,这波是根据你在legion上的积分申请额度,据说是300-400分可以申请500-1000u,400-500申请2000u,依次往上推,这个申请到的额度是可以保证投上的,不过大部分的额度是公募FCFS的,也就是说要gas war,这个销售是两天后的事儿,大家也可以提前准备好usdc和gas;另外今天又有一个新的天王项目放出ido消息了,项目是 @CantonNetwork ,这个是做公链的,从2016年到2025年一直在融资,总融资额度超过4亿美元,机构不仅有币安、polychain、circle这种偏币圈的,还有摩根大通、高盛、IBM、CME这种传统巨头,这项目可以看做对标monad吧,然后融资将会在@temple_ny上,国人可以做kyc,然后注册钱包,等ido开始就行了,另外之前base上的send 是canton的生态币,可以去 https://t.co/Iye0r6J0Yo 购买7000 SEND+ save20U就可以获得CC的优先排列,后面持有send可以拿到空投,总之这项目也是非常值得留子弹冲的;再来打新就是 @trylimitless 、币安Pre-TGE @zerobasezk、coinlist的tea 可以关注,存款的话首推 buidlpad 的新的理财 Momentum,然后是币安的 zerobase、USDAI、almanak 这几个都是存稳定币的,存ETH或者BTC可以去 @katana , 现在年化也有十几,这项目是polygon和gsr孵化的,估计年底发币。

defi szn
$pendle $eigen $ethfi $ldo $tree $ssv $sky
binance szn
$aster $sign $hemi $vana $meme
Perpetual futures trading for Avantis $AVNT, World Liberty Financial $WLFI, Sky $SKY, and Cronos $CRO will go live on 18 SEP 2025.
The opening of our AVNT-PERP, WLFI-PERP, SKY-PERP, and CRO-PERP markets will begin on or after 9:30 am UTC, if liquidity conditions are met, in regions where trading is supported.

🎉 The Maker (MKR) token swap and rebranding to Sky (SKY) has been completed for users
✅ $MKR has been reissued as $SKY to holders in a 1:24,000 ratio
✅ Trade, deposit and withdraw $SKY in the App and Exchange
@MakerDAO @SkyEcosystem
Sky ($SKY) is now available for trading in the https://t.co/hcDm4vdblb App 🔔
Purchase $SKY easily with USD, EUR, and 20+ fiat currencies.
Download the App to deposit and withdraw $SKY via ERC-20 now!
👉 https://t.co/64agWuQw56
For more details: https://t.co/zYbeNaCZrs
@SkyEcosystem
☁️Join $SKY/ $UB Futures Contest!
Trade & Share $20,000 HTX,
Ends September 19th!
Claim $3 in $HTX!
@SkyEcosystem
@Unibase_AI
Trade 👉

📢 #NewListing
#OKX has completed the MKR token migration and will list $SKY @SkyEcosystem!
🟢 $SKY/USDT Spot trading will begin at 11:00 AM on Sep 11 (UTC)
More:

橙子晚间解读 9.10
昨晚美国劳工局发布了非农年度基准修正数据,这个数据出现了大幅超预期下修,去年新增就业岗位相比前年减少了91.1万个,远超预期的70万,平均到到每月新增就业仅7万人,远低于前值的14.7万人,多家机构直接甩出衰退言论,说美国可能已于2024年3月时就陷入衰退了
当前美国经济要么处于衰退之中,要么正处于新一轮商业周期的开始。市场表现方面,昨晚数据公布也是先拉后砸的行情,前期市场上涨肯定还是降息预期尤其是50基点的预期又增加了,然后市场开始出现了衰退担忧,这就导致大饼昨天白天一整天的拉盘,瞬间被砸回去了,现在市场整体是一个震荡行情,白天拉盘,晚上就砸盘,反之也一样,这种行情算是变盘前的酝酿期,可能会持续到下周的fomc会议,届时是超预期的降息50基点走一波大行情,还是正常降息25,然后挤一挤水分,这都不好说,不过中长期来看,降息牛最终会到来的,大饼只要在10w上方,那么就是在长期上涨的通道中的,所以鉴定持有即可。
地缘政治上,昨晚又出事儿了,以色列消停了几天后又出动战机轰炸了,这次轰炸地点是卡塔尔,目标是哈马斯的高级领导人,看来这次以色列是铁了心的想要斩草除根了,而且这波应该也是和美国提前商量过了,川普表示是时候要求卡塔尔停止资助极端组织了,昨晚白宫新闻秘书证实了,说以色列袭击前,美国已经提前通知卡塔尔了,她明确表示,虽然轰炸卡塔尔是不妥的,但是为了消灭哈马斯,这一切是值得的。其实这也引发了另外一个点,自从咱们着大月饼之后,美国和欧洲做事儿都更加果断了,欧洲搞了个26国出兵乌克兰计划,美国也把国防部改成战争部,能感受到现在地缘政治上出现了变化,这种不确定性也导致了黄金不断地ATH,当然长期来看也是利好加密的。
宏观上,明晚还有FOMC前最后一个重要数据CPI要公布,这波市场对CPI普遍预期都很高,前值2.7%,预测值到了2.9%,不过这个数据应该是很难再影响到9月的FOMC决定了,但美联储还是很看重这个数据的,所以会影响鲍威尔的新闻发布会,另外有消息说9月米兰可能赶不上fomc会议,这个消息对市场来说是利空,多米兰一票是更有可能降息50基点的,虽然贝森特嘴硬说米兰能赶上,另外听说美国法院已经裁决库克可以在下周fomc会议上投票,这个是很利空的,这小子为了出口气也不投降息,这几天川普势力应该会找更高一级法院去推翻这个裁决,阻止库克参会。
还有个加密储备的消息,自从上次贝森特聊储备就是政府不卖币然后把市场给吓崩了后,市场再也没有等来任何关于加密储备的好消息,现在感觉推进这事儿的就参议员卢米斯了,不过昨晚还是有好消息,川普的新任加密顾问patrick witt 他正接过前任bo hines的接力棒,敦促立法者制定全面加密政策,同时推动稳定币法案的落地,然后还有建立联邦加密储备库也是首要任务之一。这个算是一个小利好新闻吧,不过按照我的理解,现在储备加密最重要的是钱从哪来,这还得靠财政部和商务部,比如把其他储备资金转换成大饼,或者关税的百分之多少用来买大饼,这都是终极利好。
最后说山寨,其实现在强势币已经开始走主升浪行情的,比如 $ip 昨晚一个利好就ath了,hype也是ath,$pump 这几天也天天涨,马上0.006了,相比ido价格涨了50%,而且现在链上其实还没有那么火爆,这已经说明资金已经开始认可头部山寨了,然后wld 又是有财库又是上upbit,近期都翻倍了,整个ai板块也再次被拉了起来,$ath $kaito $virtual 也都被拉起来了, 另外币安近期现货开启了上币热潮,最近几天上了好多现货,$wlfi $somi $open $usde 这几个已经上了,还有今晚的 $linea 明晚的 $holo ,合约也是疯狂上,最近两天就有 $flock $sky $avnt $open ,疯狂上币的背后其实也是说明山寨情绪好起来了,现在市场只要等 $myx 结束表演,可能就要迎来百花齐放了,再来今天币安下架板块也都起飞了,$bake $slf $hifi 底部上来都是翻倍还多,能看出现在市场资金还是比较饥渴的,但凡有炒作点的项目,资金都会疯冲一波,这时候我们要做的就是拿好手里的优质币,各个赛道龙头,财库币、ETF币,平台币、再质押、公链、AI、RWA,这些都是不错的赛道,我个人觉得一旦大饼、ETH重新走出ath,本轮唯一山寨季就要来了。

$SKY @SkyEcosystem USDT Futures is now live on #Bitget, with up to 75x leverage and trading bots support.
🚀 Start trading now:
现在有稳定基本面的纯加密叙事只有RWA了,
换句话说,RWA是当前最清晰、机构持续加码的主线。
一般散户只需要盯着几个主流标的,因此怎么投机,换句话说洞察哪些催化剂就变得很重要,这里简单做一下指南:
1. $ONDO
ondo的主要逻辑是将传统金融巨头(如贝莱德BlackRock)发行的现实世界基金BUIDL作为底层资产,发行成可以在链上自由流转的代币OUSG,让加密用户合规赚取美国国债的收益。
因此ondo催化剂主要有三个:
1.OUSG/USDY的集成
2.贝莱德BUIDL基金的资产管理规模(AUM)
3.传统券商是否开始采用Ondo的链上申赎流程
2. $LINK
传统金融机构想把资产搬到链上,需要一个安全、合规的跨链桥梁来传递信息和结算资金,这基本上是Chainlink的CCIP在落地的叙事。
LINK的核心催化剂也很好理解:
-大型银行、托管行或基金公司宣布采用CCIP技术进行跨链结算
-CCIP的采用率
3. $MKR ( $SKY )
MakerDAO是稳定币DAI的发行方,其金库中配置了大量的RWA(主要是美国国债)来产生稳定收益,支撑DAI的价值
MKR现在的核心参与思路还是以持有现货为主,关键的催化剂就是Endgame计划,投资者需要根据其Endgame计划的进展和国债仓位调整来把握节奏。
4. $POLYX
Polymesh是一条专为证券类代币和合规RWA设计的公链,有Republic、Galaxy等机构合作
POLYX就是典型的强庄币,属于是一等一好的卫星仓位,如果有一个或多个资产发行平台或托管机构宣布集成Polymesh就能带动一轮做市,再或者有地区或者交易所的试点合作也能带动一波涨幅。
当然重要的是什么时候上车,主要观察两个指标:
一个是贝莱德 BlackRock BUIDL的AUM增长,这个是整个RWA和ONDO的核心指标,其次是富兰克林 Franklin BENJI ,算是传统金融巨头布局RWA的试水,两个质保流入能力基本上等同于RWA赛道的活力,做市商和庄家借助资金流入成绩也能有充分的动力拉盘做市。

















































